For me the simplest answer to what happen is: two women split the vote and the guy won. The woman who spent the most money got more votes than the woman is spent the least money. Nor did it hurt that the mans last name was Irish.
But for the estimated 300,000 undecided LG voters that made their decision in the last daysor seconds, there were probably 1,000 variations of why they voted a certain way. With many of those variations giving Murray the edge. Some people will suggest one or two factors made the difference (as I just did in the above paragraph). But if that were true, it would have been self-evident to everyone (like a blown debate, a scandal or huge gaffe). But not one obvious factor moved all those undecided voters in one direction (but Im open to hearing theories). If the election were close, one factor would have made the difference. But the election was not close.
Some voter decisions had logic to themthe outsider/insider balance or voting for a local aid candidate. But the whimsical logic used by others will always make politics an unpredictable art rather than a science. Did anyone catch the logic of one voter, quoted in one Globe edition on Wednesday (which I cant find online)? She voted for Gabriele for Governor and then decided to vote for Goldberg because Debs name also began with a G. (With all the navel gazing weve been doing about the best pairing of candidatesI dont recall the G factor being analyzed. Deb and Chris missed a great opportunity to pair upI can see the bumper sticker now: A G Spot for all the People or, The G Spot That Gets Results. But obviously, I digress.) Such behavior makes you think about other stupid decisions people made, like thinking Andrea Silbert was related to John Silber and they voted for or against her based on that reason.
Among the other dynamics that impacted a big Murray victory:
An anti-Goldberg sentiment that probably translated into the belief that Murray had a better shot at beating Goldberg (I got that feedback from a friend of a friend after the electionit proved the notion many shared, that the more you knew of Deb the less you liked her.).
The shenanigans in some parts that the Patrick / Murray ticket was the best ticket and was truly the desire of the Patrick campaign probably impacted some voters.
But these factors underplay the hard work all the campaigns did in executing their strategies. Particularly the Murray camp. They did indeed drive turnout in the City of Worcester, by an impressive increase in turnout of 46% from 02, giving Murray a 6 to 1 margin over Goldberg and Silbert combined. While I did not tally the turnout for all of Worcester County, it is obvious they drove the turnout higher than Hoss and I thought possiblea 62% increase in Shrewsbury (compared to 19% statewide); 40% increase in Fitchburg; a 45% increase in Leominsterall with big Murray numbers. No doubt all the larger communities in Worcester County had similar numbers.
But this field effort just put extra points on the board for Murray. He would have needed them in a close race, but not on Tuesday. Another factor I think was that Murrays message ultimately prevailed over Silberts. Many elections are decided by the way a candidates massage resonates with the times. Four years ago Jim Segal ran for Treasurer on a platform of helping local cities and towns and got trounced. Four years later Tim Murray did the same thingbut a lot of things changed in those years and this time fighting for more local aid had an impact. How else can you explain Murray winning such suburban communities like Arlington, Belmont, Billerica, Dedham, Hanover, Hingham, Lexington, Marshfield, Milton, Norwood, Pembroke, Plymouth, Reading, Scituate, Stoneham, or Watertown? No old boy network of mayors or Worcester County based field effort drove voters in these communities to Murrayhis message did.
In hindsight there were two problems with Silberts jobs message. First, as some here pointed out (Andy and Charley being two) it required a two step process for the voters to make the connection between jobs and funding of local aid. Both the media budget and voters attention span were not big enough for the message to sink in. (If we were in the middle of a recession and losing jobs todayinstead of being down 150,000 jobs we havent made up since 2001the message of jobs would have resonated stronger.) The other problem with Silberts jobs message is that Deb Goldberg stole it and diluted it. (She initially stole Murrays local cities and towns message, but she ran that for only a week, no doubt because she was caught lying in it.)
And despite all of Goldbergs faults, not having a clear message; her truthiness and her persona, Deb did prove that money can move votes. Her money clearly trumped Murrays strategy of using his Mayoral network to deliver votesbut he did not have to rely on that card. There is no way for me to be politically correct on this, so Ill just say it: The only way to explain how someone named Goldberg from the town of Brookline wins the cities of Attleboro, Boston, Everett, Gloucester, Haverhill, Lawrence, Lowell, Malden, Methuen, New Bedford, Saugus, Somerville and Winthrop (and came close in places like Lynn and Peabody) is with strong name recognition generated by advertising.
