I just posted this new blog article looking at the numbers from the MassINC Senate poll released on Friday.
http://massnumbers.blogspot.com/2013/01/poll-analysis-most-voters-still.html
The press release for last week’s MassINC poll of the upcoming special election for Senate touted strong performance by possible candidate Scott Brown versus some Democratic contenders. While Brown’s position may or may not be strong, the name recognition numbers of Democrats Ed Markey and Steve Lynch are still too low to base that conclusion on these particular polling results.
MassINC also indicates that most Democratic voters want a primary, but it seems more likely—based on the MAssINC question wording—that voters do not like the idea that party leaders may be trying to keep candidates other than Markey out of the race.
Brent Benson (@bwbensonjr)
get ignorance.
The results on the candidates at least demonstrate that people don’t know enough about candidates to make a decision. Another question might be, “How likely would you be to support Scott Brown before you learn about his Democratic opponent?”
Another question might have been along the lines of, “How much does a candidate’s performance influence your support of a candidate in the general election?”
And then to poll ALL voters about a Democratic primary? That’s a weird sample to ask the question. At least 25% according to the poll would vote in the Republican primary. Others wouldn’t participate in a primary at all. Call this question “a poll of unlikely voters.”
I would not have expected there to be much difference at this point.