Coronavirus has hit Massachusetts. It is, in fact, hitting my life personally, and possibly yours as well. Harvard and MIT have made rather drastic curtailments of public gatherings, so Harvard allowed a simulcast of our Mozart Requiem concert Saturday night — sans audience, but streamed on YouTube. For those of us who make a living in “public gatherings”, this spring looks bad — a wipeout. Last night we learned of an Arlington family hit by the virus. The math says it’s coming to everywhere.
Pandemic prevention and response is a critical government function. There simply is not another authority to deal with things that affect the broad public. Right-wing/”libertarian” ideology disdains government, because it might get in the way of someone making lots of money. Republicans consistently botch disaster response — and they are setting up the worst disaster of all time, the climate crisis. Putting people in danger is baked into their method of governing. They practically shout it in your face: They don’t care. We’re all just cannon fodder for someone else’s untrammeled greed — and now, the President’s insatiable ego.
Let us never forget that the Trump administration handicapped pandemic preparedness and prevention in 2018, maybe because it seemed like an Obama thing that was working.
UPDATE WITH CORRECTION: Congress restored funding in 2018, after the Trump adminstration tried to cut it. The Washington Post’s fact check rather charitably and blankly states, “No, Trump didn’t shut down 37 of 47 global anti-pandemic programs” [actually 39 out of 49] — but he sure wanted to. The administration has since changed its tune, thanks to public pressure. In any event, all that’s within the lines below should be considered updated by this paragraph.
February 10, 2018, Washington Post:
gmoke says
Yesterday, I started thinking it would be good to have ordinary citizens begin to do some of the things that will allow people who are sick at home and can remain sick at home to stay sick at home instead of filling hospital beds, to help those who are “one paycheck away from the street” endure a two week self-quarantine, and other such tasks to improve public health and welfare as we face this emergency infection.
Turns out there is something called the Medical Reserve Corps (https://mrc.hhs.gov/HomePage) which is “a national network of volunteers, organized locally to improve the health and safety of their communities. The MRC network comprises approximately 180,000 volunteers in roughly 860 community-based units located throughout the United States and its territories.”
Might be time to activate and expand it.
SomervilleTom says
I’m SO glad you gave voice to this. I wish the consequences were not so devastatingly grim.
One wonders whether perhaps the consequences of this abject catastrophe will be enough to get the attention of the red-state deplorables who put these incompetent and ignorant thugs and bullies in power. It isn’t clear what a reasonably competent government response might have prevented. We don’t know yet how this particular disorder compares to SARS, MERS, or the Spanish Flu of 1918.
The current data suggests that the mortality rate of SARS-COVID-19 is something between one and four percent. I wish the mainstream media would do more to translate these abstract statistics to terms that average Americans can understand, rather than forcing this square peg into the round hole of the tired winners-vs-losers game-show trope.
For comparison, the CDC says that influenza has caused about 12,000 to 61,000 deaths annually since 2010. During that time, there have been about 9-45 M influenza illnesses per year. If we assume that SARS-COVID-19 has a mortality rate of 4% and is about as contagious as influenza, then that will result in about 2.5M deaths per year. That’s about the same as the 2.8M US deaths in 2017, according to the CDC., Most public health experts expect the actual mortality to be about 1%, or about 600,000 deaths per year. With a US population of 310 M, that’s about 200 deaths per hundred thousand. The second link above says that the age-adjusted death rate for heart disease — the leading US cause for death — was about 165 in 2017.
My own takeaway from this is that I suspect that once again the “cure” that our government and media hysteria is pushing us towards may well be worse then disease — literally. In 2001, the threat to our way of life originated in terrorists. Twenty years later, the threat originates in viral biology. It seems to me that both threats remind us that the fundamental aspects of American life that we hold most dear — life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness — have never come cheap. I wonder if today’s college students, who never experienced pre-9/11 America, appreciate what is at stake and how easily our hard-won freedoms are lost.
Perhaps Americans of 2020 are being reminded of just how dear those aspects are. I personally prefer to take my chances with this virus than to, for example, be “protected” by the forced closure of schools, cancellation of concerts and conventions, and forced quarantines.
Your mileage may vary,
seascraper says
Why do you panic about everything? This is not the apocalypse. When you are in a state of continuous freak out, people stop listening to you.
petr says
The casualty/mortality rate of the seasonal flu is 0.1% The Spanish flu of 1918 had a estimated mortality rate of between 2-3%.
If COVID-19 turns out to have a 2% mortality rate that means–given our much more advanced medical infrastructure and our overall increase in health along with modern standards of hygiene compared with 1918–that means COVID-19 is orders of magnitude more virulent than the virus which caused the pandemic of 1918.
