Blue Mass Group

Reality-based commentary on politics.

  • Shop
  • Subscribe to BMG
  • Contact
  • Log In
  • Front Page
  • All Posts
  • About
  • Rules
  • Events
  • Register on BMG

Brown an Outlier: Nate Silver via NYTimes

December 5, 2010 By smart-mass 16 Comments

No surprises to anyone here right?

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.n…

Please share widely!
fb-share-icon
Tweet
0
0

Filed Under: User Tagged With: brown

Comments

  1. hoyapaul says

    December 5, 2010 at 4:43 pm

    In strong Democratic areas such as Massachusetts, the Democrats actually did quite well in 2010. On the West Coast, for instance, the Democrats had no net losses in Congress (including Hawaii as “West Coast”). Scott Brown’s victory was an outlier not only because of the difference in candidate quality (something many BMG’ers rightly argued at the time), but because (1) it was a very unusually timed special election, (2) occurring both at the height of the health care debate and when NO other political races were occurring across the country, allowing Brown to funnel in millions of dollars from across the country, and (3) because the campaign was a very short and compressed one, which did not allow for the Democrats’ organizational advantage to gain full steam.

    <

    p>Sen. Brown will be no push-over, but with the increased polarization of red and blue states on display in 2010, I’d be hard-pressed to call him the favorite, even with the recent PPP poll numbers. It’s a pure tossup, and once the Democrats have a candidate (presumably a good one) and the Presidential race becomes defined, it will start tilting quickly in the Democrats’ direction.

    Log in to Reply
    • peter-porcupine says

      December 6, 2010 at 1:07 am

      Changing the law to help John Kerry.  Changing it back to empower Deval Patrick. The Kirk appointment.  And so on.  Scott had another ally in this race – the insider corrpution of the Massachusetts Democrats.  And that’s a player that will STILL be on his team in 2012~

      Log in to Reply
      • hoyapaul says

        December 6, 2010 at 9:08 am

        All that Democratic back-and-forth on the special election ended up backfiring big time on the Democrats.

        <

        p>However, I’m not sure how much “insider corruption of the Massachusetts Democrats” played into this race. In fact, I’d say it didn’t play at all. The special election was completely nationalized, and became about national issues, the “40th vote,” health care, etc. It wasn’t about local issues.

        <

        p>If Massachusetts Democratic corruption was a bigger issue in the election, we would have seen it affect the races in November — and other than the handful of pickups for the MA GOP in the state House, MA Dems had a great night on Election Day.

        Log in to Reply
        • peter-porcupine says

          December 6, 2010 at 10:48 am

          Log in to Reply
          • hoyapaul says

            December 6, 2010 at 6:38 pm

            But by that logic, they also lost 20% of their seats in the state Senate 😉

            Log in to Reply
      • christopher says

        December 6, 2010 at 10:17 am

        It’s not corrupt to change the law, though not advisable in my opinion.  I said all along there should be no special election to stand alone, but rather wait until the regular cycle this fall, but most people here thought it was horrible to have an unelected Senator in office any longer than absolutely necessary.

        Log in to Reply
    • jasiu says

      December 6, 2010 at 8:03 am

      once the Democrats have a candidate

      <

      p>Is the primary for the Senate race contested on the presidential primary ballot or, as I fear, in a separate state primary in September? If the latter, I think that makes it a tougher race for whoever comes out.

      Log in to Reply
      • hoyapaul says

        December 6, 2010 at 9:14 am

        As you suspect (and fear), the Senate primary will be on September 11, 2012. So it’s a late primary. That indeed benefits Sen. Brown — although the Democratic machine will be fully revved and ready to go for the presidential election. Still, it would be very helpful if the long lead-up to the primary leads to a clear breakaway candidate that Dems can rally behind in advance of the primary.

        Log in to Reply
        • christopher says

          December 6, 2010 at 10:21 am

          I’d much rather have a choice.  Steve Grossman has experience with this.  He was DSC chair when an election was held to replace Silvio Conte in the House.  He got all the candidates together and made them pledge to support the eventual nominee and John Olver won.  Leave coronations and foregone concusions to the GOP.

