Blue Mass Group

Reality-based commentary on politics.

  • Shop
  • Subscribe to BMG
  • Contact
  • Log In
  • Front Page
  • All Posts
  • About
  • Rules
  • Events
  • Register on BMG

New Globe poll: Patrick up 43-39; his fav/unfav is +6 while Baker’s is -2

October 24, 2010 By David 9 Comments

The Globe’s new poll shows a closer race than most other independent pollsters, though it still has Patrick ahead.  As the title indicates, the poll shows Patrick up over Baker 43-39, with Cahill at 8%, Stein at 2%, and 8% undecided or refusing to answer.

Interestingly, the last time the Globe did a poll, it had the race much closer – it showed Patrick up only 1 point, 35-34.  Then, as now, most other independent pollsters showed Patrick up 6-8 points.  Hard to say whether there’s a systemic difference between what the Globe’s pollster does and what the others do, or if it’s just random fluctuation, or what.

In any event, other news from the poll does support another thing that other pollsters have been saying: Patrick’s fav/unfav rating is moving in a positive direction, and Baker’s is not.  Patrick is now +6 (49/43) fav/unfav, while Baker is -2 (38/40), the first time the Globe has had him in negative territory.  That’s a tough place to be when you’re behind with ten days to go.

Another important result: Baker is +14 (47-33) among unenrolled voters.  That sounds like a big advantage – until you remember that, to overcome the Democratic advantage in party registration, he’ll have to do a lot better than that.  In Scott Brown’s election, the poll that most nearly nailed the final result was Suffolk’s, released five days before the election.  In that poll, Brown was ahead by a whopping 35 points (65-30) among unenrolled voters.  So Baker’s got a long way to go to find a winning formula.

So, overall, this poll could have been better for Patrick, in that it could have shown him holding the same lead that every other independent pollster has.  But it could also have been a lot worse: it could have shown him in negative fav/unfav territory, or Baker with a positive fav/unfav rating.  And it could have shown Baker with the kind of advantage among unenrolled voters that he needs to win – but it didn’t.

Still, the poll shows that the race is close, and it could well tighten up over the next ten days.  The worst thing we can do is become complacent.  Patrick’s excellent campaign team has put the Governor in a position to win.  Now it’s up to us.  Do what you can.

Volunteer

Donate:

Deval Patrick (MA-Gov) $

<input type="image" name="startdonatecustom" style="border:none;

display:inline”

alt=”Contribute with ActBlue”

src=”http://actblue.com/images/actblue-button.gif” />
Please share widely!
fb-share-icon
Tweet
0
0

Filed Under: User Tagged With: 2010, baker, ma-gov, patrick

Comments

  1. jgingloucester says

    October 24, 2010 at 9:15 am

    In a perfect opportunity to explore the Favorable/Unfavorable opinion ratings of the Governor, we understand he’s planning a visit up to Gloucester on Tuesday to tour the Gloucester harbor front. One of the things the city has benefitted from was the repurposing of a previously granted Seaport Advisory Council grant [originally intended to rebuild a derelict pier] in the amount of $800k which was used to buy a $1.5M vacant lot the waterfront known as I4C2.

    <

    p>It would be a terrific opportunity however for the Governor to take a few minutes, while he’s in town, to swing up to the site of the Gloucester Community Arts Charter School and tour the facility with the Mayor while he’s here. That way he can see first hand the school that will drain over $2.5Million every year from our existing school district. A nice photo of him with the director of a school that Commissioner Chester has now deemed “no longer viable” ought to help the campaign.

    <

    p>Or instead he could tour some of our existing district schools and witness first hand how parental and community involvement can produce innovation and exciting programs even in the face of inadequate and inequitable Chapter 70 funding and SPED reimbursement. Maybe a quick tour of the Birdseye Hammond Technology Center at the middle school would be a terrific chance to see the good happening despite the tremendous funding challenges.  

