Carol Shea-Porter has a top-notch ground operation, but has been unable (due partiially to money and partially to demographics) to get within the striking distance required for that organization to matter.
That may have just changed:
The Democrats see victory well within reach in the 2nd District. Smith says that after seeing his numbers, they may re-think their hands-off strategy in the 1st District “if they have any money left.”
Meanwhile, the DCCC has broadcast ads for Hodes and against Bass hitting NH from every side. From the Union Leader:
The Status has learned that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee on Tuesday upped its television ad buy on behalf of 2nd District candidate Hodes from the previously reported $315,000 to – ready? – $1.1 million.
With the additional $800,000, the DCCC is buying more ad time on WMUR and is adding Boston television. The DCCC is also spending $80,000 on Vermont television that reaches northern and western parts of the state for a grand total of $1.189 million.
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Look further down in that article though and you will see the world’s sweetest lines:
Recent internal GOP polling has Bass trailing Hodes by 2 to 5 percent. That, folks, is a dead heat.
For those of you wondering why Bass has been losing it these last weeks, let me just say, mystery solved.
Cross-posted at NH-02 Progressive
I’ll be working in Keene for all or most of election day. Maybe we’ll run into each other in person.
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You meant that NH-01 (Shea-Porter) appeared bleak but now is less so, right? NH-02 (Hodes) hasn’t been bleak for a long time, as you say elsewhere.
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Any BMG readers who live on the border with NH-01 (e.g., in the lower Merrimac Valley) ought to get up there and work. As you say, it’s at least at the edge of conceivability that we pull out an upset win, and in any case the closer we make this race the better our prospects for that district in 2008 and the more NH politicians are aware of the organizing potential of the Democratic netroots. After all, Hodes lost by about 20 in 2004 but laid the groundwork for this campaign.
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For readers on the border with NH-02, contact the campaign to volunteer!
The other great thing about this is that if Hodes or Shea-Porter (or both!) can pull this off, these seats will likely be Democratic for a while. New Hampshire, while still pretty strongly Republican as far as state legislative races go, has defintely been trending more Democratic. Pickups in NH will definetely help provide a buffer zone for ’08 if Dems end up losing uber-red seats like TX-22 (Tom Delay) next time around.
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If Shea-Porter had the $$$, I think she’d soilidly be in the same situation as Hodes now, which is really surprising to me. However, she’s proven to be a legit candidate and clearly has a solid ground game as witnessed in her shocking upset in the primary.
By running more successful races — REGARDLESS OF OUTCOME — the Dems are helping their chances both bigger and smaller.
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Smaller: right now, the NH General Court (their lege) is 245-152 in the House, and 16-8 in the Senate. By running strong US House campaigns, theres a better chance that the Dems pick up a few seats in these smaller races. End result: the Dems gain a little strength in the legislature, which in NH could help swing the lege from veto-override power to much closer to 50:50.
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Bigger: US Senate races and electoral votes in 2008 (and 2010 Senate). Stronger Dem GOTV efforts will help the ground game later, and might help the Dems pluck a senator from NH. The last Democratic Senator from NH: John Durkin, 75-80.
NH-02: Hodes 45, Bass 37
NH-01: Bradley 47, Shea-Porter 42
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PDF press release here.
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“Historically, an incumbent with less than 50% of the vote in polls just before an election is likely to lose.”
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Let’s get up there and close the deal.