Help me think out loud for a moment. Ernie got me thinking.
If you’re Tim Cahill, would you run as an independent? Charlie Baker jumped in, and he is the all-but-certain GOP nominee. So you have no chance of getting Republican votes.
In theory, independents are “the majority party,” so in theory an independent can win. But the problem, for Cahill, is the Democratic Party, which will muster everything it has to defeat a strong Republican challenger.
There will be no ideological space for Cahill to occupy, and no party structure for him to use.
His only hope is to remain a Democrat and hope he can scare enough people away from Deval.
It would be an ugly, brutal campaign, and there’s no real rationale for abandoning Deval in favor of Cahill right now.
I don’t want to see this happen, but again, I’m just thinking out loud. Cahill can beat Baker in a general election, but he has no chance in a field with Deval. He has to take on Deval directly in the Democratic Primary.
He might look erratic if he changes his mind, and he might unite the party behind Deval and doom himself to pitiful primary numbers.
But I think it’s his only chance.
Or he could sit this one out altogether.