    Log in to Reply
  2. bamboobooful says

    October 24, 2010 at 9:51 am

    Have you seen this ad for Charlie Baker?  Baker finally comes clean: http://bit.ly/ahDk7G

    Log in to Reply
    • lynne says

      October 25, 2010 at 10:16 am

      nice job!

      Log in to Reply
  3. steve-stein says

    October 24, 2010 at 11:26 am

    I didn’t see a link to the poll data in the article.  Did I miss it?  I’d love to see some internals.

    Log in to Reply
    • hoyapaul says

      October 24, 2010 at 12:18 pm

      Here are the internals [PDF] for the UNH/Globe poll.

      Log in to Reply
      • steve-stein says

        October 24, 2010 at 12:56 pm

        Now we can compare the demographics in the two.

        <

        p>This poll was of LIKELY voters, the last was “All MA Adults” so the numbers aren’t quite comparable.

        <

        p>Registered Dem/Rep/Un in Sep: 170 / 65 / 256 (35/13/52)
                                                   in Oct: 180 / 71 / 265  (35/14/51)

        <

        p>Identified as Dem/Rep/Un in Sep: 245/163/101 (48/32/20)
                                                       in Oct: 255/160/95 (50/31/19)

        <

        p>So the sample is 2 points more Democratic in identification than September’s poll, but just a tad more Republican in registration.

        <

        p>The big favorability move for Patrick was among people who identify as Democrats.  In September, it was 69/21; in October it’s 82/11.  This tells me that Patrick is successfully rallying his base, which Baker counts on being asleep.

        <

        p>The strong message from this poll: “Get out the vote”

        Log in to Reply
        • davemb says

          October 24, 2010 at 3:24 pm

          The people at Blue Hampshire, who appear to know what they are talking about, say that Andrew Smith of UNH is a complete hack and that his polls (of NH) are complete crap.  That could go either way, of course, but he tends to get excessively Republican samples in NH.

          <

          p>Of course Steve Stein’s takeaway message is the right one.

          Log in to Reply
          • steve-stein says

            October 24, 2010 at 7:56 pm

            Why would this poll be “complete crap”?  The sample seems to be demographically in line with what Suffolk and Rasmussen have.  And Nate Silver has it fairly highly weighted here.

            <

            p>So why are the folk at Blue Hampshire so down on this guy?

            Log in to Reply
            • davemb says

              October 25, 2010 at 10:35 am

              All posts tagged “Andy Smith”…

              <

              p>http://www.bluehampshire.com/t…

              <

              p>A more recent posting about his calling Shea-Porter’s win a “fluke”:

              <

              p>http://www.bluehampshire.com/d…

              <

              p>And a bit more here comparing UNH with another poll:

              <

              p>http://www.bluehampshire.com/d…

              Log in to Reply

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

You must be logged in to post a comment.

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Recommended Posts

  • There Is Not A Chance the White House is Happy With This Timing (3)
  • Promises made, promises kept (2)
  • Great economic news today (1)
  • IRA passes 51- 50! (1)
  • Real “Center” is Economically Nationalist/Culturally Moderate (1)

Recent User Posts

There Is Not A Chance the White House is Happy With This Timing

August 10, 2022 By terrymcginty 6 Comments

Site issue: Unable to reply to comments

August 10, 2022 By SomervilleTom 2 Comments

Why do PUKES oppose $35 insulin for diabetics with private insurance?

