The Globe’s new poll shows a closer race than most other independent pollsters, though it still has Patrick ahead. As the title indicates, the poll shows Patrick up over Baker 43-39, with Cahill at 8%, Stein at 2%, and 8% undecided or refusing to answer.
Interestingly, the last time the Globe did a poll, it had the race much closer – it showed Patrick up only 1 point, 35-34. Then, as now, most other independent pollsters showed Patrick up 6-8 points. Hard to say whether there’s a systemic difference between what the Globe’s pollster does and what the others do, or if it’s just random fluctuation, or what.
In any event, other news from the poll does support another thing that other pollsters have been saying: Patrick’s fav/unfav rating is moving in a positive direction, and Baker’s is not. Patrick is now +6 (49/43) fav/unfav, while Baker is -2 (38/40), the first time the Globe has had him in negative territory. That’s a tough place to be when you’re behind with ten days to go.
Another important result: Baker is +14 (47-33) among unenrolled voters. That sounds like a big advantage – until you remember that, to overcome the Democratic advantage in party registration, he’ll have to do a lot better than that. In Scott Brown’s election, the poll that most nearly nailed the final result was Suffolk’s, released five days before the election. In that poll, Brown was ahead by a whopping 35 points (65-30) among unenrolled voters. So Baker’s got a long way to go to find a winning formula.
So, overall, this poll could have been better for Patrick, in that it could have shown him holding the same lead that every other independent pollster has. But it could also have been a lot worse: it could have shown him in negative fav/unfav territory, or Baker with a positive fav/unfav rating. And it could have shown Baker with the kind of advantage among unenrolled voters that he needs to win – but it didn’t.
Still, the poll shows that the race is close, and it could well tighten up over the next ten days. The worst thing we can do is become complacent. Patrick’s excellent campaign team has put the Governor in a position to win. Now it’s up to us. Do what you can.
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In a perfect opportunity to explore the Favorable/Unfavorable opinion ratings of the Governor, we understand he’s planning a visit up to Gloucester on Tuesday to tour the Gloucester harbor front. One of the things the city has benefitted from was the repurposing of a previously granted Seaport Advisory Council grant [originally intended to rebuild a derelict pier] in the amount of $800k which was used to buy a $1.5M vacant lot the waterfront known as I4C2.
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p>It would be a terrific opportunity however for the Governor to take a few minutes, while he’s in town, to swing up to the site of the Gloucester Community Arts Charter School and tour the facility with the Mayor while he’s here. That way he can see first hand the school that will drain over $2.5Million every year from our existing school district. A nice photo of him with the director of a school that Commissioner Chester has now deemed “no longer viable” ought to help the campaign.
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p>Or instead he could tour some of our existing district schools and witness first hand how parental and community involvement can produce innovation and exciting programs even in the face of inadequate and inequitable Chapter 70 funding and SPED reimbursement. Maybe a quick tour of the Birdseye Hammond Technology Center at the middle school would be a terrific chance to see the good happening despite the tremendous funding challenges.
Have you seen this ad for Charlie Baker? Baker finally comes clean: http://bit.ly/ahDk7G
nice job!
I didn’t see a link to the poll data in the article. Did I miss it? I’d love to see some internals.
Here are the internals [PDF] for the UNH/Globe poll.
Now we can compare the demographics in the two.
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p>This poll was of LIKELY voters, the last was “All MA Adults” so the numbers aren’t quite comparable.
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p>Registered Dem/Rep/Un in Sep: 170 / 65 / 256 (35/13/52)
in Oct: 180 / 71 / 265 (35/14/51)
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p>Identified as Dem/Rep/Un in Sep: 245/163/101 (48/32/20)
in Oct: 255/160/95 (50/31/19)
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p>So the sample is 2 points more Democratic in identification than September’s poll, but just a tad more Republican in registration.
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p>The big favorability move for Patrick was among people who identify as Democrats. In September, it was 69/21; in October it’s 82/11. This tells me that Patrick is successfully rallying his base, which Baker counts on being asleep.
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p>The strong message from this poll: “Get out the vote”
The people at Blue Hampshire, who appear to know what they are talking about, say that Andrew Smith of UNH is a complete hack and that his polls (of NH) are complete crap. That could go either way, of course, but he tends to get excessively Republican samples in NH.
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p>Of course Steve Stein’s takeaway message is the right one.
Why would this poll be “complete crap”? The sample seems to be demographically in line with what Suffolk and Rasmussen have. And Nate Silver has it fairly highly weighted here.
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p>So why are the folk at Blue Hampshire so down on this guy?
All posts tagged “Andy Smith”…
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p>http://www.bluehampshire.com/t…
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p>A more recent posting about his calling Shea-Porter’s win a “fluke”:
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p>http://www.bluehampshire.com/d…
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p>And a bit more here comparing UNH with another poll:
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p>http://www.bluehampshire.com/d…