Silbert did not connect with her base of liberals like she did at the convention. Among Deval activists, Silbert had an impressive following. Yet her thirty second commercial could only convey the one-dimensional jobs issue and could not communicate the complete context of her accomplishment of creating jobs for low income women to help break the cycle of poverty. If only the average Deval voter could have seen her 5 minute video that played at the conventionshe would have won Cambridge biginstead of by 76 votes, or Concord by 4 votes, and she would have won Boston, Newton or Somerville instead of finishing third.
In many ways, Andrea Silbert accomplished far more than her established opponents. Coming from political obscurity, surprising the pundits at the convention with her solid second, building a well financed campaign and earning the respect of the pundits on Beacon Hill and in the media. She accomplished all this by her shear force of will, hard work and her ideas.
In hindsight everything is so clear (or at least I can make out the images). But in the moment it all made perfect sense. And until that last few days, it was all working. No one can predict the collective conscious of the electorateparticularly the undecided voter. If someone could, we would not be living in a democracy…
We’re obviously fans of Andrea’s and hope her light continues to shine. I can’t imagine it won’t given that she was universally liked by insiders and outsiders, given her clear expertise on issues facing our state and given that she’s proven herself to be one of the most effective individual fundraisers to come along in a long time. $450,000 for Kerry plus $1,000,000 for herself = $1.45 million over the last three years, raised basically by herself, her small staff and a core of dedicated believers. Deval needs her as much as he needs anyone right now.
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As for what drove the results, you’re right: TM changed the way downballot races are run in Mass., and I think in 4 years if there are some other downballot races, you’ll see more elected officials jumping in, trying to leverage their political organizations towards victory.
You mentioned the towns outside of Worcester County where Murray did well.
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With the exception of Watertown, which has a city form of government, you are looking at places with town meetings. When people sit in Town Meetings, and actually discuss the town budget, read Finance Committee reports, and make decisions based on the local aid allocations.
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I can only speak for Arlington. When I saw our most conservative precincts vote for Deval in huge numbers (precinct 13 is the only precinct that voted for Cellucci in 1998 – Deval won it P:247 G:176 R:111) I knew the governor’s race was over. Silbert had big numbers out of our most liberal precinct (precinct 8 P:483 G:112 R:80; G:139 M:172 S:299) but she spent part of the day standing in front of the polling place. Silbert came in third in every precinct (1-7) east of Pleasant Street, and only won the 3 most liberal precincts south of Mass. Ave.
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Goldberg did best in precincts where there is traditionally a low vote total in municipal elections – lots of casual voters.
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Final totals in Arlington:
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Gabrieli: 2443
Patrick: 6014
Reilly: 2195
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Goldberg: 3079
Murray: 3460
Silbert: 3069
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Which means half of Deval’s vote in a liberal town didn’t go to Silbert.
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Local aid resonates as an issue in towns, due to the town meeting form of government.
The local aid issue resonated stronger than the jobs message. The reason why I cited those suburban Boston wins by Murray is that they probably only knew Murray from his message and not his Worcester based field team or the organization of a friendly mayor. (And it’s apparent the network of local mayor’s did not help Murray much, because Goldberg won her share of cities in eastern MA.)
I was backing up what you said with data.
A million months ago sometime in the heat of summer i posted a handicap on the LG Race…
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Handicapping Lt.Gov. race simpler than you are making it. (0.00 / 0) It’s all interesting…money raised/money spent, frugality, field operations, tv ads, messages, experience…all good stuff to banter about…but we are talking Lieutenant Governor here…no one except their parents and staff cares who gets elected Lt. Gov….people are going to trot to the polls to vote for Governor…the downcard is an after thought and is driven by much simpler considerations…”who is most like me?” (gender, religion, veteran), “who lives nearest to me?” (geography), “who’s last name is most like me?” (ethnicity)…and yes, even less substantive:”Who’s first name is the same as my grandson’s/daughter’s?”
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Almost like picking a bet on the 5th race at Wonderland…not scientific…
So in this race, the handicapping may be more accurate by assessing how people actually vote for Lt. Gov (and downcard races)…
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Gender: Woman, woman, man
Geography: Brookline, Brookline/Harwich, Worcester
Ethnicity: Jewish-American, Jewish-American, Irish-American
Religion: Jewish, Jewish, Catholic
First name: Deb, Andrea, Tim
Military: none, none, none
Title on Ballot: former Selectwoman, none, Mayor
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okay…that given…someone may just have won this race when both women got their 15% at the convention and Sam Kelly was history…
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$2 to win on Murray…
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So I hope that $2 paid some decent odds.
