Would someone care to post a breakdown of the composition of the delegate universe? What is the total number of delegates? How many were elected at the caucuses, how many are ex officio (and of these, how many are mayors, legislators, state committee members), how many are add-ons for diversity (youth-minority-disability), etc.?
According to the Glob (I did a “search” for this so don’t have a URL):
If Patrick’s campaign can get all its delegates to Worcester and keep them in their seats, the former federal civil rights prosecutor would have the support of more than 2,500 delegates, according to [campaign manager John] Walsh.
As of Friday, 74.3 percent of the 5,058 delegates eligible to attend had paid their convention fee, according to the state party. A simple majority of those present is needed to win the convention endorsement, but just 15 percent to win access to the Sept. 19 primary ballot.
About 60 percent of the convention delegates were chosen at the caucuses. The rest are ex-officio party leaders and elected officials and “add-ons,” more than 700 selected by the Democratic State Committee to reflect racial, gender, age, and other demographic balance. Every campaign is chasing support from the add-ons.
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I think a more interesting question is what will be the order of finish? Sounds like Walsh is being conservative, since the CW is that Patrick will win on the first (and therefore only) ballot, and he’s basically claiming only 50% of the vote. So how will the other 50% be divided? Presumably, some will go to Patrick, giving him his first-ballot victory.
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What about the rest? Even split? More to Reilly? More to Gabrieli?
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I can tell you from everything I’ve been able to determine about my delegation (some of it directly, and some of it secondhand), I don’t see any “defections” to Gabrieli from either the Reilly or Patrick camps. Sure, the Gabber may pick up a few votes, but they will come, from what I’ve seen so far, anyway, from delegates who were “undeclared” before. And,btw, that’s not an insignificant number.
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As with many delegations, I’m sure (based on the press reports of the caucuses), Patrick has the majority of support in our District. The ones who are not supporting Patrick are pretty evenly divided between Reilly and “other” (meaning uncommitted, or tight-lipped, or I just don’t know). So, in the unlikely case that all the “other” votes go to Gabrieli, it will be a tie for second. Since, I suspect, the “other” vote will actually be split by the three candidates, my prediction is that Reilly will come in second and Gabrieli third.
cephmesays
The only votes from my town that I “know” are going to gab are from two ex-officos who were undecided at the time of the caucusses.
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In general we have extensive support for Patrick in my distrct with a smattering of other votes. I would not be surprised to see 2/3rd go to Deval on the first vote with the rest split between Chris and Tom.
stomvsays
I think that’s far too low. I’m not claiming you’re wrong; I’m pointing out that maybe moire than 60% of the delegates should be directly accountable for their actions at the convention, instead of a bunch of party insiders who won’t lose their opportunity to be a delegate in the future based on their behavior at the convention.
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It’s also worth noting that while the insiders can’t act in concert to provide 50%+1, it is enough to ensure that not one but two non-“popular” candidates can get on the Democratic primary ballot in September.
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Just rambling out loud…
alexwillsays
How is 60% a “far too low” estimate. Do you know something about the level of support for each candidate among non-elected delegates? Cause all I know is the “2 to 1” number form the caucuses, which would give Deval ~65% if that was all there was to it, but it’s not… still, the upper bound can’t be more than 65%-70%, so 60% is not that low of an estimate.
publiussays
…the percentage of delegates elected at caucuses, not to an estimate of Patrick’s delegate strength.
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Is it true that only 60% of the delegates are elected at caucuses? If so, institutional players and “add-on” delegates are a bigger percentage of delegates than I had thought. Does anyone have more of a primary source on this issue than an undocumented Globe article?
alexwillsays
i read it as a response to the orignial post, makes more sense now đŸ™‚
cephmesays
I will give you the numbers and percentages from my senate district which I expect is pretty representative. The numbers I am presenting here are not including alternates all of whom were elected at the caucuses but do not have a vote unless one of the other roles does not show up at the convention.
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60.3% Elected Delegates
11.9% Add on (youth and affirmative action)
25.4% Ex-officio
2.4% I did not understand the code
100% Total
cephmesays
I meant elected at the caucuses for “elected” sorry.
cephmesays
If my number are correct and ALL 25.4% of the exoficios went for Chris and Tom, that is not enough to get them both on the ballot. I would expect they both make it anyways, but it is not assured by simply getting those votes, they will need help from other caucus delegate and add ons most of who are with Deval.
