WARNING: This is just horserace stuff. It is not anywhere near as important as the candidates’ positions on issues or the candidates’ experience. Again, this is just horserace stuff. 🙂
Based on: January-March report, April-June report
| Candidate | Jan-Mar | Apr-Jun | Change | Cash On Hand |
| State Senator Katherine Clark | $262,000 | $228,000 | -13% | $400,000 |
| State Senator Will Brownsberger | $257,000 | $130,000 | -49% | $290,000 |
| Middlesex County Sheriff Peter Koutoujian | n/a | $308,000 | n/a | $290,000 |
| State Representative Carl Sciortino | $152,000 | $203,000 | +34% | $270,000 |
| State Senator Karen Spilka | n/a | $200,000 | n/a | $200,000 |
Observations:
· All candidates have ample resources to kick off vibrant campaigns as Senator-elect Ed Markey resigns his House seat and is sworn into the U.S. Senate next week.
· What will be particularly interesting information as it becomes available is the number of individual donors. Are these fundraising takes the result of a small number of $1,000+ donors or an army of small-dollar donors that can be tapped again throughout the campaign (and who represent real grassroots support in the district)?
· For the three candidates that were active fundraisers in the first three months of the year, I expected a bit of drop-off because the low-hanging fruit is tapped first. Sciortino gaining significant steam is very promising for his effort. Clark’s relatively steady fundraising remains impressive. Brownsberger’s significant drop-off is noteworthy and puts pressure on him for a stronger effort for July through September if he is to keep pace.
· For the two candidates that joined the fray in the second fundraising quarter, they clearly made up ground ably. It will be illuminating to see if they can keep their paces up over the next three months.
I know we don’t know that yet, but if the primary is sooner than 90 days, the next quarterly fund-raising report will have no political significance.
If so this report is the “money primary” and I am glad it did not anoint a front runner.
the primary should be around mid-October and the general around mid-December. In fact, the primary could wind up being a week or so after reports of third quarter fundraising, so the next money report could prove to be a late bit of “momentum” evidence for whatever campaign(s) puts up impressive Q3 numbers.
We can knock sense into Galvin so it’s the first Tuesday in November when some municipal elections are, or align it with Boston’s mayoral contest? December would be awful.
The special general election has to be 145 to 160 days after the vacancy occurs, so it has to be in early-to-mid December, putting the primary in October.
by the Governor, within those and other parameters.
Not sure how the primary will be set, does anyone know?
Six weeks before Dec 17th is Nov 5th. Is that not too soon between primary and general election?
MGL Title VIII, Chapter 53: Section 28:
December 17th is now within the 160 day window. The 6th Tuesday preceding that election is November 5th. Unless my math is off, there’s no reason we couldn’t have the primary on the same day as municipal elections for Cambridge, Waltham, Watertown, Malden, Melrose, Medford, Revere & Woburn.
Yes, a Dec 17th general is pretty terrible, but the alternative seems to be having state primaries 1 week prior to municipal elections, which seems like an even worse idea.
As I was in the spring. The primaries in the special Senate election were held on April 30, 8 weeks before the June 25 general. This schedule for CD5 leaves an 8-week gap as well. But the law says “6th Tuesday” before the general. I didn’t understand how they set it for 8 weeks before then and I still don’t.
In terms of large v. small donors, the Sciortino campaign raised that $203,000 from more than 1500 donors, so it was mostly small donors.
I wonder how much of each candidate’s haul is designated for the primary. General election funds aren’t going to be much help…
Coming into the race, at least formally, 3 months after Clark and Carl Peter Koutoujian’s on hand cash total is impressive. If he can continue at that pace he will have the resources to be a creditable contender in a crowded field. Rep. Sciortino’s second quarter fundraising was also impressive.
According to Bernstein.