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Live blogging Super Tuesday — open thread

March 3, 2020 By SomervilleTom

I just wanted to put up a thread for free-form discussion of today’s voting in the Super Tuesday states, including Massachusetts.

I was voter number 412 in Somerville’s Ward 5 Precinct 2. I was happy to cast my vote for Elizabeth Warren. Turn out seemed moderate — about a dozen or so voters in the room, no line.

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  1. jconway says

    March 3, 2020 at 10:01 am

    538 has a nifty prediction tool to see how results today will affect the race going forward.

    My Predictions:

    Sanders: CA, TX, MA, MN, CO, UT, ME, AS

    Biden: : NC, VA, TN, AL, OK, AR*

    *I think Bloomberg could win this one or it’ll be tight based on some polls.

    Now unfortunately if my predictions bare out it’ll be a tightly contested convention

    Biden
    13.8
    1,564

    Sanders
    13.8
    1,610

    Bloomberg
    <0.1
    538

    Warren
    <0.1
    233

    Klobuchar
    <0.1
    8

    • SomervilleTom says

      March 3, 2020 at 11:05 am

      Indeed, this looks like a demonstration of the outsized power of a small minority in a contested election. It’s the reason why family businesses often choose directors so that 49% are aligned with one corporate viewpoint, 49% aligned with another, and the remaining 2% held by the family. The result is that the family effectively controls the corporation with only 2% of the stock.

      It appears to me that the role of Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren is to deny a majority to Joe Biden. The role of Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren is to deny a majority to Bernie Sanders.

      The result is that Elizabeth Warren and Mike Bloomberg effectively control the outcome of the nomination. I think the real unknown here is what Mr. Bloomberg does.

      For better or worse, both Ms. Warren and Mr. Bloomberg have been playing this game of using minority shares to effectively control corporate giants for decades. They are each professionals, and I think it comes down to who can be trusted to make a wise decision.

      I have great confidence that Elizabeth Warren will make a wise choice, even if it isn’t to nominate herself. This is, after all, reminiscent of the birth of the CFPB. In that case, she chose to step aside as director so that the new agency itself could be launched.

      I have no such faith in Mike Bloomberg.

      Mr. Bloomberg is the player I have the least faith in, and whom I fear the most.

      I expect Mike Bloomberg to use whatever leverage he has to benefit Mike Bloomberg. Period. When push comes to shove, my guess is that Mr. Bloomberg will support Joe Biden in exchange for private assurances that Mr. Bloomberg will be treated well — financially and personally — in a Biden administration.

    • Trickle up says

      March 3, 2020 at 6:29 pm

      Your guess is as good as anyone’s, or better.

      Still, in the rollercoaster season, I’ll bet reality will confound your prediction.

      • jconway says

        March 3, 2020 at 7:46 pm

        Very low turnout at 4:35 at the Oaklandvale School in Saugus. Very old volunteers who weren’t sure what number I was, although they had run out of stickers so maybe that’s a good sign? She also seemed surprised I grabbed a Democratic ballot, but there’s a lot of Trump signs in my area.

  2. Christopher says

    March 3, 2020 at 8:00 pm

    Just before 8PM we’ve so far had poll closing projections for Sanders in VT, and for Biden in VA and NC. American Samoa has been called for Bloomberg with Gabbard getting her first delegate.

  3. Christopher says

    March 3, 2020 at 8:01 pm

    NBC isn’t projecting MA at poll closing, but put Sanders and Biden (not Warren!) in the top two.

    • jconway says

      March 3, 2020 at 9:01 pm

      It’s gonna be a long one

      • jconway says

        March 3, 2020 at 10:37 pm

        Wow MA looks to be a Biden state. MN would’ve surprised me a few days ago, but not after Amy stopped out. Tonight is full of new theories. Endorsements still matter, money doesn’t matter, and free media is still very important. Also MA remains more moderate than we think. Biden eerily maps onto Baker 2018 towns. Warren confined to Camberville and Newton while Bernie gets the student/organic farmer belt in Western MA. That’s it. Rest is solidly for Biden. MA went for Hillary Clinton twice too. Also definitely a Warren/Sanders split in this state. Not so much elsewhere, but they cost each other the win here.

        • Christopher says

          March 3, 2020 at 11:00 pm

          NBC just called MA for Biden with 34% to Sanders 26% and Warren at 21% at this writing. This is not at all what any poll said.

  4. SomervilleTom says

    March 3, 2020 at 11:17 pm

    I’ve been hearing a new theme mixed in with the commentary of both CNN and MSNBC (I flip back and forth between those two) this evening.

    Various participants on each observe that Bernie Sanders is underperforming tonight among working-class white voters in places like Oklahoma in comparison to his 2016 performance in the same area. They are asking whether we are seeing additional evidence that antipathy to Hillary Clinton (for whatever reason) played an important role in the 2016 strength of Mr. Sanders.

    I must confess that I watched and listened to Mr. Biden, Mr. Bloomberg, and Mr. Sanders tonight. Of the three, Mr. Biden was far and away the most compelling speaker.

    It’s starting to look like Super Tuesday is doing exactly what it was designed to do. I think it’s also reminding us yet again that the only reliable indicator of how candidates and campaigns are doing is the actual count of actual votes.

    What a surreal evening of politics this has been!

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