It’s been more than 5 weeks since the primary; and not only has Markey been leading in every poll, but his lead has exceeded margin of error in every poll. This should not make us complacent: We all know what happened in 2010. I am convinced this is not going to be a replay of 2010: Ed Markey is running a better campaign than Martha Coakley did, Scott Brown was a better candidate in 2010 than Gabriel Gomez has been so far since the primary, and most importantly I believe Democrats learned a valuable lesson 3 years ago about not taking things for granted. Ultimately it’s all about turnout, since modeling likely voters in a special election is a dicey proposition.
All that said, though, as I look at the data, it’s hard to describe the race as close at this point in time.