About 2/3 of the elected delegates (estimated) are supporting Deval Patrick. Most of the rest are Reilly delegates, I believe. Reilly may not have enough elected delegates to get 15% of the total, but he probably only needs a couple hundred of the ex-officios and add-ons. I don’t think he’s at risk. It’s Gabrieli who needs to depend primarily on ex-officio delegates, and may not make it.
cephmesays
Just saying they can’t both get by on ex-officos alone thereby totally snubbing their noses at the caucus delegates. Reilly has some delegates in my town and I expect a smattering of some here and there with Menino’s gang should get him in.
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Personally I would be surprised if Reilly doesn’t make the cut, shocked if Patrick doesn’t get the endorsement, and not surprised if Gabrielli falls a couple dozen votes short causing a major ruckas at the convention.
yellowdogdemsays
Some of those “party insiders” are nothing more than town or ward chairs, who are held accountable by running for office every two years. Other “insiders” are elected State Committee members and Democratic State Reps and Senators, who are also elected. So I think that there is accountability for the so-called party insiders, just not accountability to the people who showed up at caucuses. Myself, I think it is fine that the Convention represents different interests. And I speak as a party insider (ward chair) supporting Patrick.
You’re absolutely right. The percentage of elected delegates is much lower this year than in past conventions.
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After the last nominating convention dragged on so long, a commission (the Dukakis-McGovern commission) was set up by the party to study and recommend changes. They found that one of the problems with the state convention is that it has too many delegates to be manageable. They recommended a significant reduction in the number of delegates, and worked out a careful formula that would keep the percentage of elected and ex-officio delegates the same.
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The party was happy to reduce the size of the convention. As for that careful formula, they just threw it out. They reduced the size of the convention to the level the Dukakis-McGovern commission recommended, but took that bite 100% out of elected delegates.
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When challenged about this, they’ve so far responded “we’re just implementing the recommendations of the Dukakis-McGovern commission” and then go on about the logistical problems with having a huge convention, and why it was necessary to reduce the number of delegates. I remember this question, and answer, given in public at the DCA Day at Roxbury Community College last year, and I got this answer again in person from Martina Jackson at a Deval Patrick event in Newton.
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When you hear about a split between progressives and the in crowd in the state party, this is a perfect example of what the split is about. Another example: a number of progressives were going to run for State Committee this year, partly to remedy things like this, but the State Committee called off its own 2-year elections and extended everyone’s seat until 2008 (this was another insider-favorable “interpretation” of the illegal party charter adopted last year).
Anything from 40% to 70% on the first ballot wouldn’t really surprise me. A lot depends on how many ex-officio delegates actually show up. If they all come, and few of them vote for Patrick, he’ll be in the 40s even if almost all of his delegates show up and stay faithful.
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I guess I’ll vote for something low-60s though.
If Gabrieli can get more votes at the convention than Reilly, even though Gabrieli skipped the caucuses and Reilly at least asked for support, and did run slates in a number of cities and towns, it would be pretty sad and unfortunate. I like Gabrieli as a candidate more than Reilly, but Reilly was in the race and Gabrieli wasn’t.
beth-csays
What will Gabrieli do if he does not make the ballot? He’s bought alot of public attention and there will probably be an outcry if he’s not on the ballot. I hope he falls short but then comes out strong for Patrick. He has a responsibility to the party and the state in addition to himself. I think his run has been very selfish.
centralmaguysays
How has Gabrieli’s run been selfish? Is it because he has spent hours everyday on the phone courting delegates since he got into the race, while Reilly and Deval only sent slick mail and made automated calls? Is it because polled likely Democratic primary voters like what he has to say and, more important, what he has accomplished?
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Sounds like a frightened Deval supporter to me…
beth-csays
Yes, I am a Patrick supporter and yes I am frightened of Gabrieli.
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While Reilly and Patrick and Murray and Silbert and Goldberg and Kelley were campaigning before the caucuses, Gabrieli was waiting to be annointed Lt. Gov. All these candidates courted the public and won delegates to the convention. Had Gabrieli been running earlier, I’m sure he could have won many delegates to the convention.
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Of course he’s spending hours every day on the phone courting delegates and of course his campaign now doesn’t look like Reilly’s or Patrick’s. Gabrieli has to do now what the other candidates did before the caucuses and will do after the convention.
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The differences between Patrick and Reilly, and between Gabrieli and Reilly are clear. The differences between Patrick and Gabreili are more subtle. If you like Patrick or Gabreili, how does spliting the Patrick/Gabreili vote seem good?
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If Gabrieli fails at the convention, the public, which has been seeing alot of him, will think something’s rotten with the Dem party and the system. How is that good?
