So far Russia is hewing closely to this playbook laid out by Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). It is likely Ukraine will fall within a week or two barring substantial rearmament from the West, which seems logistically difficult in this operational environment. The long game is much harder to plan out. Ordinary Ukrainians have a high degree of technical proficiency and access to small arms and their military has been planning a partisan insurgency for this dark moment.
Continuing to supply their forces with personnel based anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles could turn Ukraine into another Afghanistan for the Russians. Echoes of Iraq as well with shock and awe in the opening round followed by a much costlier insurgency. There seems to be a high degree of bipartisan support for this move in the United States Senate. Unlike Iraq or Afghanistan, Ukrainians already have a strong sense of national identity and affinity for liberal democracy. They will stand united against unjustified Russian aggression and will not surrender their freedom without a fight.