Sure, he continues to do local events and fundraisers. Yes, his minions continue to go door-to-door and hand out pledge cards. I imagine the number of IDed voters on his web tool continues to grow.
But I bet I’m not the only DP supporter dreading the next polls. The last poll on the Democratic primary (I believe it was Rasmussen) has Deval ahead of Gabrielli by about a dozen points and Reilly a few farther back.
Don’t get me wrong: Patrick ran an excellent campaign to that point to achieve that result. But that was then. There are almost seven weeks to go until the primary.
Retail campaigning, i.e., local events, voter ID, e-mails, and a great candidate can clearly take you a long way. But wholesale campaigning — either paid or earned media — can sway vast numbers of voters in a short period of time. Is Patrick going to begin making news and/or buying ads soon?
OK. I grant that it’s hard to make news in today’s media climate — small news hole, cynical reporters, emphasis on sensational news and human interest. But is Patrick even trying?
(Yes, Harshbarger’s endorsement yielded a good Globe picture and story today, but this kind of earned media is rare for Patrick — about the only thing rarer is Patrick’s paid media, which doesn’t exist yet.)
Sure, Patrick’s campaign has less money than his opponents’. But isn’t it time for Patrick to put some more of his own money into the race? Maybe he believes that “a different kind of politics” will overcome lots of paid media. I wish.
Is Patrick cutting it too close by waiting this long to go on the air? Or is he cannily reserving his resources another few weeks until more people are paying attention? Or is he waiting because he really has limited funds and needs to be on the air the last three weeks?
Or does the Patrick campaign really think wholesale, media politics has become passe? Do they believe that the 36% who said “Patrick” in the last poll is solidly theirs, and that if they just keep going door-to-door they’ll get to the low 40s? Do they not worry that even mushy, vague positive ads will start picking off some who had previously leaned to Deval, let alone more pointed ads that will begin sometime soon? Has the Patrick high command actaully drunk the fabled Kool Aid?
I can almost feel the Gabrielli campaign’s “comparative” ads coming.
frankskeffington says
…sometimes you have to go to camapaign with the tools and strategy you have.
<
p>
From a tactical point of view, this is the campaign Deval and John Walsh chose to run. Deval maybe rich, but he doesn’t have the kind of “stupid” money that Gabrieli or Healey have.
<
p>
For the last year, Deval has done damn good at fund raising and he’s been spending it on field, firing up volunteers (he spent $40,000 plus for that Faneuil Hall rally in the spring). Now he has about $1.5 million in the bank and instead of wholesale, they made the decision long ago to do retail. And again, while I obviously have no inside knowledge, to expect a guy who came from nothing and now maybe is worth maybe $5 to 10 million–with monthly mortages in the estimated neighborhood of $25,000, to plow all of it into a campaign is not realistic. (And, we really don’t know what Deval is worth–maybe far less than $5 million and he may have lots of stock options that can’t be exercised).
<
p>
Sure Deval will put a million or so more into TV and have a total TV buy of $2 to upwards of 3 million. But that kind of money only buys you a few weeks nowadays and Deval has to keep his powder dry.
<
p>
As someone who supports Chris, I think Deval’s seating good for the primary. Sure Reilly and Chris may eat into the lead a bit…but in these dog days…who really is paying attention (and frankly all the ads have been weak)? And the free media today–front page Photo Metro Region was worth $100,000 in paid media.
<
p>
This primary is Deval’s to lose. The biggest question in my mind is which of the other two candidates will go negative first? I think they are both hoping and praying the other goes first, because in a 3 way race, the candidate sitting on the sidelines, while the other two fight, usually wins. Besides, how do you run negative ads against a candidate who’s not on TV? No one will know who you’re talking about. The negatives will start after Labor Day and Deval will be on the tube and in debates by that point.
