Blue Mass Group

Reality-based commentary on politics.

Turnout appears to be high

By

Boston.com confirms what you guys are reporting: a lot of people are showing up to vote today.  Interestingly, they’re doing so even though every poll released in the last two weeks — including a Suffolk poll yesterday (Patrick 53, Healey 31, Mihos 6, Ross 2, Undecided 9, MOE +/- 5%) — has shown Deval Patrick with a lead of at least 20 points, which the conventional wisdom might suggest would kill turnout.

Not today.  Lots of people want to change politics in this state.  Good.

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  1. from that Boston.com article:

    The 2006 election is somewhat similar to 2002, when 2.2 million of the state’s 4 million voters turned out to elect newcomer Mitt Romney, the Republican, over Democrat Shannon O’Brien, but analysts say there are at least two factors likely to boost turnout this time. Patrick’s sophisticated get-out-the-vote effort fueled the biggest primary election turnout since 1990, they said, and a record $43 million was spent on the campaign, which saturated the airwaves with advertising.

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    It sounds as if it was all Patrick’s spending.  phooey.

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    I’m just in from two hours of sign-holding, where the lone Healey sign holder shrunk away and went home leaving her two signs against the fence.  By contrast, there was a sea of Patrick/Murray signs with enthusiastic faces and free-flowing coffee greeting people as they came around the bend.  I sorta felt bad for her.  Sign holding is great–especially for these guys–give it a try.  Just show up at your precinct and offer for whatever time you can manage.  I’m sure you won’t be turned away. 

    • The ironic (?) thing is that almost HALF of the $43 million spent belongs to the Gabrieli and Healey campaigns.

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      Guess it just goes to show that money can’t always buy you love….

      • Love gets you money.  Look at how much money was donated to the campaigns by others.  Especially the percentages.

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        The Globe has a useful graph.

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        p>  – Dan

      • MORE than half (54%) of the $43 million belongs to Healey and Gabrieli.

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        And great point, Dan, about the % of personal contributions by the candidates themselves. I know that during the primary a lot of people thought Deval should have kicked in more of his own cash, but I think it speaks volumes about his campaign that he didn’t NEED to in order to stay competitive with the others.

    • I have a suspicion that a lot of the turnout are Healey voters hoping to vote against Deval Patrick… but hopfully not enough to turn the tide.

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      My prediction: Patrick by 13 points.  Lower than expected, but still enough to make me happy.

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