O’Brien 33%
Birmingham 24
Reich 25
Tolman 18
I don’t want to oversimplify, and I know y’all will tell me six ways that I have, but it’s striking to me that Reich and Tolman together got 43% (actually 42.5% before rounding) four years ago.
I know there are some Reich voters who won’t be voting for Patrick, but pretty few, right? I know that not all Tolman’s supporters were Clean Elections liberals — some were lunchbucket labor Dems who may be more inclined to be with Reilly this time than Patrick.
But, by the same token, a fair number of O’Brien’s voters were not moderates or conservatives, they were liberals, especially liberal women, who wanted to elect a woman governor. Many of those liberals are probably with Patrick this time around.
All of this says to me that last week’s polling numbers seem to reflect patterns from four years ago. Add in Patrick’s unusual ability to perform and connect as a candidate, a field organization that is as good or better than anything in the state in the last quarter century, and a campaign that has been fairly quiet and not likely to inspire a large turnout of unenrolleds, and I think Gabrieli and Reilly have a very large mountain to climb.
In light of the 2002 results, Patrick getting to the 42-44% level looks very doable. If he just hits the low end of that range, and Reilly receives even 18% of the vote (just three-quarters of what Birmingham got four years ago), Patrick will win.
lolorb says
reading the poll in advance? Right now, it looks like over 50% might be doable. Two more days!
publius says
I had not seen the Globe poll when I posted yesterday. I was simply struck by the data from 2002.
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This is probably way too simplistic, but in light of this morning’s poll, I’d say there are probably more former O’Brien and Birmingham people with Patrick than there are former Tolman people with Reilly or Gabrieli.
lolorb says
there’s a completely different shuffling of folks in this race. I know former Romney supporters who like Patrick. It’s really about his style, and I think Healey may be in for a surprise or two with Deval.
sabutai says
“I know former Romney supporters who like Patrick.”
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Hey, if I were a Republican, I’d be cheering on Patrick with all my might.
lolorb says
they want Deval because he’s such an easy target. Pick the guy in the middle who doesn’t stand for anything and represents so little opposition to Republican ideas. “Electability” is the key. Must nominate someone who won’t disagree with Healey. The best choice is the one who is willing to attack the majority of the Dem party to get the nod. Yup. I got it.
pablo says
In my town, Reich was the overwhelming favorite, but there was considerable support for O’Brien, Tolman, and some for Birmingham.
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This year, among the political leadership, the Reich people are with Deval. The Tolman people are with Deval. The Birmingham people are with Deval. The O’Brien people are with Deval. It’s amazing. I can go to a Deval event and find people I almost never agree with.
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Of course, we are a liberal community, but even so, this level of agreement is quite unusual. Given Keller’s numbers, Deval might top 50% in a three way race.
lolorb says
“together we can”. It really does mean something to a lot of people in this state.
lynne says
One of our coordinators (we’re at 3 now, me and two other guys) is seriously more conservative than me, or rather, I’m strikingly more liberal than him. Not to mention all the “connected” people in Lowell he knows, you could have SWORN they would be Reilly people (or even Gabs) but they are for Deval. I was in shock when I heard some of the names of Deval supporters in my city…people who would not get in the same room with me if they were paid.
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I’m not holding out for 50%. I’ll just be happy to win, frankly. Winning by 10% would make me estatic. Being competative in Lowell would have me running out in the street waking the neighbors in celebration. I don’t expect to win here – even IF my gut says we have a shot, given how the voter ID went. I’ll be happy to come in seond in Lowell, and win overall.
shack says
I don’t know whether teachers made up a big block of votes in 2002, but I guess many would have been with Birmingham, who supported more money for Chapter 70 aide every year (over the House budget figure).
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I believe that a lot of teachers are with Deval this time around.
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BUT. I don’t like to think about predictions. GOTV is all-important! Deval supporters know that the highest percentage win we can pull out will help our candidate to go into the general election with the strongest possible foundation.
sabutai says
I’m not aware of too many teachers that were for Birmingham — frankly, O’Brien and Reich were probably better liked. Teacher union endorsements get many people to wring their hands, but they hav very little impact on members’ decision making, perhaps less than any other union.
lynne says
A bigger margin for winning will give Deval the best tool in his arsenal against Healey – a mandate against the legislature when it’s needed. Every time Healey says “but but but we need a Republican to balance out the legislature!” Deval will be able to say, “I’m just as good or better on that score – look at my mandate.”
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You know, as opposed to the Bush mandate of, what, 3-5%?