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As for you two, FrankS and Hoss…Andrea Silbert was lucky to have such enthusiastic and (dare I say) maniacally driven
supporters…damn lucky.
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There have been times that I wanted to strangle both of you for hurling a few Tim attacks a bit too far…but all in all, the truth willed out and I had a good time jousting with you.
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If you have an ounce of energy left, I hope you will pick up the Patrick/murray sign and march to victory…you deserve a victory night…we all do…so come on along, they need two guys like you!
Almost forgot Dorie Clarke!…what a great job she did on Andrea’s free media…she gave it a 24/7 effort for Andrea and it showed…not just in the Herald and Globe but with those regional dailies, as well. Good for her. Doug Rubin should put her to work for the DP/TM Team.
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On the Murray team hired guns had minor effect in this race, because the margin of victory came down to the folks that were running on heart, soul and adrenaline…Joe O’Brien and his band of “Worcester boys” combined with an incredible team of young people who were on their first campaign (and outshining the pros) really carried the day for Tim Murray. Victory in the Lt. Gov. race truly belongs to them…they were Tim’s secret weapon not just on election day but from day one to Sept. 19.
I think you captured the intangibles…the Murray Heart and Soul. There is something special in Worcester percolating out of the Jim McGovern nexus (1st in for Deval)and the rest of the state will benefit from catching the wave. Heart, Soul, Brains, Work Ethic and yes folks, a touch of real middle “class”.
Two years ago when Sen. Augustus was running against Blute I was told by campaign workers that a creed was to not disrespect the opponent (don’t trash the lawn signs) even when it’s done to them. Imagine that?
If I could give one piece of advice to Tim and Joe, it would be to stick with the home team until the 7th….My fear is that the “pros” would come in and screw it up…Patrick-Murray is the Dream Team. Good Job…let’s go to work.
After Stephen Lynch won his special election to congress in 2001, someone told me that we had run a brilliant campaign. As I had been on more failing races than successful ones, and I had thought we had been as smart in the execution of the strategies in those races as we had in Lynch’s, I said that if we had done exactly the same and had lost, we’d be branded idiots.
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Your post illustrates that this business is an art not a science. In this race, the three campaigns were addressing half the electorate with message, and taking our chances with the other half, who would either blank, or resort to einy, meeny, miny, mo.
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If there was a link between Patrick and Murray, it was on the concentration on turn out, which was the x factor of this race. Galvin predicted 620k or so. Gabrieli thought 800k on election day, and 900k turn out. For the LG race, the margins in central Mass that you note made it impossible for Goldberg to catch Tim. 1000 vote margin in Newton doesn’t match 18,000 vote margin in Worcester. Those raw numbers prove more powerful than the percentage, and as the Patrick campaign would say, 100 votes in Palmer count the same as 100 votes in Boston.
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And I’d be remiss if I didn’t note that Joe O’Brien, Tim’s campaign manager, and his team executed one of the finest field operations that I have ever seen. Kerry Healey should be afraid. Very afraid.
I, have been one to always “attempt” to get the last word,that’s probably why I was the one who got grounded the most in my house hold. As my late dad used to always say, “you never know when to close your trap”. Well, I guess dad I did not learn as well as you would have liked.
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p> But lets not attempt to undermine any of the hard work that all the candidates and their troops displayed. We all have in my opinion made some valid statements regarding our candidates, but in the end someone had to win.
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p> I have always stated, and Hoss and Frank know this, that I thought that in a “down ticket” race a strong grass roots campaign will account for something, and if a the race is close, in which this LG polls showed it was this grass root effort would put one over the line. Yes, we can all try to analyze this race and the Governors race.I will stick with old fashion campaigning, yes, money is a evil necessity, yet, in most cases one can stay in the game. And who knows even win, if all other applicable taks are fulfilled.
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In Mayor Murray’s camp we focused on message, money and organization. We believe we had all three elements clicking on all cylinders going into the primary day. Yes, there numerous other mitigating factors that can be listed, but in the end, what counts is working as hard as you can and in this race all three did just that.
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Let’s just work to get the Patrick/Murray ticket in the corner office ! And let’s all stick to our day jobs !!!
Murray’s campaign was quite visible in where I was out getting a sunburn beneath my Patrick sign. In that precinct, many voters seemed intent on voting for Patrick and couldn’t decide who to vote for for LG. The guy near me holding his Murray sign was able to convince a number of them that his candidate would be best for Patrick. Those cities we lost in the last gubernatorial race made for quite a talking point. Democrats really want to win; we want to win bad.
