Mr. O’Donnell, the gay older brother of the comedian Rosie O’Donnell, has emerged as a tenacious, ingratiating, playful and sometimes prickly leader of the effort to pass the legislation.
He has helped gather nearly 90 votes in the 150-member Assembly… But he is also using the Assembly vote as a way to pressure members of the Senate, where the legislation’s fate will be decided, and demonstrate to wary senators that there is support in their districts for the bill.
Mr. O’Donnell’s unsubtle approach has endeared him to some colleagues in the Capitol and rankled others. While using flattery on certain wavering lawmakers, he has been aggressive with others, threatening to withhold support from fellow Democrats, for example, who declined to be listed as sponsors of the measure.
“Some might say you get more bees from vinegar, sugar than vinegar, whatever that stupid expression is,” said Mr. O’Donnell, who is from the Upper West Side. He added: “If you want to run for attorney general or for governor or lieutenant governor or senator or congressperson, and you’re not in favor of my equality, then I’m not interesting in helping you. And I’ve made that clear.”
No apologies. I like this guy.
Cross-posted at Pam’s House Blend.
that the NY Senate is Democratic-led for the first time in more than 40 years, and by a 1 person majority. Sure it’s New York, but this is a tough battle.
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p>A battle worth fighting for, to be sure. But for nearly all Democrats in the State Senate, this is the first time in their senate career they’ve been in the majority, and with a D Gov and a D House they can pass lots of good legislation across the spectrum.
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p>My instinct is that you’re right: there simply won’t be a political backlash for voting yes on marriage equality and that some legislators are being far too worrisome.
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p>Is there a “short list” of NY state senators who are persuadable? Are there candidates ready to run in 2010 in senate districts where the senator voted against equality? Frankly, I’m pessimistic that it will pass this time through… but do think it could set up passage in 2011, along with a stronger Democratic majority in the NY senate.
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p>There’s more long term cause for optimism. 32 NY senators have been first-elected since 2000. 22 have been Democrats, including 6 of 8 2008 first-elected senators. If that trend continues, in a few years the NY state senate will have a much stronger Democratic majority, and then some “on the fence” senators may find it’s easier to come over to the side of civil rights.
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p>Of course, the sooner NY gets it done, the sooner it happens in NH and NJ and RI, then maybe HI, WA and IL, then DE and MN. Then you start to hit a wall: MD and NM, but it’ll be far harder to get NC, WV, WY, or IN. The rest of the states will require individual battles to change their constitution, or federal action. Obviously there isn’t a set order, but it’s got momentum now, and I think there’s a need for neighboring states to see that, for heterosexuals, it’s just plain no big deal.
Sure this bill had no chance to come up for a vote until the dems took the majority, but that doesn’t mean that the count of democrats equals the count of bill supporters. there is republican support for the bill. it isn’t as strong as dem support, but it is very importantly there. then remember too that the a-number 1 roadblock in the senate is a dem. don’t let all your calculations run along party lines.
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p>as for a short list, i’m sure there is one, but i have no idea who might be on it. when it comes to ny state politics, i’m definitely a long-distance observer!
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p>i agree about the momentum. the most immediate question is, will governor lynch of new hampshire help build the momentum or get crushed by it. also, the california decision is expected in a month or less. it’s anyone’s guess what that will doto the feeling of momentum in various states. my guess is that a pro-prop 8 decision will not hurt the momentum but make equality people more determined because the decision will be deemed unjust and wrong-headed. and a favorable decision will up the momentum off the scale. win-win (although i like the latter option best, of course 🙂
… nor do I assume D=equality.
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p>But here are three things I’ve observed in terms of likelihood of supporting gay marriage legislatively:
* Dems more likely than GOPs
* Recently elected more likely than long-timers
* Young pols more likely than old pols
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p>Given that 11 of the GOP’s 30 were elected on or before 1990 (including their leadership), I’m not hopeful for many GOP crossovers. Some, to be sure, but not many. In fact, in an article I link to below, we find:
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p>”Gay marriage, while important to some, is still opposed by most New Yorkers,” Senate Minority Leader Dean Skelos, R-Nassau County, said last month. “I have opposed the bill, as has our conference.”
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p>So will there be some peel-offs? I hope so.
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p>
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p>Nonsense. A vocal Dem opposes, but he’s not the A1 roadblock. The A1 roadblock was the GOP leadership when it controlled the senate. Now that there’s a Dem majority and senate majority leader Malcom Smith (D-Queens) will bring it to the floor when it’s got the necessary votes, all NO votes are equal roadblocks.
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p>
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p>Finally, I thought a blog post at ballotbox had some interesting thoughts on the subject.
thanks for posting it. i also suspected that paterson’s move was, at least in part, a sop. it makes sense that he wouldn’t do that without the calculation that the legislation had a decent chance of success. if this is all true, in a way i’d be happy to learn it was a sop because that would signal that politicians are starting to realize that being anti-equality is now a real hinderance, whereas being proactively pro-equality is a benefit. and i think the drubbing obama is getting in the media for being silent or even discouraging on his promises regarding lgbt issues shows that just sop isn’t enough any more. if yo’re going to sop, you’d better follow through with action very quickly or you actually hurt your future chances of re-election.
Kos has a post with good links and info: Gay marriage passes NY Assembly; holding pattern in NH.
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p>Included are the tidbits:
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p>Of the five “converts”, 3 were Dems and 2 GOPs. That’s a good sign. Additionally,
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p>
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p>That’s a pretty high bar to clear — finding another 5-6 votes will be dang hard, considering that of the pool of 33-34, many of them are likely to be GOPs from more conservative upstate or a handful of Dems who are perhaps the least likely to be persuaded.
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p>This find only reinforces my instinct: this is going to pass in NY in 2011, not 2009. The good news: this may help motivate New Jersey legislators to “beat NY” to the punch, and we may find that we get NJ in 2009 and NY in 2011 — helping swing gay marriage from New England to the Northeast, with pressure on DE, MD, et al to go next…
Does anyone have an update on NH? I heard the Gov. might veto, but it’s fallen out of the news. Also, any action on this matter in RI? I’m waiting for New England to be 6 for 6 for marriage equality!
In NH, the House and Senate bills haven’t landed on the gov’s desk yet because of some technical details. It’s not a sabotage job, it’s just a matter of dotting eyes and crossing teas.
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p>RI? I haven’t heard a peep.
provided on NH Gov to sign gay marriage bill with changes over on DailyKos.
Personally, I think the first amendment already provides religious institutions all the protections they need, but if I were an NH legislator I’d go along with His Excellency’s language if that’s what will get him to sign.