Lots of people were panicking on Monday about how much the stock indices fell after the bailout bill failed. For reference, voting started at 1:30pm. At that time, most people were expecting it to pass. The futures prices move faster, so they provide a better estimate of where prices are then the actual index quotes. The futures prices when the voting started were
S&P 500: about 1170
DJIA: about 10925
The prices at the close on Monday were 1131.5 and 10572, for drops of about 40 points and 350 points.
Today people were again expecting the bill to pass, and the voting started at about 1:00pm. At that time, the futures prices were
S&P 500: about 1155
DJIA: about 10775
The prices at the close today were 1105.75 and 10352, for drops of about 50 points and 425 points. The market went lower today than it did at any point on Monday (or any other time in the past 2 years).
So clearly, passing the bill was worse for the market than not passing the bill. Everyone who complained about the market dropping because the bill didn’t pass on Monday should be apologizing now. Empirical facts have proven you to be wrong.
Although to be more honest, this proves that legislating based on stock market movements is stupid. The stock market will move based on more factors than whether or not some bill is passed. Attributing all of Monday’s drop to the bill not passing (even though most of the drop was before the vote) never made any sense. And attributing all of the drop today to the bill passing also makes no sense. Remember this the next time that people claim a bill has to be passed to save the stock market.