… now it’s a mere 21% difference:
In the survey of 664 likely voters taken earlier this week, Patrick collected 55-percent, Healey was a distant second with 34%. Independent candidate Christy Mihos slipped to 6%, Green/Rainbow Party candidate Grace Ross had 3%, with 3% undecided.
In a CBS4/Boston Globe poll released last week, Healey trailed Patrick by 25-points.
I’m disappointed. I want my 39-point margin back. Gimme!
Please share widely!
First of all, I find Survey USA to be not a good bellwether, remember-these guys had Reilly, Patrick and Gabrieli in a virtual tie for first, and Patrick beat them by 20/27% respectively. I know its the General, and things are dynamically different, but i saw a Zogby poll yesterday with Patrick at 58% and Healey at 32%, so go figure?
<
p>
Any comments?
And if I had a choice, I’d trust SurveyUSA rather than Zogby, who’s had a less than stellar track record. But, neither is top-notch.
SUSA was pretty good right before primary day, as I recall – considerably better than Suffolk.
although Zogby tends to have the most noise — that is, it tends to bounce the farthest between polls, and tends to be an outlier relative to other polls. That doesn’t make ’em wrong, just different.
<
p>
SurveyUSA is OK, but I suspect that there’s still a bit too much noise in their polls too.
<
p>
As for me, I’m intrigued about Grace Ross. Will she get 3% of the vote? Does it matter?
That totals 101%.
<
p>
Looks like the undecideds are getting smaller and Christy is losing some Republicans. Deval’s numbers look pretty consistent in the mid 50s though. I still say Deval’s numbers will be a lot stronger in the election. Similar to the Primary.
I think Deval’s voters are particularly motivated to get him into the Governor’s office. I know I already voted in the hopes I can get down to Connecticut to volunteer this weekend and Election Day.
I heard somewhere that the race was “neck and neck.”
<
p>
BWAAAAHAHAHAHAHA!!!
They have 2000 Healey voters identified who didn’t vote for Romney, so obviously she’ll win by even more than he did.
<
p> – Dan
<
p>
Don’t worry! If we work hard, we’ll have it “back” on Tuesday!
<
p>
Maybe not literally, but my rough prediction a few days ago from a linear fit to polling data was around:
Patrick 65
Healey 25
Mihos 8
Ross 2
When you say “linear fit”, do you mean that the numbers you present are an extrapolation based on an aggregation of all the polling data collected up to this point? If so, does the smooshing up of all the different collection models really yield a good result? Seriously, I don’t know much about this stuff and would love to know more. Thanks