          Log in to Reply
          • lynne says

            December 8, 2010 at 10:52 am

            also means media coverage all the way through summer – usually a tough time to campaign, except for our late primary making summer fairly active.

            <

            p>So long as our Dems don’t bloody the crap out of each other (say, if we had a race more like the MA-05 special election rather than our recent district race here in Lowell for MA State Senate…) then it’s pretty easy to rally the supporters of the defeated to the cause in time for November.

            Log in to Reply
        • jasiu says

          December 6, 2010 at 11:44 am

          although the Democratic machine will be fully revved and ready to go for the presidential election.

          <

          p>For all of the presidential campaigns I’ve been involved in, Massachusetts was never in play, so all of the volunteer effort has been focused elsewhere. If that plays out this time, the “revving up” before the primary will be pointed toward New Hampshire and other battleground states. The presidential campaign will not be able to be “coordinated” with the senate campaign in the 2010 manner that we just went through. So we have a huge challenge ahead of us trying to do both.

          <

          p>If Massachusetts ends up in play for the presidential race, we’re in bigger trouble.

          Log in to Reply
        • sabutai says

          December 6, 2010 at 11:47 am

          I don’t believe so.  This is a primary for a federal office, not state, so I expect it be during “Super Tuesday”.  The September date is for state offices.

          Log in to Reply
          • jasiu says

            December 6, 2010 at 12:00 pm

            I just took a look at my town’s results for the presidential and the state primaries in 2008.

            <

            p>In February, the following offices were on the ballot:

            <

            p>

            • President
            • State Committee Members
            • Town Committee Members

            <

            p>In September, the following offices were on the ballot:

            <

            p>

            • Senator (Kerry vs. O’Reilly)
            • Representative (Markey)
            • In-state offices (reps, senators, etc.)

            <

            p>So… We don’t know our senatorial nominee until September.

            Log in to Reply
            • peter-porcupine says

              December 6, 2010 at 2:49 pm

              Log in to Reply
          • christopher says

            December 6, 2010 at 12:40 pm

            Primaries for Congress are always on the state date in September.

            Log in to Reply
  2. bluemoon4554 says

    December 5, 2010 at 11:22 pm

    It was a once and a lifetime  election win for Brown. There were so many things that had to have happened to make this thing work. So many in fact that you even forget some. Here is one for you …. If Norm Coleman hung on and won against Al Franken, Scott Brown would not have campaigned as “41” as he would have been “42” and wouldn’t be deemed the man that was to stop the Health Care legislation. Without the whole “41” mantra, it’s a whole new ball game here. Can you imagine that roughly 500 miscounted votes in MN and possible shady back room games would have such a long lasting ripple effect in the MA special election just a little over a year later?

    Log in to Reply

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

You must be logged in to post a comment.

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Recommended Posts

  • Progressive Mass Shouldn’t Back Stupid Primaries (2)
  • Shout this til November (1)

Recent User Posts

Shout this til November

August 19, 2022 By fredrichlariccia Leave a Comment

Zero Net Energy – August 2022

August 18, 2022 By gmoke Leave a Comment

Liz

August 17, 2022 By johntmay 5 Comments

Progressive Mass Shouldn’t Back Stupid Primaries

August 12, 2022 By jconway 12 Comments

There Is Not A Chance the White House is Happy With This Timing

August 10, 2022 By terrymcginty 8 Comments

Site issue: Unable to reply to comments

August 10, 2022 By SomervilleTom 4 Comments

Recent Comments

  • jconway on LizTake it from an expert, third parties are doomed to fail…
  • jconway on Progressive Mass Shouldn’t Back Stupid PrimariesPost the interview online and let voters judge for thems…
  • johntmay on LizAs the news of Mar-a-Lago unfolds, and the economy impro…
  • johntmay on Liz“the enemy of my enemy is my friend.” Kautilya, the Hind…
  • SomervilleTom on Progressive Mass Shouldn’t Back Stupid PrimariesAs I've said several times already, the commentary on th…
  • Keith Bernard on Progressive Mass Shouldn’t Back Stupid PrimariesI was on the interview with Rep Vitolo. He was outwardly…
  • Keith Bernard on LizFirst of all, gross. While I appreciate Ms. Cheney's cou…

Archive

@bluemassgroup on Twitter

#mapoli

lowellcouncilor Darius Mitchell_ Massachusetts Governor 2022 🇺🇸 @lowellcouncilor ·
27m

The TRASH, WEEDS, & POTHOLES around Lowell?

