Blue Mass Group

Reality-based commentary on politics.

South Carolina Saturday…Obama’s day

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It’s Saturday. It must be South Carolina…and Obama’s turn to taste victory.

Looking forward to February 5th and beyond, Obama should expect to have some additional successes. He is more media-popular and less polarizing than Jesse Jackson was in 1984 and 1986, so it is predictable that Obama should definitely eclipse Jackson’s wins….(he already did in Iowa.)

Rev. Jackson won 5 primaries and caucuses in 1984, and 13 such contests in 1988.

A google search of election result sites indicates he won contests in 1984 in Louisiana, Washington, D.C., South Carolina, Virginia, and one of the split contests in Mississippi.

Four years later, he won primaries in Virginia, Louisiana, Georgia, Mississippi, and Alabama on Super Tuesday; contests in Delaware, Vermont, Alaska, DC, Puerto Rico, Michigan and South Carolina; as well as a caucus in Texas (even though he lost the primary and Dukakis ultimately took more delegates).

It will be interesting to watch.

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  1. Why not compare Obama to John F. Kennedy, for example? It seems to me he has more in common with the last President from Massachusetts than with Jesse Jackson.

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    p>From Wikipedia on JFK’s primary campaign (just for the interest of the BMG history buffs):

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    In the Democratic primary election, he faced challenges from Senator Hubert Humphrey of Minnesota and Senator Wayne Morse of Oregon. Kennedy defeated Humphrey in Wisconsin and West Virginia and Morse in Maryland and Oregon, although Morse’s candidacy is often forgotten by historians. He also defeated token opposition (often write-in candidates) in New Hampshire, Indiana and Nebraska. In West Virginia, Kennedy visited a coal mine and talked to mine workers to win their support; most people in that conservative, mostly Protestant state were deeply suspicious of Kennedy’s Catholicism. His victory in West Virginia cemented his credentials as a candidate with broad popular appeal.

    With Humphrey and Morse out of the race, Kennedy’s main opponent at the convention in Los Angeles was Senator Lyndon B. Johnson of Texas. Adlai Stevenson, the Democratic nominee in 1952 and 1956, was not officially running but had broad grassroots support inside and outside the convention hall. Senator Stuart Symington of Missouri was also a candidate, as were several favorite sons. On July 13, 1960, the Democratic convention nominated Kennedy as its candidate for President.

    • I’m thinking Obama has more in common with Ted Kennedy in the 1980 primaries.  The differences being that Obama has much less experience (than Ted) and so all he’s running on is Hillary’s unpopularity, “hope”, “change”, and ambiguity, and Hillary’s not a sitting president (though her husband is making up the difference for her there).  But Obama can’t win the nomination on the not-Hillary vote, and it will end up being Hillary v. McCain, and that makes McCain our next Ronald Reagan.  Race doesn’t factor here, but the color green does.  Obama is too green (rookie) for the voters who are looking at the issues, and John Edwards can’t get enough $green$ to get his message out since he’s not being supported by corporate big-money donors.  

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      p>It’s really too bad, because John Edwards is the one candidate in this race that the polls show has a chance of beating any one of the Republican candidates in November.

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      p>From Wikipedia on Ted Kennedy’s Presidential Bid

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      He finally threw his hat into the ring for the Democratic nomination in the 1980 presidential election by launching an unusual, insurgent campaign against the sitting president, Jimmy Carter, a member of his own party. Despite much early support, his bid was ultimately unsuccessful. Carter was highly unpopular at the time of Kennedy’s announcement, and Kennedy could have expected to do well against the incumbent president. But the Iran hostage crisis gave President Carter a large boost in the polls that lasted for several months. The upswing in Carter’s popularity knocked the wind out of Kennedy’s candidacy, which was predicated on dislodging an unpopular president.

    • In JFK’s day conventions mattered. They were where the action was! Not so today.

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      p>Today, that has been replaced with primaries and caucuses in profusion. The nominee is decided in these venues prior to the Convention’s opening gavel. The Convention today is a media event/TV show to basically announce and launch the ticket. The only news is who is selected as running mate…and even that is usually no surprise by the time the convention starts.

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      p>The Democratic Party had previously nominated Al Smith, an Irish-American Catholic who went down to defeat. The question in 1960 was, can a Roman Catholic not only get nominated, but win the final. Adding Texan Johnson helped tilt the scale in one of the closest contests in history.

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      p>The Dem. Party has yet to nominate an African-American so we are still on nominating question and the only gauge we have is to compare how Rev. Jackson did 20 years ago with how Barack Obama is doing this year…I suspect Obama will continue to do better than Jackson…and win more state primaries and caucuses.

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      p>I personally do NOT believe race or gender or religion should define a candidate, but in 2008 in the United States of America it is clear to me that a lot of people in the media and in the populace do.

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      p>Aside: For a great inside view of the West Virginia battle in 1960 campaign, read Helen O’Donnell’s book about her father and the Kennedy brothers, “A Common Good”…it is very enlightening….many of the attacks on the Kennedy’s back then are the same as those we are hearing about the Clintons today.
      Politics is a tough business, not for the thin-skinned or faint of heart.

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      p>  

  2. Barack Obama will win the South Carolina Democratic primary, CNN projects. A win in South Carolina was considered crucial for the Illinois senator, who finished second to New York Sen. Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire and Nevada. full story

  3. If:

    Note the MSNBC headline:
    Economy remained top concern; half of electorate was black

    Then:
    Blacks top concern is the economy. Yes?!?
    They pick Obama, not because of his race, BUT because he is the solution to their economic woes!?!

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    p>Is this why Clinton/Penn/Clinton have been doing the Blue Rovian 3 Step?

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    p>God forbid, Obama gets Mo on being the front runner with “It’s the economy stupid” in his back pocket.

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    p>At Baracks Speech tonight, he should hold up a picture of Carville, saying “Yes, James! SC gets it.”  

  4. Obama is just another black candidate who will win in states with lots of blacks but not much else. And you and all the Clinton folks seem to be happy about that because you know there are just more white folks out there so ultimately that is what matters.  YES THE CLINTONS HAVE SUCCESSFULLY MADE OBAMA THE BLACK CANDIDATE.  SO MUCH FOR THE POLITICS OF INCLUSION.  THEY SHOULD ROT.

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    p>Just comparing Obama to Jackson is bull shit.  

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