Here is a new piece I wrote looking at city and town election returns to examine where Ed Markey outperformed Elizabeth Warren and vice versa. It is interesting that both candidates achieved similar results by appealing to somewhat … [Read more...]
A final pre-election look at the Markey/Gomez polling
I just did a final write-up with averages and an overview of the 16 independent Markey/Gomez polls: http://massnumbers.blogspot.com/2013/06/a-comprehensive-pre-election-overview.html The final normalized averages give Markey 56% to … [Read more...]
Latest Markey/Gomez polls do show a slight tightening in race, but not enough to change outcome
The latest Suffolk and WBUR/MassINC polls (along with the rest of the polling) do show a very slight tightening in the race between Ed Markey and Gabriel … [Read more...]
New article: Gomez will have a hard time overcoming Markey’s 16 point lead with women voters
Here is some additional analysis of Ed Markey's advantage with women voters, which has been consistent across every poll of the Markey/Gomez Senate … [Read more...]
New article: A large independent voter turnout is unlikely to bring Gomez a victory over Markey
You might be hearing in the media that, given Gabriel Gomez's 16 point lead with unenrolled voters, motivating and turning out independent voters is a winning strategy for Gomez. Looking at the numbers more carefully, it is clear that Gomez … [Read more...]
Polling of the Markey/Lynch race converged on actual outcome
I just wrote a post on the Mass. Numbers blog looking retrospectively at the Markey/Lynch polls from January through April. http://massnumbers.blogspot.com/2013/05/polling-of-markeylynch-race-converged.html It is really striking how … [Read more...]
New Mass. Numbers article: Senate candidates struggle for name recognition
The latest UMass Lowell/Boston Herald poll shows that the Senate special election candidates still have a lot of work to do in order to make an impression on Massachusetts … [Read more...]
New article: From Capuano’s 7th to Tierney’s 6th, a partisan ranking of MA Congressional districts
I have just posted a new article with a quantitative ranking and analysis of the nine Massachusetts Congressional districts: http://massnumbers.blogspot.com/2013/01/from-capuanos-7th-to-tierneys-6th.html While all nine Massachusetts … [Read more...]
Analysis of new MassINC poll: Most voters still unfamiliar with likely Democratic Senate candidates
I just posted this new blog article looking at the numbers from the MassINC Senate poll released on Friday. http://massnumbers.blogspot.com/2013/01/poll-analysis-most-voters-still.html The press release for last week's MassINC poll of … [Read more...]
New article: Gov. Patrick’s tax proposal would mean the same or lower rates for most taxpayers
Here is some analysis I did on Governor Patrick's tax proposal from his State of the Commonwealth address. His proposal will move us from regressive to progressive in overall tax structure and most taxpayers will pay the same or lower … [Read more...]