I just did some analysis of Mike Knapik’s 2nd Hampden and Hampshire district in the wake of his resignation announcement and wrote the following article:
http://massnumbers.blogspot.com/2013/08/knapik-resignation-leaves-opening-for.html
There are definitely Democratic possibilities for this district given that Obama won the district by 21 points and Warren by 4—there could be special election Democratic turnout issues in Holyoke and Easthampton.
The article has a link to an interactive map and a precinct-by-precinct chart.
Please share widely!