August 8, 2022 By fredrichlariccia 3 Comments

Promises made, promises kept

August 8, 2022 By fredrichlariccia Leave a Comment

Schedule F

August 7, 2022 By johntmay 4 Comments

Statement by President Biden on passage of the Inflation Reduction Act

August 7, 2022 By fredrichlariccia 1 Comment

Recent Comments

  • fredrichlariccia on There Is Not A Chance the White House is Happy With This TimingThe Court has just given Trump until 3 pm tomorrow to ap…
  • fredrichlariccia on There Is Not A Chance the White House is Happy With This TimingAG Garland just announced the search warrant has been un…
  • johntmay on There Is Not A Chance the White House is Happy With This TimingI would not be surprised at all to learn that Trump deli…
  • fredrichlariccia on There Is Not A Chance the White House is Happy With This TimingCould it also mean that KARM-A-LAGO might want to divert…
  • johntmay on There Is Not A Chance the White House is Happy With This TimingIt's also amusing to hear Trump supporters blame an insi…
  • fredrichlariccia on There Is Not A Chance the White House is Happy With This Timing"President Biden victories?" You mean, the greatest achi…
  • johntmay on Site issue: Unable to reply to commentstesting 1 2 3 Testing One Two Three

Archive

@bluemassgroup on Twitter

#mapoli

mysteriousrook Ed Lyons @mysteriousrook ·
20m

Great story by @samanthajgross about Gov. Noem's presidential trial-balloon/fundraiser at Ernie Boch Jr.'s house. (Geoff Diehl also attended and raised money. 😉) Ms. Gross gathered great details and wrote the piece well. (And I❤️ Barry's photos!) #mapoli https://www.bostonglobe.com/2022/08/11/metro/an-elephant-statue-rare-ferraris-hard-right-south-dakota-pol-just-an-evening-with-leading-mass-gop-candidate-governor/

Reply on Twitter 1558027849851965440 Retweet on Twitter 1558027849851965440 Like on Twitter 1558027849851965440 Twitter 1558027849851965440
wbur WBUR @wbur ·
43m

The election for Massachusetts secretary of state is shaping up as a battle between different generations over who can best represent the state today. #mapoli

https://wbur.fm/3Pg0RsZ

Reply on Twitter 1558022089495527425 Retweet on Twitter 1558022089495527425 2 Like on Twitter 1558022089495527425 1 Twitter 1558022089495527425
ukdarkemily14 Emily @ukdarkemily14 ·
3h

Online for a few hours 💗
#maptwt #mnswf #mapoli

Reply on Twitter 1557993197229559809 Retweet on Twitter 1557993197229559809 Like on Twitter 1557993197229559809 Twitter 1557993197229559809
phoebewalkerma Phoebe Walker @phoebewalkerma ·
3h

Furious and heartbroken that MA will limp forward after the pandemic with the same broken #localpublichealth system. How is it OK to let zip code decide health protections? #mapoli https://commonwealthmagazine.org/politics/lawmakers-advocates-hit-bakers-opt-in-approach-to-public-health/

Reply on Twitter 1557991482753171460 Retweet on Twitter 1557991482753171460 Like on Twitter 1557991482753171460 Twitter 1557991482753171460
legislataapp Legislata @legislataapp ·
3h

Tweet summary for MA State House for 2022-08-11: 300 tweets from 63 legislators. Top words: law, massgovernor, massachusetts, signed, climate, energy, day, senatorbarrett, jeffroy, baker. #mapoli

Reply on Twitter 1557986818901016577 Retweet on Twitter 1557986818901016577 Like on Twitter 1557986818901016577 Twitter 1557986818901016577
courtwatchma CourtWatchMA @courtwatchma ·
3h

Oh.

#bospoli #mapoli

Michael Avitzur @MikeAvitzurBBA

... There should be supervision over those decisions by prosecutors, though. And the 58A law should be reformed.
Final Q.: How to enhance police integrity?
Hayden: We'll hold them accountable when they do wrong. No uniform or job status will preclude us from pursuing criminality.

Reply on Twitter 1557983236483080192 Retweet on Twitter 1557983236483080192 Like on Twitter 1557983236483080192 Twitter 1557983236483080192
Load More

From our sponsors




Google Calendar







Search

Archives

  • Facebook
  • RSS
  • Twitter




Copyright © 2022 Owned and operated by BMG Media Empire LLC. Read the terms of use. Some rights reserved.