Well, Matthew ain’t coming to New England at all according to the most recent forecast.
But the forecast for the Palm Beach and Boca Raton areas of Florida could not be worse at this point. [Update: as the hurricane bounced off Grand Bahama the path turned further north, meaning that storm surge, not wind, will be the big danger and it will affect Daytona, Jacksonville, and Savannah Georgia especially. That’s a more conservative area of Florida than Palm Beach County, though in Jacksonville and metro Savannah the demographics are mixed.]
Below is the expected position of the storm around midnight [it moved about 25 miles east of that track]. Undoubtedly, the federal government’s response to the impending disaster will have an impact on the voting in the election. Two recent polls show Clinton up by 5 points, and Trump up by 1 point. And the hurricane may disrupt voting in relatively liberal areas of the state. I expect both parties to try to make political hay out of this disaster.
In the months leading up to the general election, Governor Rick Scott has been winning points for Republicans by making repeated and silly requests for disaster relief money for a relatively benign problem, the growth of algae in lakes: Obama has done the right thing to turn down these requests and leave funds in the coffers for real disasters like what is about to unfold.
Not only is the storm expected to put 15-20 feet of water on the immediate coast, but the area near the St. Lucie nuclear plant could experience the worst impacts.
The highways in the area are unlikely to accommodate the whole population of Palm Beach county and metro Fort Lauderdale, and the hurricane could make a sudden left turn at any time and strike areas where people are evacuating to. To make matters worse, the hurricane warning in Palm Beach was provided well under 24 hours prior to the expected onset of tropical storm conditions.
On the Weather Underground site, one reader “Arnoldsw” raised the possibility that Matthew could blow out the major dykes holding back water in Lake Okeechobee. If that happens, 20 feet of water could be seen well inland, and the President and the Army Corps of Engineer would be held responsible. Arnold writes:
“Any news on Lake Okeechobee? Dike failure would be catastrophic. A few days ago, The Sun Sentinel reported “The lake level on Tuesday was 15.78 feet. Erosion problems and other stability threats are more of a risk when the lake level rises above 17.5 feet, according to the Army Corps. The problem is, the lake fills up much faster than South Florida’s vast system of canals and pumps can drain water out to sea. Just one tropical storm can boost the lake 3 feet.
I remind you of the 1928 Lake O hurricane. “Early on September 17, the storm made landfall near West Palm Beach, Florida with winds of 145 mph (233 km/h). In the city, more than 1,711 homes were destroyed. Elsewhere in the county, impact was severest around Lake Okeechobee. The storm surge caused water to pour out of the southern edge of the lake, flooding hundreds of square miles as high as 20 feet (6.1 m) above ground. Numerous houses and buildings were swept away in the cities of Belle Glade, Canal Point, Chosen, Pahokee, and South Bay. At least 2,500 people drowned, while damage was estimated at $25 million.
If those dikes fail, we have a New Orleans Katrina on our hand. ..Why aren’t we evacuating this area?”
New reports this morning also suggest a real possibility that Matthew could do a complete loop and strike Florida yet again, five days from now! Please share any new developments. At least it is a break from constant news about Donald Trump!
doubleman says
Yes, this will become a political issue and it will be gross. That said, I don’t think both sides will have anything close to comparable responses.
Trump will make a hamfisted and disgusting attempt to show he cares by getting to West Palm Beach right away and trying to help. He’ll attack Obama and Clinton for a slow and weak response no matter how well FEMA and other authorities respond. He is incapable of handling a disaster appropriately.
I think the chances of him backing out of Sunday’s debate have gone up significantly with the storm forecast.
centralmassdad says
He will go first to one of his golf courses and whine about his problems. That’s not outside the realm of possibility.
Or he goes to some devastated area, and tells some displaced person “I have it worse than you, you only lost your cheap house” or something.
sabutai says
“It’s horrible what happened. I have property down there. A disgrace.”
Christopher says
This is one of those times that simply doing what is necessary to help people is likely to be rewarded.
centralmassdad says
Yeak, you Gold Star families might have suffered, but I suffered more by working and employing people and making millions of dollars.
Jasiu says
… Drudge is tweeting that the NHC is overblowing the forecast to make “a point” about climate change.
I propose he pick a beach spot between Palm Beach and Melbourne and give us a live report on the intensity tonight.
doubleman says
And Fox News (well, at least Shep Smith) is saying everyone might die, and your kids, too.
hesterprynne says
some climate change deniers in Florida are refusing to evacuate in the expectation (or hope) that Matthew is not really a threat and is instead a fiction being advanced by the Obama administration, among others
betsey says
Rick Scott Refuses To Extend Florida’s Voter Registration Due To Hurricane (Not that I’m surprised…)
dracutreality says
The new projected impact areas are more Republican than the forecast this morning. One development already is that the Trump campaign attacked Hillary Clinton for running ads on the weather channel — and the Clinton campaign stopped those ads (though maybe they did it on their own, Fox News gave the impression that Clinton was tone and unable to make a decision to pull them on their own).
Christopher says
…there was a map circulating showing Florida counties most impacted by a hurricane that year (I want to say Irene.) were also the counties that went for Bush.
rcmauro says
… not to descend to the level of the other side.
I’m hoping for the least destruction of life and property — even if “property” is Trump lawn signs.
TheBestDefense says
On my way to and from work sites I usually take the opportunity to stay in the connecting city for as long as possible, a cheap vacation. This week it is in Florida so I have been watching a lot of CNN and local weather TV.
It is interesting to talk with locals who hate Gov Rick Scott but like his multi-cultural TV warnings about the storm threat. Earlier this year he totally f’ed-up by vetoing legislation to protect the wetlands near Lake Okeechobee, which led to the horrible blue algae outbreak this summer on the Atlantic coast. He also refused to fund anti Zika spending so his popularity was in the shitter, even as he demanded that the federal government pay. His GOP members of Congress still complain about this. I look forward to reading about their comments when he begs for federal relief from the hurricane after he has vetoed so much storm water/climate change mitigation money.
I feel sorry for the impacted communities but they will reap what they sow with over-development on barrier islands. Alas, taxpayers generally and people who purchase home insurance across the country will be robbed to pay for re-development that should not happen. I am starting to find people here who agree, which is why it is darn near impossible to buy flood insurance in many coastal areas here. The stupidity of climate deniers is becoming obvious even here, or maybe I should write especially here.
The air war between Rubio and Murphy makes both look like neither should be trusted with a school cafeteria let alone a Senate seat. The big money spent against Charlie Crist is a stark contrast with his very folksy ads. In both the Senate and the Congressional races the fighting is hard core. The infusion of dark money deep down ballot makes things even uglier.
The Ameslan guy who works for SC Gov Haley is over the top, much more fun than her warnings.