Tho a 2% mortality rate is a 98% survival rate… 2% of 350 million is still 7 million, which is a quantity larger than the population of the CommonWealth.
Experts are predicting that as much as 60% of the population will acquire the virus, which–again if the mortality rate is 2%– will result in greater than 4 million deaths in the US alone.
Yeah, it’s not gonna be the apocalypse… it’s also not going to be a picnic, either.
Not for nothing, I’m compelled to ask, why is ‘continuous freakout’ somehow a reason to ignore whereas continual misinformation and deliberate–and blatant–disinformation doesn’t quite rise to that level? Maybe, for you, it’s who and not what is the reason to ‘stop listening’
Christopher says
I am becoming increasingly convinced that the true crisis of COVID-19 is a failure of leadership rather than a failure of public health, though the presence of the former sure makes it feel like the latter. Statistically flu is worse in terms of body count, but we’re cancelling things left and right as if we are experiencing the second coming of Black Death from the 1300s that wiped out a third of Europe. I submit that if we had better information and more testing we could actually feel better about what we are really dealing with, but in the absence thereof everyone thinks the smart thing is to assume the worst. Some of the proposed remedies IMO are more injurious to civil liberties and the economy than they’re worth.
jconway says
Former students of mine are self-quarantined after coming back from Italy. What’s worse is the CDC changed their guidelines to let them back right after break only to ban them from school this week. It was really awesome they announced this change as parent night was about to start.
Now the students and faculty on the trip left a good week before it hit Milan, but we can’t take too many chances. The school got totally disinfected over the weekend and we ordered additional hand sanitizer. At church the peace is a wave and we aren’t drinking Christ’s blood. Apparently diapers are in low supply according to parents I know at work. Students who work at BJs say they are already out of most food and medical supplies.
My brother and I convinced my parents to cancel upcoming appointments at a hospital since they are at increased risk. Dad got mersa after his recent galls bladder surgery and Ma has diabetes. They are the most at risk population.
While it would be nice if we treated the climate crisis and gun violence with similar urgency, I don’t think the precaution is overblown. It’s a massive indictment of Trumps leadership (or lack thereof) that that the ACA was bled out, the CDC cut, the pandemic czar and his team fired for no reason, and Medicaid and Medicare cut due to counterproductive work requirements (can’t work through a pandemic!).
For the fence sitters on all sides, the Berners burned out on Biden or the Never Trunpers worried he’s still too much of a Democrat for their tastes-it’s an all hands on deck election. We need competency and compassion back in the White House. Stat.
johntmay says
“Where did you read that!?” is the reply I get from the few Trump supporters I meet each day. Most of the time it is when they overhear me speaking with someone else about the state of US health care, the current virus pandemic, and government in general.
I am struck by two things:
1. Fox News viewers are insulated from the truth.
2. Most Americans who watch the everyday corporate media are only told some of the truth.
I mention the fact that an American scientist, working for the US government along with two scientists working for the French government discovered the AIDS virus that led to current therapies for it. Few people are aware of that, Fox News or not. (on a personal note, I am related to the American scientist)
I mention the fact that 75% of all new drugs (not copycat or new and improved) are discovered by studies paid for by the US government.
And people are surprised. Non Fox viewers wonder why they did not know this before and Fox News viewers start shooting the messenger.
Christopher says
Effective tonight the state party has suspended caucuses – not my idea:(
Christopher says
MSNBC just reported that the Governor of WA has banned all public gatherings of more than 2000 people in Greater Seattle. I like Jay Inslee enough that he was a top consideration of mine when he was running for President, but he needs to read his Constitution on this one. There is no more a public health exception to the right to peaceably assemble than there is a terrorism exception to due process rights in judicial proceedings. Speaking of terrorism, if we reacted to a terrorist attack the way we are reacting to the coronavirus, many would rightly say that the terrorists have won.
SomervilleTom says
It is disconcerting that we Democrats are cancelling rallies, campaign events, and similar gatherings. Donald Trump and the Trumpists are going full steam ahead.
If we Democrats believe in the freedoms we hold dear, I think we better find a way to start acting like it.
I fear we are running headlong into a long sharp knife with “Nanny State” engraved on its hilt.
jconway says
Both of our candidates are in the demographic group with the highest risk of infection. They cancelled live Jeopardy audiences largely to protect Trebek, whose immune system is shot due to chemo, from contracting it. I imagine a similar precaution should be taken for the two septuagenarian Democrats vying to be leaders of the free world. I hope their audience is vetted. This thing spreads so easily.
