One line of thought is this is the best they had on Deval and they intended to release it closer to the election. But after the Primary, even their internal polls showed a huge Deval lead and if he kept the lead until two week before the primary, damaging stuff that late in the game would not be enough to catch Deval. So, dump the info early, hope the numbers fall earlier and slug it out in the last couple of weeks. (Of course the LaGuer donation/Deval omission was a gift that they did not expect.)
Right now, that is where most of our thinking is and the conventional wisdom is that Deval can survive slugging it out over the next few weeks.
Of course, there is the other, darker, theory that the Healey folks have something else up their sleeve that they will be dropping in the next couple of weeks. If it has the same impact as the LaGuer/Coddling Convicts meme then we have real problems. If some thing else happens, dont expect it to be in the same variety of Deval being soft on crime. They wore that record out (a cultural reference for the over 30 folks) and they accomplished what they neededthey got back the traditional Republican base of MEN. If they are planning on dropping something else, I hope it is not something that will offend womenthey are our fire line and we cant afford to lose them.
(Now, Im not insinuating that there is any there there with regards to anything Deval has done in the past. ALL of the issues/mud thrown by the Healey folks relate to perfectly legitimate things Deval has done. But noble deeds can be manipulated in the small window of a campaign, using deceit and emotion, that will distort perceptions of the swing voters.)
So, expect the unexpected and hope the rapid response team is a little sharper if they are needed again.
makes more sense to me.
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I would also bet the next salvo will be Ameriquest related.
Three reasons why this race is no longer a cakewalk:
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1. Healey has set the agenda since the primary.
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2. Patrick campaign bungled getting the full LaGuer story out quickly and cleanly.
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3. Healey’s money advantage has fueled her negative media barrage.
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And the three answers:
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1. Patrick needs to use his schedule/earned media the way he’s using his new ad: to highlight other issues where his position is popular and her record/position isn’t. Coming down the stretch, there will be increased coverage of the campaign. Patrick needs to drive it toward the things he wants to talk about: Big Dig, Cape Wind, cops on the street, local aid cuts and property tax increases, and so on. Things where he’s strong and she’s weak. This is what schedule/message planning is for. Duh.
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2. Rapid Response needs to get it right when future slime descends. My God, we’ve been reading about LaGuer on BMG for months — why wasn’t there a complete timeline, rehearsed talking points, and a phalanx of eminent constitutional lawyers and credible, supportive prosecutors ready to go instantly? Does the campaign have corresponding material and plans in place to counter her likely next moves?
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3. Clinton coming to town — twice! — will no doubt help. But all of us need to dig deeper into our pockets and let friends know that more cash right away can help keep this race from becoming too close for comfort.
Sunday’s rally will be a great answer 1 to reasons 1 and 3. Healey can buy ads, or stage photo-ops like the Sphygmomanometer thing. But is she capable of getting media exposure that would increase her favorability? This Sunday the state will get to see a huge burst of enthusiasm FOR a candidate, and it will have an impact.
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