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I would further speculate about the anti-Goldberg vote. A voter, who wanted to vote against Goldberg but who couldn’t really tell whether to vote for Silbert or Murray, would find the Murray campaign’s physical presence persuasive. Murray would appear to be the best bet for keeping Goldberg off the ticket.
and you were one of those “Worcester boys” clicking on all three cylinders! While others were talking the talk, you were walking the walk. Congrats to you, too.
It’s always been about working as a Team and getting the Murray message out. We all accomplished that by working long,long,and yes, long days/nights. We will win in November, only, if we all do the same over the next six weeks. I know the Murray team is fired up and is in high gear, and as the next Lt Gov stated in his vicotry speech ” are we ready to rock and roll” !
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p> Team Murray has such a diverse group spreadout that we all know that in the end ,we all need to be on the same page and be speaking from that page. NO need to panic, just fight each and every day, sometimes, believe it or not, someone alot higher then us, rewards those who He knows is speaking the truth !
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Patrick/Murray 06 !
It’s time for a change !
“Hrm, mayor of Worcester … Worcester’s doing all right … I’ll go Tim.” I would imagine that’s about as much thought as most folks put into it — about as much as I would have before I started doing this blog.
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That’s not a put-down of Tim, or the electorate. But I think that’s what it came down to.
As the vote showed, Deval Patrick does best with the very liberal areas, the heavy minority areas, and the very wealthy areas. He was weakest in white working class towns. (He still won most of these, but by smaller margins.)
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I think a lot of Democrats want to WIN in November. As it became increasingly obvious that Deval Patrick would be the nominee, people asked themselves “which candidate will help Deval Patrick the most. Some liberal millionaire woman from Brookline talking about business, or an irish guy who has been repeatedly reelected in a working class city?”
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The answer to the above question is obvious, and people voted accordingly.
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Had another gubernatorial opponent been winning, it’s possible that the LG race would’ve gone differently.
Interesting to read the post mortem here. I just discovered this site a few days before the election. Very intelligent commentary. Not sure what I can contribute, but I’ll keep reading.
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I think splitting the girl vote is probably a factor–hadn’t thought of that. And the Irish last name, of course, as well as an attempt to “balance” the ticket with the expected winner (Patrick) all make sense to me. I think there may be another factor I didn’t see mentioned, and that is the western/central representation. If Reilly from Springfield was unlikely to win, vote for Murray from Worcester to get a little representation in Nov. (esp. considering the Republicans have a Central Mass. Lt. Gov. candidate who might syphon some votes for that reason). Not something people would likely think through too much, but one of those gut reactions.
I think there were three major factors in the LG’s race. First, Tim Murray is a personable guy who went endlessly back and forth across this state. We saw him in Berkshire County at every event I went to. So people got to talk to him and hear him rather than just look at the ads on TV. It’s not that the others weren’t personable, but he was also very personal.
Second, he did an incredible job at mobilizing his base. The rule of thumb is that you play to your strength in a primary and go shore up your weaknesses in a general election. Murray brought out his strength in Worcester and everyone had to play catch up after that.
I think that the third factor is that Patrick showed that this was all about bringing voters out on primary day, and Murray had most, if not all of the mayors in Massachusetts helping him. No one gets a vote out like mayors and that helped him turn out the vote.
this profile of Murray that came out the week before the election in Worcester Magazine: “Hurry Murray.”
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The cover of that issue is a hoot, too.
Mayor Murray is continuing to build the Patrick/Murray ticket. While I could not agree more with previous posts, Tim and the Western part of the state was very critical in his victory. I know Tim will never stop working this area, as well as the areas he did not do as well.
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I have stated how much he is a rentless campaigner and a very personalbe person who actuallys enjoys listening to people. He is covering at least 4 areas today in the western part of the commonwealth, ending the day in North Adams. I know for sure that all the Patrick/Murray troops will never rest, there is way to much to lose. And as a lession learned from last Tuesday,polls in many cases are not ,nor should they be a reason to slow down.
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p> Educating a voter is a hard task, but in my years playing this game ,I have seen how hard work can move a candidate over the finish line.
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Go Patrick/Murray: It’s time for a change !
Mayor Murray is continuing to build the Patrick/Murray ticket. While I could not agree more with previous posts, Tim and the Western part of the state was very critical in his victory. I know Tim will never stop working this area, as well as the areas he did not do as well.