The Patrick campaign sent out volunteers to hand-deliver notes to every undecided delegate.
alexwillsays
Based on the delegate ratios from Dan Payne’s article today Patrick coul pitch shutout (which is a clearly exagerated title), I made this rough estimated based on DP and TR keeping 90% of their 2/3 and 1/3 of caucus delegates and then splitting the ex-officio etc 1/3 each:
publius says
Would someone care to post a breakdown of the composition of the delegate universe? What is the total number of delegates? How many were elected at the caucuses, how many are ex officio (and of these, how many are mayors, legislators, state committee members), how many are add-ons for diversity (youth-minority-disability), etc.?
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Thanks.
michael-forbes-wilcox says
According to the Glob (I did a “search” for this so don’t have a URL):
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I think a more interesting question is what will be the order of finish? Sounds like Walsh is being conservative, since the CW is that Patrick will win on the first (and therefore only) ballot, and he’s basically claiming only 50% of the vote. So how will the other 50% be divided? Presumably, some will go to Patrick, giving him his first-ballot victory.
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What about the rest? Even split? More to Reilly? More to Gabrieli?
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I can tell you from everything I’ve been able to determine about my delegation (some of it directly, and some of it secondhand), I don’t see any “defections” to Gabrieli from either the Reilly or Patrick camps. Sure, the Gabber may pick up a few votes, but they will come, from what I’ve seen so far, anyway, from delegates who were “undeclared” before. And,btw, that’s not an insignificant number.
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As with many delegations, I’m sure (based on the press reports of the caucuses), Patrick has the majority of support in our District. The ones who are not supporting Patrick are pretty evenly divided between Reilly and “other” (meaning uncommitted, or tight-lipped, or I just don’t know). So, in the unlikely case that all the “other” votes go to Gabrieli, it will be a tie for second. Since, I suspect, the “other” vote will actually be split by the three candidates, my prediction is that Reilly will come in second and Gabrieli third.
cephme says
The only votes from my town that I “know” are going to gab are from two ex-officos who were undecided at the time of the caucusses.
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In general we have extensive support for Patrick in my distrct with a smattering of other votes. I would not be surprised to see 2/3rd go to Deval on the first vote with the rest split between Chris and Tom.
stomv says
I think that’s far too low. I’m not claiming you’re wrong; I’m pointing out that maybe moire than 60% of the delegates should be directly accountable for their actions at the convention, instead of a bunch of party insiders who won’t lose their opportunity to be a delegate in the future based on their behavior at the convention.
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It’s also worth noting that while the insiders can’t act in concert to provide 50%+1, it is enough to ensure that not one but two non-“popular” candidates can get on the Democratic primary ballot in September.
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Just rambling out loud…
alexwill says
How is 60% a “far too low” estimate. Do you know something about the level of support for each candidate among non-elected delegates? Cause all I know is the “2 to 1” number form the caucuses, which would give Deval ~65% if that was all there was to it, but it’s not… still, the upper bound can’t be more than 65%-70%, so 60% is not that low of an estimate.
publius says
…the percentage of delegates elected at caucuses, not to an estimate of Patrick’s delegate strength.
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Is it true that only 60% of the delegates are elected at caucuses? If so, institutional players and “add-on” delegates are a bigger percentage of delegates than I had thought. Does anyone have more of a primary source on this issue than an undocumented Globe article?
alexwill says
i read it as a response to the orignial post, makes more sense now đŸ™‚
cephme says
I will give you the numbers and percentages from my senate district which I expect is pretty representative. The numbers I am presenting here are not including alternates all of whom were elected at the caucuses but do not have a vote unless one of the other roles does not show up at the convention.
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60.3% Elected Delegates
11.9% Add on (youth and affirmative action)
25.4% Ex-officio
2.4% I did not understand the code
100% Total
cephme says
I meant elected at the caucuses for “elected” sorry.
cephme says
If my number are correct and ALL 25.4% of the exoficios went for Chris and Tom, that is not enough to get them both on the ballot. I would expect they both make it anyways, but it is not assured by simply getting those votes, they will need help from other caucus delegate and add ons most of who are with Deval.
cos says
About 2/3 of the elected delegates (estimated) are supporting Deval Patrick. Most of the rest are Reilly delegates, I believe. Reilly may not have enough elected delegates to get 15% of the total, but he probably only needs a couple hundred of the ex-officios and add-ons. I don’t think he’s at risk. It’s Gabrieli who needs to depend primarily on ex-officio delegates, and may not make it.
cephme says
Just saying they can’t both get by on ex-officos alone thereby totally snubbing their noses at the caucus delegates. Reilly has some delegates in my town and I expect a smattering of some here and there with Menino’s gang should get him in.
