Having been a polling geek since college days, I have resisted the temptation — until now — of posting the horse race numbers. But with one month to go until the Iowa Caucus, here’s where we are today: Biden 27, Sanders 17, Warren 15, Buttigieg 8.
Please share widely!
SomervilleTom says
I find it interesting to compare this result with its 2016 counterpart. On this day in January of 2016, the same poll had the following:
Hillary Clinton: 55.0%
Bernie Sanders: 30.3%
In 2016, the top two candidates in January collectively gathered 85.3% of the respondents. Today, the top two candidates garnered 44%. I also note that second and third candidates together total 52%.
It looks to me as though Mr. Sanders and Ms. Warren are splitting the progressive vote, while Mr. Biden and Mr. Buttigieg are splitting the moderate vote. My takeaway from the 2020 poll is that the party looks like this:
Progressives: 52% (Warren + Sanders)
Moderates: 35% (Biden + Buttigieg)
I think that the progressive/moderate split will stay approximately constant. I think the split within those groups will change dramatically as primary results arrive.
I don’t see Joe Biden ever getting more than about 30-35% support among Democrats. I think that’s why his campaign is already making overtures to “moderate” Republicans.
fredrichlariccia says
Check your math, Tom. Moderates 35% : (Biden 27, Buttigieg 8). Progressives 32% : (Sanders 17, Warren 15).
SomervilleTom says
Jeesh, that’s a genuine brain-fart. I’m not sure how I got that random number.
I stand corrected.
Christopher says
I attended a Buttigieg town hall today in Nashua which was much better attended than a similar Biden event in the very same venue a few weeks ago.
fredrichlariccia says
Iowa state poll today shows 3-way dead heat at 23% each for Biden, Sanders and Buttigieg . (CBS News / YouGov poll)
fredrichlariccia says
NH state poll today shows a 2-way statistical tie between Sanders (27) and Biden (25) with Warren in third (18) and Buttigieg fourth (13). CBS News / YouGov poll
fredrichlariccia says
My Representative Seth Moulton (CD-6) endorsed Joe Biden today : “There’s only one candidate who has had to make life-or-death decisions involving American lives, and that’s Vice President Joe Biden.”
jconway says
Just a note on Iowa polls, having worked the 2008 caucuses for Barack Obama. The polls showed us consistently behind Edwards and Clinton, and the doors I knocked were not any better. Obama ended up winning on caucus night because people outside the universe of registered Democratic voters and prior caucus attendees showed up.
Sanders is accurate in my view to state that a larger turnout is a sign that he (or Warren) could do better, while a smaller turnout is a sign that Biden, Buttigieg, or Klobuchar might do better. This has less to do with the wings they are targeting and more to do with the kind of voter they are targeting.
jconway says
Interesting. I always wonder if that shows that Buttigieg is more popular or simply less well known than Biden. I know I prioritized going to his event last spring since I figured there was a better chance I could meet him and he seemed like a really interesting candidate with a unique message. Now he is just Biden-lite to me, but interested in your impressions.
fredrichlariccia says
Why Biden leads among black voters? Todays Post – Ipsos poll of African Americans provides the answer. Biden leads in the two most important reasons for AA voters :
1. best chance to defeat Trump (53%)
2. would unite country (43%)
fredrichlariccia says
Most AA will vote/caucus for Joe Biden (48%). Sanders (20%), Warren (9%). Post-Ipsos poll of African Americans 1/12/20
fredrichlariccia says
Biden UP in all 4 contests heading into debate tonight.
Real Clear Politics / Five Thirty Eight averages on 1/13/20 :
Iowa N.H. Nevada S.C.
Biden 20 22 26 34
Sanders 19 21 19 14
Warren 16 17 17 13
Buttigieg 18 13 7 5
Christopher says
I enjoy listening to him, especially when he brings up faith from the left. My head still says Mayor of South Bend to the WH is a bit of a jump and I would have to get used to a President younger than I for the first time ever.