Who is likely to win the special election to replace Matt Beaton in the Shrewsbury-based 11th Worcester State Rep seat next Tuesday? Special elections are different from general elections in terms turnout and voter makeup, so I looked at … [Read more...]
Yesterday’s Suffolk poll had some good news for lesser-known MA gubernatorial candidates
I have been keeping track of the name recognition numbers in polls of the Massachusetts gubernatorial race, and there was a fairly significant uptick in name recognition for the lesser-known candidates in yesterday's Suffolk poll, after … [Read more...]
A look at MA Governor polls adjusted for name recognition
I have spent a lot of time complaining about how the media interprets early polling in the Massachusetts gubernatorial race as horserace numbers, even though only one candidate has greater than 50% name recognition. But how are the … [Read more...]
More evidence that Arroyo, Barros, and Richie endorsements had a profound effect on Walsh’s victory
Yesterday, I posted on Twitter that Walsh won 56 out of 59 precincts that Charlotte Golar Richie won in the preliminary, 10 out 11 precincts that John Barros won, and 16 out of 23 precincts that Felix Arroyo won. I did a deeper dive into … [Read more...]
New article: A remarkable neighborhood effect in the Boston mayoral election
I created a couple of interesting maps based on the precinct-by-precinct Boston mayoral returns and wrote it up in a Mass. Numbers blog post: http://massnumbers.blogspot.com/2013/09/a-map-of-boston-mayoral-precinct.html While Walsh … [Read more...]
Boston mayoral polling averages: John Connolly has clear lead, Walsh in second
I did a quick piece analyzing the polling averages (both a simple average, and a time-weighted average giving more recent polls higher weighting) and it confirms John Connolly as the clear leader with 15.0%, Marty Walsh in second with … [Read more...]
Analysis: Partisan rankings for tomorrow’s three State Rep. special elections indicate likely Democratic wins
I just posted a new Mass. Numbers post with some details about Democratic performance in tomorrow's three special elections to fill vacant State Rep. … [Read more...]
New article: Knapik resignation leaves opening for Democratic Senate pickup in 2nd Hampden and Hampshire
I just did some analysis of Mike Knapik's 2nd Hampden and Hampshire district in the wake of his resignation announcement and wrote the following … [Read more...]
New article: The GOP will have trouble reproducing 12th Essex success in 16th Worcester special election
There is an upcoming special election to replace Rep. John Fresolo in the 16th Worcester State Rep. seat and Massachusetts Republicans are hoping Carol Claros can pull off a repeat of Leah Cole's 12th Essex special election win in Peabody … [Read more...]
Boston mayoral poll suggests strong regional support for Rep. Marty Walsh
I just posted a new Mass. Numbers piece that looks at the Suffolk University/Boston Herald Boston mayoral poll ward-by-ward crosstabs and finds, unsurprisingly, that Marty Walsh has very strong support in the areas of Boston around his 13th … [Read more...]