Who is likely to win the special election to replace Matt Beaton in the Shrewsbury-based 11th Worcester State Rep seat next Tuesday? Special elections are different from general elections in terms turnout and voter makeup, so I looked at all of the Dem/GOP contested legislative special elections since 2009 and found that 11th Worcester district does indeed lean Republican in a special election context—not surprising given that last two State Reps of Matt Beaton (R) and Karyn Polito (R). That being said, Jason Palitsch has a chance to pull off the upset—look at the performance of John Velis in the more Republican 4th Hampden State Rep district last April.
Check out my post on Mass. Numbers for all of the details and a list the results of all of the legislative special elections since 2009:
http://massnumbers.blogspot.com/2015/03/special-election-for-11th-worcester.html
Brent Benson
