BMG prediction averages:
Turnout: 399,927 (12%)
So BMG predictions average out to a 37-32 Coakley win over Capuano, with Khazei in distant third.
I think because they are a collection of predictions rather than a poll, these numbers represent the Conventional Wisdom, but with a BMG slant. To figure out which direction these numbers slant, we would need to look at straw polls within the BMG community. BMG Straw Poll
BMG Straw poll results:
So the BMG CW slants towards Capuano, with Khazei much more popular than Pags. To find the likely general population CW, i think we would have to adjust Cap and khazei down a bit and Coakley and pags up a bit (-4 points for cap, +3 for coakley, -3 for Khazei, +4 for pags). So the actual general population conventional wisdom is probably closer to
There is a lot of guesswork there as to what the effect of the bias is, but that feels about right to me. People think Coakley has a twelve point lead over Capuano and Pagliuca and Khazei are a tossup for third.
But these predictions only give the Conventional Wisdom, and I think this time the CW is off. I think Coakley’s support has been steadily dropping as the date gets closer and people will look at the latest polls and realize that Capuano has the best chance. He will peel off
from voters who left Coakley to go to Pags and Khazei, and I’ll be surprised if she breaks 35%.
With the institutional support of the mayors and congressional delegation, Capuano also has a local organizing advantage.
Given all that, MY final prediction is:
So I think Capuano wins tonight in a squeaker! But if CW is right, he loses to Coakley 40 to 28. This means if he does win it will be seen as a big upset in the media.