WHY DOES Lowell look 👀 so BAD as I walk THRU the city?

THE CITY LOST THE @LowellSun. AIDEN GLOBAL CAPITAL CUT THE STAFF. MOVE THE PAPER TO WESTFORD!

LOWELL NEEDS A STRONG LOWELL SUN, THAT HAS A LOCAL OWNERSHIP GROUP & CEO! #MAPOLI

Reply on Twitter 1560805370808995840 Retweet on Twitter 1560805370808995840 Like on Twitter 1560805370808995840 Twitter 1560805370808995840
ialera98 Isabelle Alera @ialera98 ·
33m

Really lucky to be working on ending the backlog of rape kits in MA with @Rep_Higgins #mapoli

WCVB-TV Boston @WCVB

Inside the State Police Crime Lab and the effort to identify rapists https://www.wcvb.com/article/inside-the-state-police-crime-lab-and-the-effort-to-identify-rapists/40944441?utm_campaign=snd-autopilot

Reply on Twitter 1560804025112662019 Retweet on Twitter 1560804025112662019 Like on Twitter 1560804025112662019 1 Twitter 1560804025112662019
rwwatchma Trump's election fraud hoax undermines democracy @rwwatchma ·
35m

Federal judge decides parts of DeSantis' #StopWokeAct violate 1st Amendment rights.

"From a political standpoint this is the worse I've seen in all my years. This is the biggest attack I've seen on the freedom of the classroom."-Mr.Falls, FL Social Studies teacher #maedu #mapoli

The New York Times @nytimes

A key part of Florida's "Stop WOKE Act", signed by Gov. Ron DeSantis this year, was blocked by a federal judge after a lawsuit argued that its limits on discussion of racial bias during private employers' diversity training was a free speech infringement. https://nyti.ms/3R0GG3L

Reply on Twitter 1560803482617225221 Retweet on Twitter 1560803482617225221 Like on Twitter 1560803482617225221 Twitter 1560803482617225221
qpalfrey Quentin Palfrey @qpalfrey ·
36m

Great to celebrate with the Somali community in Roxbury this evening. Thank you for having me! #mapoli

Reply on Twitter 1560803108330131461 Retweet on Twitter 1560803108330131461 Like on Twitter 1560803108330131461 1 Twitter 1560803108330131461
headlineoptics Headline Optics @headlineoptics ·
41m

Vandalizing pregnancy center ‘for giving out diapers’ is ‘a bit much,’ director says https://www.masspolicyreport.com/2022/08/19/vandalizing-pregnancy-center-for-giving-out-diapers-is-a-bit-much-director-says/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter @masspolicy #MApoli #Massachusetts

Reply on Twitter 1560802060668243968 Retweet on Twitter 1560802060668243968 Like on Twitter 1560802060668243968 Twitter 1560802060668243968
rwwatchma Trump's election fraud hoax undermines democracy @rwwatchma ·
45m

.@NewRepublic:

There are ample signs that we are in the midst of a return to overt QAnon appeals https://newrepublic.com/article/167437/qanon-goes-washington#Echobox=1660842425 #mapoli #nhpolitics #copolitics #gapol

Reply on Twitter 1560800889115402240 Retweet on Twitter 1560800889115402240 1 Like on Twitter 1560800889115402240 Twitter 1560800889115402240
Load More

From our sponsors




Google Calendar







Search

Archives

  • Facebook
  • RSS
  • Twitter




Copyright © 2022 Owned and operated by BMG Media Empire LLC. Read the terms of use. Some rights reserved.