The Monitor’s Sarah Liebowitz writes:
Of the likely Democratic primary voters surveyed for the Monitor poll, 37 percent aren’t registered with a political party. When it came to those undeclared voters, Obama trounced his opponents: 40 percent of undeclared voters likely to vote in the Democratic primary backed Obama, compared with 23 percent for Clinton and 13 percent for former North Carolina senator John Edwards.
Clinton, in contrast, won the support of more registered Democrats: 36 percent said they’d vote for Clinton, compared with 27 percent for Obama and 21 percent for Edwards….
Apart from undeclared voters, Obama now draws considerable support from women. Of the female, likely Democratic voters surveyed, 34 percent say they’d choose Obama, compared with 32 percent for Clinton. Female voters have widely been considered a key demographic for Clinton, the former first lady and U.S. senator from New York.
“That’s where the biggest gains have been made for Obama,” [Research 2000 polling firm president Del] Ali said. “That gender gap – right now, he’s removed it.”
Essentially, the race is a tie and it remains fluid, although the momentum has shifted towards Team Obama.
Obama, Clinton and Edwards were the only Democratic candidates to win double-digit support in the poll – 32 percent of likely Democratic primary voters surveyed backed Obama, 31 percent chose Clinton, and 18 percent went with Edwards. Richardson followed with 8 percent support. Dennis Kucinich, Joe Biden and Chris Dodd all placed in the low single digits.
The results of the Monitor poll were similar to those of a University of New Hampshire poll released earlier this week. That survey showed Clinton leading Obama by just one percentage point, well within the margin of error.
In the Monitor’s July poll, 33 percent of likely Democratic voters surveyed chose Clinton, while 25 percent picked Obama. Edwards won 15 percent of the vote in that poll, while Richardson took 7 percent.
Research 2000 — a Maryland-based, nonpartisan firm — interviewed 600 likely primary voters by phone on December 11-13, 2007. The poll’s margin of error is 4 percentage points; that margin is higher within subgroups.