<
p>
I won’t worry…partially becuase you can’t change direction of the strategy now, it was set a long time ago. Your doing retail and don’t let the politics of cynisism (sp) overcome you (snark)
<
p>
But I do have to chuckle a bit at your apprehension! And despite my comforting words, Chris does have a chance to pull it out. But I think he needs to have a bolder approach–more stem sell research ideas–and gambling ain’t it. Of course by September 10th, if bold doesn’t work, you also can drag down the guy on top.
publius says
he’s going to have to be the one with some boldness and creativity, in order to make news and earn media exposure. He has to fill in the time between now and Labor Day with media events, endorsements, speeches with new content.
<
p>
If he tries to sit on his lead, or thinks that just executing the (great) field plan will win, Gabrieli — the Steinbrenner of Democratic politics in Massachusetts — will make him pay.
<
p>
Despite your bemused snark, Frank, you get a 6 for the Rumsfeld reference alone.
frankskeffington says
Because I am coming to the defense of Deval based on the critical comments of Publius.
<
p>
Despite my reservations of Deval, he has defined “bold” and “creativity” in this race. It got him to where he is and if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Here’s another tired (but true) cliche…plan your work and work your plan.
<
p>
As I said, this is the plan Deval and Walsh decided on. I don’t disagree with your commentsthey are very valid. I assume that the downside of the current strategy was discussed when they agreed on this plan. There are downsides in every strategy and once you make your decisionimplement it, dont second guess.
<
p>
With a million and a half bucks in the bank and a spending “burn rate” of a few hundred dollars a month on the grass roots program, what are you going to do anyway? Hope Deval is worth close to $20 million instead of around $5 million and have him plow into $5 million of TV?
<
p>
The time to criticize this strategy was last spring, {which I did http://www.bluemassg…]. I criticized the strategy because I think your points are sound. But right now they are too little to late. The plan is in place. Strap yourself in and go for the ride or jump off the bandwagon. Besides, so far it’s clear sailing.
<
p>
I wish I got paid by the cliches I write.
lolorb says
today because I just gave Frank a 6 for acknowledging that the Deval campaign has integrity and consistency. It’s not about money, it’s about people. I’m sure Deval will be on air at some point and will emphasize his feelings about bringing back the meaning of community. I can’t imagine anyone else addressing the issue more honestly than Deval.
frankskeffington says
and you’re not half way there–you either have “integrity and consistency” about your decision in picking that spot to cross–or you panic and drown. Of course you still may drown, but at least you kept your cool about it.
eb3-fka-ernie-boch-iii says
No reason to panic and run ads. Plenty of time.
frankskeffington says
My wife just got her second mailing in less than a week. (No doubt mailed before Chris’ mother passed.)
<
p>
Yes the next polls will be interesting. Walsh is a genius. Walsh blew it. We’ll know September 20th.
sco says
Must be targetted mailings. I haven’t heard a peep out of them since the convention.
frankskeffington says
I ahven’t getten any mailings. Maybe just women. We have different last names, so I doubt there eliminating dupe voters in Households. All I can say is she got two mailings of two different brochures.
susan-m says
So did a friend of mine. (also a woman) This friend came to the caucus to vote for our Deval slate, but she was still undecided. I’ve been keeping in touch, sending her e-mails of Deval’s speeches and when he’s in the papers and stuff.
<
p>
She came by my house recently to pick up her boys who play in my son’s band and just for a goof, I gave her my canvassing spiel and handed her some lit. We had a good laugh about it and she said, “okay, you got me.” She went on to say that she’d been getting mailers and saw tons of commercials from “that wavy haired guy” but there was no way she was voting for him because, (wait for it….)”he’s a Republican.” chortle
david says
No idea which list my name came from, but I don’t think I’m on very many Dem insider lists.
frankskeffington says
she thought Gabs was a Republican?
susan-m says
based on what she’s seen from Gabrieli’s ads and mailers.
<
p>
I think a better question would be, why doesn’t Gabs (and Reilly for that matter) say they’re Democrats?
<
p>
It stands to reason that not saying what party you’re from could cut either way.
<
p>
Perhaps the Gabrieli camp thinks that voters will remember him from his 2004 run with O’Brien? Not so. Just as an example, there are many members of my DTC, people who are somewhat active in local and state politics who had no idea who Chris was and were very surprised he’d run in 2004 when I reminded them.
frankskeffington says
…I got, mentioned he was a Democrat, so what are you talking about?