Christopher says
I must have misremembered the number; I later heard 250 rather than 2000 as the max allowed.
jconway says
There’s a real risk of the virus spreading in public gatherings so I go with the science on this one. I agree irrational fear, particularly xenophobia, should not be tolerated. I differ to the CDC and other experts.
Christopher says
Let the organizers make that call, and individuals about whether they should attend. The Constitution does not yield to this.
jconway says
NBA shut down. I suspect public K-12 schools across the Commonwealth will begin to shut down. Every major expert is saying don’t gather in crowds or you spread the disease. Social distancing is how South Korea flattened the curve and is what Italy should have done 2 weeks ago. We are exactly where Italy was then. I’d rather prevent deaths than increase them and prevent disease rather than spread it.
Christopher says
We are engaged in a panic we have not seen since the Red Scares. I pray you’re wrong about k-12 – substitute teachers don’t get paid if we don’t work!
SomervilleTom says
Heh, it reminds me of the old joke — “Just because I’m paranoid doesn’t mean they’re not after me.”
Perhaps if Wall Street gets unhappy enough, even the Trumpist Collaborators in the House and Senate may remove administration from power.
It really does seem as though Mr. Trump is intentionally creating as much chaos as possible. Last night’s episode was nothing more than another brief collection of lies intended to repeat all the favorite Trumpist buzzwords — “foreign”, “immigrant”, “imports”., “taxes”.
It looks to me as though we’re facing a meltdown of our health care system comparable to the economic collapse of 1929. I don’t see a 21st century version of FDR anywhere.
jconway says
Detailed ArcGIS if the distribution. Boston is the 4th worst in the country.
SomervilleTom says
We have essentially zero data, though, because we have tested an infinitesimal number of people. We still have only a handful of tests to administer. We have absolutely no clue about how many people who are infected with the virus are symptomatic. So there might be tens of thousands of infected people in MA, or there might be a few hundred.
Being the 4th worst in the country today is comparable to talking about the results of a general election based on partial results from Dixville, NH early on election night.
Since there isn’t yet any treatment that is specific to this disease, then the only public health benefit of any testing taken today is to target containment measures in order to maximize the rapidly diminishing likelihood of stopping or slowing the spread of this disease. Small-scale containment measures like closing schools in the absence of testing is the epitome of locking the doors after the horse has left the barn.
It is true that widespread testing will, over a longer period, allow us to learn more about the disease in order to better understand how to treat it and how it is spread. Like SARS (this is a variant of SARS), such measures will be very helpful to handle future outbreaks. It is too late for today’s crisis, however.
The good news, if there is any, is that it there is growing evidence that this disease is a minor nuisance for most of the people infected with it — typically a mild cold without nasal or sinus symptoms. The bad news is that it appears that it has a high enough mortality rate that the number of deaths will be unprecedented in modern tiimes (since the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic).
I think the mainstream media could perform a useful public service by occasionally airing pieces about people who have survived this disease. There’s so much attention paid to the worst-case outcomes that we forget that those outcomes are, while MUCH higher than the flu, still unlikely.
Largely because Donald Trump and the Trumpists essentially dismantled the entire federal apparatus for handling a situation like this, it is already too late to do very much except hunker down and see what happens.
jconway says
This Harvard epidemiologist is on point in my book. We lost a lot of valuable time thanks to Trump’s incompetence, but we can do social distancing and public disinfecting to slow down the spread and minimize its effects on vulnerable populations.
SomervilleTom says
This is a good piece, and consistent with everything I hear from the biopharma communities that we socialize with.
One aspect that not mentioned in that piece is that we’re better at creating anti-viral agents and vaccines today than we’ve been in the past. That won’t help now, but will help in the future.
It appears that the most urgent immediate action — that still isn’t happening — is widespread surveillance testing. This is COVID-19 testing of populations that are asymptomatic, so that we learn how widespread the bug is and where its hotspots are.
On MSNBC tonight, we heard that there a one million hospital beds in the US today, and about 650,000 of those are occupied. So there are currently about 350,000 available today with a population of about 320 million.
The hospitalization rate for SARS-COVID-19 in Europe seems to about 15% of those infected. So it appears to me that our current hospital capacity is about 2.3M Corona cases (0.35M / 0.15). That’s MUCH less than 60-70% of the US population.
As a result, anything we can do to “flatten” the pandemic — spread the peak in any given region over a longer period of time) will help us treat it.
We desperately need testing kits. We desperately need federal leadership. We desperately need an actual administration with actually competent officials.
This is a case study in why it is so important to remove Donald Trump and the Trumpists from power in November.