UPDATED: Per david’s suggestion, feel free to include your guess at the Electoral Votes total (EV)
UPDATED 2: 11/2 11pm – Per trickle up’s suggestion: a Deadline: MONDAY 11/5, 8pm (24 hours before polls close) for the prediction to be counted
Inspired by recently reading Nate Silver‘s new book “The Signal and the Noise“, I’d like to bring back an election predictions thread — in similar fashion to the one I did in 2010 for the primaries and the January 19th special election (formatting seems to be a bit wacky on posts from back then). The general takeaway from Silver’s book: to get better at predicting, make more public predictions and adjust them and your initial premises based on their success.
The basic idea with this post is that everyone who is interested will post their predictions below in the Comments on this thread for the final voting percentages in the MA senate race (and heck, lets try for the Obama/Romney too). I will then compile them, build an average, and then rank them based on their deviation from the final results (at BMG, users Argyle and JoeTS were the top last time, though RMG did a lot better). There’s no prize for the winner except massive massive respect.
Here’s the format, if you want to participate (and to get it started, here are my personal predictions):
Obama: 51 (302 EV) (P.S. National vote levels, not MA vote percentages)
Romney: 48 (236 EV)
Feel free to use decimal points if you want (i.e. 49.3)
I sincerely hope lots of people throw their hat in the predictions ring, and good luck!
Last time I also took a shot at building a predictions model (Election Day post title: 53-44 Brown win? Prediction model, as originally designed, hopefully needs tweaking) to adjust the predictions for potential bias based on previous bluemass predictions biases, which was unfortunately pretty close to the final result. Not sure if I will be able to run the model again this time around, since i may have forgotten some of the math i used, but it may be interesting to see what it would predict this time.