ARE we heading into a Recession – or already entering one as Tom Finneran says? January 10, 2008 By AmberPaw According to Tom Finneran on WRKO we are in a recession, and it will deepen. Do you agree? If so, why? Do you disagree? If so, why do you disagree? Links and solid information if possible. Please share widely! 00
A recession has begun if you believe the unemployment change as a leading indicator or consider that the stock market has already discounted a recession into its pricing, sometime this past year.
people who have small businesses aren’t being paid. Inquiries, foot traffic (people getting ready to do something) is way down.
In construction, the telephones don’t ring. People aren’t making those tentative inquiries and people who planned work have postponed it. Lumber yards are anxious to give quotes for any construction. Deliveries come very promptly.
p>This is not just the quiet that happens in January – it has been going on since late October, at least. There are no links or solid information I can add – just conversations with the owners of companies that I know well.
…it’s from a big investment house, I believe Goldman Sacks. Largely because of the write-downs from the high risk (“sub prime”) housing loan market. Just a couple of days ago, Crdeit Suisse had to write off some US$2.2B.
we won’t know until months from now.
p>Recession is 2+ consecutive quarters of real GDP decline. The US ended 2007 with GDP growth.