In many of the polling-related posts on this site, there has been a regrettable tendency to blame the pollster rather than address the issue.
Fortunately some Democratic pollsters look political reality in the face.
For those of you thinking that recent economic news works in our favor, here’s a Democracy Corps Analysis to the contrary:
…A declining number believe the economy is improving, with only 40 percent saying it is “starting to improve” – and a growing number believing it is getting worse. For the great majority of Americans, this is a period of uncertainty. Indeed, over 60 percent believe the country is headed in the wrong direction – stuck at that level since the first month of positive job numbers…
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Every economic indicator with political implications remains stuck – with Democrats at a disadvantage:
* The president’s approval on the economy is stuck at 45 percent, with a majority disapproving.
* Only 45 percent believe the president’s economic plan averted a crisis and laid a foundation for growth – compared to 49 percent who say it has made the economy worse. This critical judgment remains unchanged over the past four months – the whole period of job growth.
* The Republicans have a 4-point advantage on which party you trust on the economy – again essentially unchanged for three months.
* Voters are split on whether Obama and Democrats are more for Wall Street or Main Street – unchanged in four months.
* Voters by 48 to 46 percent would opt to protest the Democrats’ direction on the economy, rather than voting Democratic to keep recovery on track. This 2-point deficit is marginally better, but a minor movement.
This is why Scott Brown’s vote against extending unemployment benefits is so pernicious.
The minute those benefits expire their recipients no longer count as unemployed. “Unemployment” is defined by the government, not as lacking a job, nor as being dependent upon part-time work, but as receiving benefits.
Democrats have a bad habit of taking unemployment numbers at face value, particularly when those numbers reflect employment in construction and manufacturing industries.
Brown thus has it both ways: a vote against “wasteful” governmental spending, plus the support of those whose whose legitimate feelings of personal betrayal and abandonment trump their economic circumstances.
This is how Republicans can get away with their cynical juxtaposition of corporatist votes and populist rhetoric: with few exceptions, the Democrats abandoned their (culturally) working-class base. Tea Party adherents may be mistaken in their analysis, but they have legitimate gripes, so far unaddressed by the institutional Democratic Party.
The Commonwealth is not exempt from this statistical sleight of hand, which renders the current economic “good news” here largely meaningless.
Fortunately for the Governor, Charley Baker can’t “do” populism to save his life, but not losing – by default – is not the same as winning.
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p>Any examples of the Tea Party’s “legitimate gripes”?
The central narrative of Tea Partiers seems to be that the country has been “taken over” by out of touch elites. This often seems tinged with distasteful elements of anti-intellectualism and nativism.
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p>However, in the case of regulatory capture, there’s a lot to be said for that narrative.
about the “they have gripes” part; it’s the “legitimate” part that I’m still trying to find.
In the Massachusetts iteration of Service Economy economics, the basic system depends upon importing affluent out-of-State students who go to primarily private colleges and universities that are priced out of the reach of lower middle and lower income residents.
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p>These students, plus affluent locals, upon graduation constitute the bulk of the Commonwealth’s elites.
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p>There is no concern for upward social mobility for other residents, many of whom are either priced or pushed out of state.
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p>The National Report Card on Higher Education gives the Commonwealth an “F” grade for this reason, despite generally good college preparation for upper middle-class students. Even in the State college and university system, tuition and fees are beyond the reach of many residents, and there is little in the way of real financial aid.
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p>There is similar class apartheid in the public school system.
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p>While the problems afflicting black and Latino students are well-documented, little concern is shown for white working-class students of similar economic backgrounds. (No real concern is shown for blacks or Latinos either; elitism transcends color lines, but whites generally don’t know that.)
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p>The costs of living are so high that one sees residents priced out of their own neighborhoods – including elderly homeowners, who have full property equity, but can’t pay (discounted) taxes on higher assessed property.
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p>This “economic cleansing” has been State (and City of Boston) policy for almost four decades.
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p>In the two-tier society thus created working class whites are expendable, and they know it.
MA gets an F for “affordability” but gets good grades in other areas, but if you look at report cards for other states you will find that the only state that doesn’t get an F in this category is California (which gets a C-) and we all know what kind of budget problems they are suffering.
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p>You are correct that higher education is expensive and getting worse, but it is most definitely not a problem specific to this state or even this region and this report card does little to support your assertion that expensive private universities are somehow keeping everyone else down.
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p>It’s not the existence of these universities, but the lack of scholarship funding available to low- and moderate-income students and families – including those admitted to State-supported institutions; and the their lack of adequate public school preparation that is the issue here.
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p>Nor did I say that the problem is limited to Massachusetts, although ranking 49th out of fifty in State per capita aid to public higher education does present temptations…
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p>The emergence of a politically powerful populist Right nationwide is based on the exploitation of legitimate grievances. Pursuant to the Massachusetts-specific variant:
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p>I did say that there is little or no concern for the tangible interests of low- and moderate-income residents of the Commonwealth; using education support (or the lack thereof) as one of several symptoms of the larger disease.
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p>Some private universities, notably Harvard, have good scholarship programs for needy students, but, in my opinion, their role in disrupting communities by unchecked expansion trumps the good they do for individual students.
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p>However a cost/benefit analysis of the role of nonprofit property owners in Greater Boston, and their payments-in-lieu-of-taxes, would be at least of monograph length, and would obscure the larger point.
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Unfortunately, I do not think your assertion is correct:
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p>This is how the government defines unemployment.
While I was searching various policy sites, I found this:
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p>This does not rebut my larger point. From the same source:
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p>This does not contradict my premise.
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p>Northeastern’s Center for Labor Market Studies documents the condition of blue-collar workers’ unemployment in Massachusetts; and deals (here and here) with the implications of a “recovery” that leaves lower-income workers behind.
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p>Insofar as Massachusetts-specific political effects, I refer you to the economic cross-tabs in today’s Boston Globe/UNH Poll.
(that usually substitutes in my case for economic analysis) that the economy will not substantially improve as long as we’re bogged down in two expensive wars.
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p>As long as Iraq and Afghanistan are draining our Treasury, we will not have the resources to invest in real job creation. I say this is a gut feeling because I rarely hear this point made by economists, so maybe I’m completely wrong about it.
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p>But if one does accept this premise, it seems doubly unfortunate that the Democrats in Congress and the White House continue to support our virtually unlimited engagement in Iraq and Afghanistan. These wars bring no positive political or practical results for Democrats — just a steadily rising body count and continuing bad economic news.
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p>The politics of this situation work right into the Republicans’ hands. Obama has to figure out how to get us out of these two countries asap or he will be a one-term president.