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Personally I would be surprised if Reilly doesn’t make the cut, shocked if Patrick doesn’t get the endorsement, and not surprised if Gabrielli falls a couple dozen votes short causing a major ruckas at the convention.
yellowdogdem says
Some of those “party insiders” are nothing more than town or ward chairs, who are held accountable by running for office every two years. Other “insiders” are elected State Committee members and Democratic State Reps and Senators, who are also elected. So I think that there is accountability for the so-called party insiders, just not accountability to the people who showed up at caucuses. Myself, I think it is fine that the Convention represents different interests. And I speak as a party insider (ward chair) supporting Patrick.
cos says
You’re absolutely right. The percentage of elected delegates is much lower this year than in past conventions.
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After the last nominating convention dragged on so long, a commission (the Dukakis-McGovern commission) was set up by the party to study and recommend changes. They found that one of the problems with the state convention is that it has too many delegates to be manageable. They recommended a significant reduction in the number of delegates, and worked out a careful formula that would keep the percentage of elected and ex-officio delegates the same.
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The party was happy to reduce the size of the convention. As for that careful formula, they just threw it out. They reduced the size of the convention to the level the Dukakis-McGovern commission recommended, but took that bite 100% out of elected delegates.
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When challenged about this, they’ve so far responded “we’re just implementing the recommendations of the Dukakis-McGovern commission” and then go on about the logistical problems with having a huge convention, and why it was necessary to reduce the number of delegates. I remember this question, and answer, given in public at the DCA Day at Roxbury Community College last year, and I got this answer again in person from Martina Jackson at a Deval Patrick event in Newton.
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When you hear about a split between progressives and the in crowd in the state party, this is a perfect example of what the split is about. Another example: a number of progressives were going to run for State Committee this year, partly to remedy things like this, but the State Committee called off its own 2-year elections and extended everyone’s seat until 2008 (this was another insider-favorable “interpretation” of the illegal party charter adopted last year).
cos says
Anything from 40% to 70% on the first ballot wouldn’t really surprise me. A lot depends on how many ex-officio delegates actually show up. If they all come, and few of them vote for Patrick, he’ll be in the 40s even if almost all of his delegates show up and stay faithful.
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I guess I’ll vote for something low-60s though.
michael-forbes-wilcox says
Cos,
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I’m glad you’re willing to go out on a limb with your percentage bet, but how about telling us who you think will be second?
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As I stated, I think Gabrieli will be (a distant) third, but I’m interested in the buzz from other parts of the state.
cos says
If Gabrieli can get more votes at the convention than Reilly, even though Gabrieli skipped the caucuses and Reilly at least asked for support, and did run slates in a number of cities and towns, it would be pretty sad and unfortunate. I like Gabrieli as a candidate more than Reilly, but Reilly was in the race and Gabrieli wasn’t.
beth-c says
What will Gabrieli do if he does not make the ballot? He’s bought alot of public attention and there will probably be an outcry if he’s not on the ballot. I hope he falls short but then comes out strong for Patrick. He has a responsibility to the party and the state in addition to himself. I think his run has been very selfish.
centralmaguy says
How has Gabrieli’s run been selfish? Is it because he has spent hours everyday on the phone courting delegates since he got into the race, while Reilly and Deval only sent slick mail and made automated calls? Is it because polled likely Democratic primary voters like what he has to say and, more important, what he has accomplished?
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Sounds like a frightened Deval supporter to me…
beth-c says
Yes, I am a Patrick supporter and yes I am frightened of Gabrieli.
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While Reilly and Patrick and Murray and Silbert and Goldberg and Kelley were campaigning before the caucuses, Gabrieli was waiting to be annointed Lt. Gov. All these candidates courted the public and won delegates to the convention. Had Gabrieli been running earlier, I’m sure he could have won many delegates to the convention.
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Of course he’s spending hours every day on the phone courting delegates and of course his campaign now doesn’t look like Reilly’s or Patrick’s. Gabrieli has to do now what the other candidates did before the caucuses and will do after the convention.
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The differences between Patrick and Reilly, and between Gabrieli and Reilly are clear. The differences between Patrick and Gabreili are more subtle. If you like Patrick or Gabreili, how does spliting the Patrick/Gabreili vote seem good?
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If Gabrieli fails at the convention, the public, which has been seeing alot of him, will think something’s rotten with the Dem party and the system. How is that good?
sco says
The Patrick campaign sent out volunteers to hand-deliver notes to every undecided delegate.
alexwill says
Based on the delegate ratios from Dan Payne’s article today Patrick coul pitch shutout (which is a clearly exagerated title), I made this rough estimated based on DP and TR keeping 90% of their 2/3 and 1/3 of caucus delegates and then splitting the ex-officio etc 1/3 each:
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Totals 3,500 1,500 5,000 100%
Patrick 2,100 500 2,600 52%
Reilly 1,050 500 1,550 31%
Gabrieli 350 500 850 17%