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I have stated how much he is a rentless campaigner and a very personalbe person who actuallys enjoys listening to people. He is covering at least 4 areas today in the western part of the commonwealth, ending the day in North Adams. I know for sure that all the Patrick/Murray troops will never rest, there is way to much to lose. And as a lession learned from last Tuesday,polls in many cases are not ,nor should they be a reason to slow down.
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p> Educating a voter is a hard task, but in my years playing this game ,I have seen how hard work can move a candidate over the finish line.
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p> Money is important, but perception can turn into reality and it’s my belief the general public will appreciate the hard work a campagin puts fourth.
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Go Patrick/Murray: It’s time for a change !
It’s actually hard for a lot of self-described progressives to see completely and clearly past someone’s race and gender and ethnicity and sexuality and history as a candidate and as an elected official to assess their positions and their track record. I point, once again, to the amazing Jim McGovern, one of the most progressive members of Congress ever, as proof that serious progressives need to look past the package and to recognize that certain values in a white bread wrapper are much more likely to pass muster with the electorate.
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Tim Murray’s bio, as a white, Irish Catholic, heterosexual, five term Worcester City Councilor and three time Worcester Mayor lacked the presumptive credibility given to some other candidates. Unable to see past the facade, he simply could not overcome many bloggers assumptions about what a progressive is supposed to look like. (Deval, who I love, benefited quite a bit from the flip side of this phenomenon.)
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Fortunately for progressives there were still enough voters who got it. I’ve known Tim for more than a decade and he is the real deal on almost all of the issues that are important to me and to many other progressives. Let me explain.
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Exactly what constitutes a “progressive” agenda or ideology could be the subject for quite a conversation here or over some late night beers. For some, certain social issues (e.g., abortion, same sex marriage, death penalty, rights of immigrants) are the be all and end all. For others, environmental issues (brown fields, Cape Wind, manufacturer take back, precautionary principle) and issues of corporate responsibility predominate. Still others look to questions of militarism and foreign policy, even in a candidate for state or local office. Still others look to worker rights and the concerns of organized labor. Very few candidates can “ace” that whole agenda. Tim Murray comes damned close!
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To me, the most impressive accomplishment in the statewide races this year was Tim’s securing the state AFL-CIO endorsement. That required a 2/3 vote in a three way race. And to be honest, Tim was not running against two people with a bad labor record at all. But Tim’s labor credentials are sterling. His immigrant grandfather was an organizer for the steelworkers and later president of the Central Massachusetts AFL-CIO. His dad was president of his teachers union. His mom still works the overnight shift as a nurse. Tim stood strongly with the nurses during the Saint Vincent Hospital/Tenet strike from the beginning, when everyone knew they couldn’t possibly win (but thanks to Jim McGovern and Ted Kennedy they won anyway!). He spoke out in support of the UAW organizing effort at Saint Gobain. He managed to keep the support of most municipal unions in Worcester even while his job as Mayor left him on the other side of the negotiating table. Tim’s endorsement by the central voice of organized labor statewide speaks volumes about a certain aspect of responsiveness to a particular progressive agenda. Any progressive coalition that has a chance to win must include organized labor. In that venue, Tim completely dominated his primary opponents.
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That Tim, with his personal background in tact, can also be an unapologetic strong and active environmentalist, an opponent of the death penalty, a strong supporter of abortion rights and same sex marriage, etc. is simply wonderful and, for some progressives, surprising news.
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I have worked my heart out for Deval Patrick and felt guilty about not doing more than I did for Tim. But honestly, ultimately, I believe that Tim is to Deval’s left in any fair assessment of the two candidates’ full history, platform, and approach. He will be a strong and consistent voice for the interests of workers and communities when some, including Deval, are pushing for tax breaks for corporations in the name of job growth. Obviously, we need both voices, because there must be a tension and a give and take between the desire/need to be business friendly and the obligation to secure protections in return for concessions.
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Ultimately, Tim won because Joe O’Brien and the rest of the Team Murray crew developed a terrific strategy based primarily on consistent grassroots organizing. They stuck by their plan and executed it brilliantly. For progressives, many of whom quite frankly weren’t paying enough attention to this race, Tim’s victory is an extraordinary and lucky plus to a ticket that can and will win in November if we all roll up our sleeves and keep our eyes on the prize. What a bonus! A Lieutenant Governor to help nudge the Patrick administration to the left! And a Jim McGovern protégé to boot. Lucky us!