<
p>
BTW, I saw some Deval vis today and there was no mention he was a Democrat on his signs. Sorry to be negative, but I think claiming that Chris (and Tom) is avioding being ID as a Dem is a cheap shot (I got the two mailers in front of me). For someone who wants to be on DSC member, you bash fellow Democrats without a second thought, using untruths.
lolorb says
Susan was providing a first hand account of what she has encountered, and I have to say that I’ve heard the same things from certain town committee people. I have not seen the Gab mailers (and if I did get one, I would probably toss it with all the other junk that I get), but I don’t think Gabs says anything about being a Democratic candidate in his ads (nor does Reilly). Comparing a vis to TV ads is apples and oranges. Susan was not bashing nor was she using untruths.
frankskeffington says
We are talking mailers–that is the first hand account you are referring to. If she steered off to other things, she should make that clear.
susan-m says
You’ll note that I said ads (meaning commercials) and mailers.
susan-m says
Before you accuse ME of bashing dems without a second thought you should take a closer look at your own behavior. There was NOTHING untruthful in my post. Have you ever LOOKED at Chris Gabrieli’s website? Take a look at it again and tell me EXACTLY where it says “democrat” “democratic” or “Democrat for Governor”
<
p>
You know what, let me do you a favor and I’ll just give you a link to a screenshot where I have helpfully used ctrl-F to see where on this webpage it says “democrat.” You know how many times those words appear? ZERO
<
p>
How about Tom Reilly? Look for yourself. Do you see where it says Tom Reilly, Democrat for Governor? You don’t? Because it’s not on his webpage (nor his yard signs) either.
<
p>
I want to know what Deval Patrick signs you are talking about. Were they the “No Ordinary Leader” or “Together We Can” signs? Those signs both clearly state “Deval Patrick Democrat for Governor”
<
p>
Now, if you go back to the beginning of the campaign Deval had signs that were used to advertise his website They had his name and his website URL, but if you go to http://www.devalpatrick.com there is no dodge, and no hustle, it just flat out says, “Deval Patrick, Democrat for Governor of Massachusetts.”
<
p>
Frank, before YOU go around taking cheap shots at people and accusing them of using “untruths” which is really just a passive-aggressive way of calling me a liar, you really need to get your goddamned facts straight.
eury13 says
bob-neer says
Per Frank: Chris “Steinbrenner” Gabrieli. Nice. Captures the general antipathy to folks who try to buy kudos (Achilles, among others, registered some very firm views against this), along with the fact that this is often the way to win. I doubt the Gabrieli campaign will be much enamored of it, however.
publius says
Unless Frank did so in an earlier post that I unconsciously swiped, I should get credit for recognizing the similarities between the Yankees and the Gabrieli campaign.
<
p>
Can “Evil Empire” be far behind? Or maybe, given Gab’s tendency to try and split the difference on the issues between Patrick and Reilly, it should be “Weasel Empire.”
frankskeffington says
I totally missed the reference
renaissance-man says
?
sabutai says
I know this will invite (yet more) attacks from the Deval folks round here, but I would imagine Deval’s saving the cash for GOTV.
<
p>
Deval is hip, handsome, and has momentum, which tends to magnify one’s standing in polls. Whether it’s Dean (in Iowa), or Paul Hackett, there’s a history of the glam momentum candidate stumbling because they count on support that is an inch deep. I think a lot of his current support remains from the novelty factor, and theexcitement factor. Not exactly rock solid. When you consider that much of Reilly’s support is from ages ago, chances are they’re going to stick around. How solid is Deval’s support?
<
p>
What I’m saying is that much of Deval’s support is porbably lighter than his supporters would liketo believe. he’s not the only one, but Reilly can rely on significant union/urban turnout machines, and Chris can hope to spend for one. How is Deval gonna get his lukewarm bandwagoners to the polls?
<
p>
On an unrelated note, in lil East Bridgewater, I’ve seen one lawn sign for governor. Chris Gabrieli.