Finally, we have a poll. 457 likely voters. Survey dates: 10/8-10 (the UMass-Lowell debate was on 10/9). MoE: +/- 4.7%. Confidence: 95%.
Candidate Now (Sept 11)
Tsongas 51 (51)
Ogonowski 42 (41)
Murphy 4 (1)
Hayes 2 (2)
Thompson 0 (2)
Undecided 1 (4)
The most interesting results, IMHO:
- A freakishly large gender gap: among men, Ogo has gone from +13 in September to +18 now, whereas among women, Tsongas has gone from +32 to +37. Overall, a 55-point spread. Good grief.
- Ogo has tanked among seniors. In September, he held a small lead of +2. Now, he’s way down — Tsongas is at +14. Seniors were a quarter of the sample both times, so these numbers seem reasonably solid.
- Tsongas has widened her lead substantially among voters age 35-49, from +2 to +13. This group is a third of the sample.
- Conversely, the positions have flipped among voters age 18-34, who used to favor Tsongas but now favor Ogo. However, the sample size here is much smaller — only 10% — so the MoE is about 15%.
- As has been remarked elsewhere, normally independents and moderates vote similarly. Not so here: “independents” (40% of the sample) continue to favor Ogo, but “moderates” (also 40%, but presumably a different 40%) have gone from +2 for Tsongas to a remarkable +17 for Tsongas.
- There’s also a substantial gap among the “things are lousy” crowd: among the 70% who disapprove of the job Congress is doing, Ogo is at +5, but among the 70% who think the country is on the wrong track, Tsongas is way ahead at +31. I’ll leave that one to the political scientists to sort out.
Overall, the Tsongas campaign has to be quite happy with this poll. She is still over the crucial 50% line, and seniors (who are most likely to vote) have shifted dramatically toward her. And the overall horserace margin has not moved in a statistically significant way over the last month.