Some of you may have noticed my silence from the dialogue here for the past several weeks. I want to let you know why because I respect this community and feel I owe you all an explanation.
Many of you know I am an ardent supporter of Hillary and that my best friend, Terry McGinty, is just as passionate about his support for Bernie. We posted a while back calling on liberals to stop the negative personal attacks within the party and highlight Hillary and Bernie’s positive shared ends through different means ; AND to really start focusing on the general election and the Republican nominee whoever that may be.
The Republicans want to divide us because they know that is the only chance they have to defeat us in November. It’s the old divide and conquer strategy but it only works if we’re gullible enough to fall for it. Let’s not give them that opportunity.
So once again, please, can we all just get along ?
Fred Rich LaRiccia
people can handle the discussion without attacking others.
I just ignore them. On FB I actually like positive posts that just support Bernie, and only like positive Hillary posts that do not attack Bernie. Tricky stuff. And I agree with Jim C….Cruz is meaner.
Cruz is just nasty.
I repeat, Cruz worries me more than Trump.
Some of his policies are actually worse.
Last month I was one of the few people here arguing that Trump was their most electable candidate and got a lot of pushback. I still feel that way, it’s not good when large numbers of union members are attracted to his message, particularly in those rust belt states. That said, his trade message was a dud in Wisconsin. An argument could be made that Ted out organized Trump in that state and the other states where he is winning delegates, and it’s more about the ground game than the message, but that still doesn’t bode well for Trump’s prospects.
It’s also apparent Trump doesn’t have a back up plan if he loses on the first ballot. His options of getting on the general election ballot as a third party have ended in nearly every state (including Massachusetts) since most deadlines have passed. He could do a national write in, but I see him fading in relevancy as soon as he is out of the GOP.
This contested convention stuff is really interesting and entirely unpredictable, all the more reason Clinton and her supporters should be rooting for Bernie to stay in and contest this thing through to our convention. The media is attracted to spectacle and I really think that matters more than we give it credit for. In 2008, Hillary and Obama kept fighting until the first week of June while McCain who sowed his primary up in April struggled to get any attention or air time. We don’t want their choas sucking the oxygen and momentum out of the race on the Democratic side.
How long have the “union members” been attracted to Trumpishness? I’m guessing these are Obama haters as well. Chicago is your bailiwick, but I have an old friend, a retired paramedic, and talking to him, I got the impression they and the police hated Obama. Police unions are sui generis, but firemen not so much.
The other thing is that industrial unions are small, and I’m betting hugely white. Working class white guys, the vanishing majority. I’d like to have more info on these defecting union guys. My guess is, they haven’t been around for a while.
And won’t ever vote for Cruz cause he filibustered the Zadroga Act Jon Stewart pushed that aided 9/11 first responders. So I find that dynamic interesting, while the suburban Chicago republican I hung out with over the weekend and the ones I overheard at a Starbucks are from the country club set and holding their nose for Hillary or voting for Gary Johnson.
So maybe white collars, women, Latinos and minorities are the new New Deal coalition and I have to get over my nostalgia for the Old Left. They are literally dying out anyway right, so “why worry about them?” seems like a decent plan. It worked the last two cycles, but I don’t know how sustainable it is in the long term and find this post-culture war class realignment really interesting and potentially destabilizing to both parties.
The best result for Democrats would be, I agree, that Sanders stays in to at least the final primary in June and then enthusiastically endorse Clinton after perhaps winning some concessions in the party platform. At this point, this is the most likely result. As long as the campaigns stay away from the personal attacks, the contestation through the summer is actually a good thing.
The best thing on the Republican side (for Democrats) would probably still be Trump winning on the first ballot, since he would be a disaster in the general. But Cruz will have a lot of problems too, given that his views are so extreme and he has little charisma. The worst thing for Democrats would be if they get somebody respectable like Paul Ryan as the nominee. I’m not sure if he could bring the party together after an ugly contested convention, but he’d have a better chance than if Trump or Cruz comes out victorious. At the very least, he would protect their down-ticket races and maybe save the Senate for Republicans.
Also, for what it’s worth, there’s still plenty of time before any of the deadlines for getting on the presidential general election ballot pass. The earliest is Texas (May 9th), but the lion’s share of states do not have filing deadlines until after the conventions. Massachusetts, for example, is August 2nd. (The full list of deadlines and signature requirements are available here).
So Trump could still get on the ballot as an independent after the convention, at least in most states. And even in those states with earlier deadlines, like Texas, he could work out a deal with some minor party that already has access (e.g. the Constitution Party) to appear as their candidate. Whether he would actually do this is another question, but there would be plenty of ways for him to decide to go third party well into the summer.
Though the signature requirements are substantial and ground games haven’t been his forte.
…that Kasich is their most electable of those still in the race. In many swing states he beats Hillary and the others don’t. If Trump doesn’t get 1237 on the first ballot and the convention becomes a free for all, the party would be more than justified in handing their nomination to Kasich assuming the goal is to win, lack of popular support in the primary notwithstanding.
Hillary and Obama were a lot meaner to each other at this point in the primary, they aired nastier ads, and there were significant numbers of Hillary surrogates and supporters openly threatening to back McCain. Including people like Geraldine Ferraro and the PUMA crowd.
Hillary actually has a justifiable reason to continue her campaign to the convention having won more votes in the primary, but she put the party first and suspended her campaign. As I said above, the best thing Bernie can do for the party is to stay in until the convention to keep media focused on this race and it’s issues as well. He should do this while avoiding going after her on areas where his attacks lack substance (her qualifications, emails, fossil fuel donors, etc.)
I keep thinking I should get my car a Hillary sticker and a Bernie sticker and drive around with both.
which direction to turn?
Most Democratic officeholders these days bear right, and claim to be turning left.
In Boston, they signal left and turn right.
Boston drivers have been doing that for at least fifty years.
bumperstickers or their slogans steer your car.
… with Fred, as is the ordinary course of events. Even though most Hillary supporters seem to be completely unable to resist the temptation to go in for the kill on Bernie and twist the knife (see Paul Krugman and the recent post of one of the moderators of this blog), nonetheless, I am still determined to do as Elie Wiesel exhorts, and “think higher”.
Therefore I will only point out that they both passed up opportunities to admit the other one was qualified, before admitting that one another is qualified. Let’s just leave it at that. They are both qualified. As a matter fact, in the interest of both parties unity and building the party for the future, each should pledge to choose the other as his or her running made sure they become the nominee.
For Hillary, this is or should be an obvious choice. For Bernie, those of you who think Hillery should have her head examined were she somehow to lose – to that except such an offer, can I reminded her of the ordinary life expectancy of American males?
It shouldn’t. I tried to point out weeks ago that the primary is over, there is no reason to argue about who’s best. Unfortunately, there are people who confuse their criticism with truth. I’ve gotten to the point where I’m sick of Bernie, and I started out pleased with his accomplishments.
Krugman has a particular point of view that is consistent with his view of the role of facts in progressivism. Krugman sees the Democratic side as being the reality-based, fact-based side. He was dissatisfied with Sanders’ view on single-payer and on big banks. He was accused of being a corporate shill, and all kinds of things by Bernie supporters. He would accept actual arguments contradicting him, but he was unhappy with the response. Bernie isn’t his supporters, but the sides being chosen, it’s hard to separate them.
…Fred and I cordially invited all of you, to join our mighty ranks (2). Unify or ossify!
N/T