It’s been more than 5 weeks since the primary; and not only has Markey been leading in every poll, but his lead has exceeded margin of error in every poll. This should not make us complacent: We all know what happened in 2010. I am convinced this is not going to be a replay of 2010: Ed Markey is running a better campaign than Martha Coakley did, Scott Brown was a better candidate in 2010 than Gabriel Gomez has been so far since the primary, and most importantly I believe Democrats learned a valuable lesson 3 years ago about not taking things for granted. Ultimately it’s all about turnout, since modeling likely voters in a special election is a dicey proposition.
All that said, though, as I look at the data, it’s hard to describe the race as close at this point in time.
Publicly released polls since the primary showing Markey’s reported leads compared with each poll’s margin of error. Green line shows the average Markey lead from all polls.
seems to have a pretty strict, and Republcan-friendly, likely voter screen in the latest poll. There’s plenty of justification for that in this situation, but it’s worth noting that PPP’s results among registered voters were at 51-40, virtually identical to the NEC and UMass findings. Every time Gomez tops out at 40ish.
Unlike 2010, there does not seem to be any enthusiasm gap. If Democrats are not as excited as they were for Elizabeth Warren in a presidential year, Republicans are not thrilled about Gomez. More double-digit polls might well dampen their turnout. I do think it’s important that the state GOP’s devoted corps, such as they are, don’t adore Gomez. He upset the right wing (Sullivan and right of Sullivan), he upset the moderates (Winslow). Both of his primary opponents have relationships with party activists that Gomez doesn’t have. It’s one thing to win a low-turnout primary because you’re the only one with cash for TV ads. It’s an entirely different thing for a novice Republican to win the general without strong Republican base enthusiasm. The 2010 MA GOP was unified behind Scott Brown and, once he started to pull even and ahead, electrified by him.
Scott Brown brought in Tea Party activists from all over the country, and they followed him to every campaign stop he made. Local media was constantly reporting that Brown held a rally and spoke to hundreds of cheering fans – at every rally, they were the same fans, even when he did multiple rallies is the same day! It gave him the illusion of great momentum, which carried forward to real momentum on election day.
Nothing even close to that is happening for Gomez. I saw video of him shaking hands on the street the other day, and it was all he could do to get a couple people on the sidewalk to stop and talk. When a reporter dared to ask a question, he ducked back into his car and ran away.
Just take a look at the comments in this Facebook post where Gomez says “President Obama wants to make small changes to save Social Security and Medicare. I agree with the President. Congressman Markey does not.” For every Dem or Independent he hopes to peel away from Markey, he loses a solid GOP base voter.
š
In the four polls since May 22 (meaning since that first 10-day window after the primary), Markey’s up 12, 12, 11, and 8. As I said above, I think PPP’s latest (the 8) is a little too cautious.
So, yeah, basically tied.
Cook really needs to learn, BTW, that nobody’s interested in their explanations. I’ve seen nonstop references (mostly scornful) to their toss-up call.
“I want a smashing, affirmative, message-sending victory”
A prediction: you won’t get one, because after Markey wins by 12 points, the press will observe “Gomez won independents 55-45”.
Gomez won’t win independents 55-45. That would be sweet.
Get real. Warren, a genuine superstar without career baggage, won 54-46. Why would Markey do better? He’s less exciting, has not campaigned impressively, etc.
Running against a popular (approval unchanged from eve of 2010 election to eve of 2012 election) and well-funded incumbent. Markey’s running against one of the weaker candidates in recent memory.
Yes, indeed Markey is no Elizabeth Warren, but Gomez is no Scott Brown either. He is much less personable than Brown to begin with and he is repeating Brown’s mistake of running an overwhelmingly negative campaign, without even starting with Brown’s initial high-favorability rate. At least Scott Brown had some understanding of how legislation works. Gomez doesn’t have the first clue.
Unlike the Warren/Brown race, the stakes don’t seem to be as high, and add to that the timing of the election during many people’s summer vacation, I don’t see that Gomez has done anything remotely like what he needs to do to motivate people to bother to vote for him.
I think that Markey will win handily. However, I don’t think that any low-turnout election that picks a Democrat in a Democratic state is going to be sending much of a message.
is the message we DON’T send.
You know if Gomez wins, or if it’s a squeaker, they’ll make it out like a repudiation of Obama and Democrats along 2010 lines, and a harbinger of horrible things to come in 2014. No message, or not much of one, is a lot better than that. So I hope Markey does win handily.
and I’ll be happy enough with that. Because it was.
The esteemed McLaughlin & Associates has produced a poll showing the race in a dead heat.”
http://www.mclaughlinonline.com/6?article=102
The story includes this: “This survey was organized and funded by John Jordan, a Republican donor and activist.”
The fact that I’ve bothered to post it shows me that I may be scarred from 2010 forever.
17% of that poll’s sample is made up of registered Republicans, when actual registration figure is more like 11%, Is it really likely that Republicans will have that much higher turnout compared to actual proportion of registered voters? WBUR poll had a more reasonable 13%.
I needed that.
relative to their share of the registered electorate. It is, after all, a low information, low excitement special election in summer.
Thing is, if the GOP is going to turn out in numbers exceeding their share of registered voters, shouldn’t we expect Democrats to do the same? Maybe, maybe not.
It wouldn’t shock me if GOP shows up at 17% despite their 11% share in the registered voter universe. It also wouldn’t shock me if the Dems show up at 42% despite their 36% share in the registered voter universe. In fact, I’d it’d be reasonable for both to happen — “unenrolleds” might just be more focused on the beach, the workweek, the Bruins.