The cloture (filibuster) vote is set for this afternoon, I think at 4:30 pm. The DailyKos crowd are running full-tilt to bring wavering Dems on board with a filibuster. We’ll know soon if they can pull it off.
Meanwhile, since I have been unable to convince many folks here of the peril that I think Kerry et al. are creating for the party with this move, read the more insightful analyses of John at AmericaBlog and Matt Stoller at MyDD, both of whom see similar pitfalls – even if the Dems do succeed in at least delaying Alito’s confirmation (and I agree with Atrios: at least delaying it past the State of the Union would probably be a good thing). Their bottom line is, I think, the same as mine: if you want to try something like this, you need to lay a lot of groundwork first, and a phone call from Davos doesn’t qualify.
UPDATE: Here’s our own Cos (not to be confused with Kos) on the other side of this issue. There’s additional commentary all over the place: for example, Walter Shapiro at Salon (agrees with me); John Nichols at The Nation (doesn’t). Finally, here’s the statement of Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R-R.I.) on why he’s voting “no” on Alito (the first and so far only Republican to do so) – however, as far as I know he has said nothing about the filibuster.
FURTHER UPDATE: Chafee will not support the filibuster. Sen. Obama (D-Ill.) will, but here’s what he has to say about it:
“I will be supporting the filibuster because I think Judge Alito, in fact, is somebody who is contrary to core American values, not just liberal values,” Obama told ABC’s “This Week.” But he added, “These last-minute efforts, using procedural maneuvers inside the Beltway, I think, has been the wrong way of going about it.”
Do we know which Senators are onboard for the fillibuster?
I just posted an update on the Alito filibuster. The running tally is being maintained at http://democrats.com/
I read both Matt’s and John’s posts…and they made so much sense. If they were really serious about a filibuster instead of “beefing the creds” of Kerry with the net/grassroots, they should have brought it before the American people in a wave of TV interviews, ads, whatever it took. Instead, Kerry was where for half of it…Switzerland?
Who cares what Kerry and Kennedy really wanted, or what they could have done, right now? Let’s leave that for after the Alito vote. Right now, we know what they /did/ do, and the little window of opportunity it opens for us. It’s not a big window and we’ll still likely fail, but we have a chance and we’d better run with it as hard as we can. Encourage now, leave the bitterness for after we lose – and maybe we won’t lose.
But the fact is, this keeps happening! It needs to stop. Kerry isn’t doing the party as a whole ANY favors with this half-assed crap.
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In fact, he’s hurting it by making sure it probably won’t either a) actually work or b) piss off the American public enough about Alito and the Repubs.
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In other words, if we lose and haven’t done the work to sell it to the American people, it just looks like we lost and we’re weak and ineffective. If we’d actually done the homework ahead of time, even a loss is a win, because the American people would be more informed, and see the Democrats as bravely opposing someone who needs opposing.
I don’t disagree with your criticism of Kerry, and I’m not gonna go one way or the other on whether he’s “doing the party any favors”, but I don’t think that’s something to focus on right now. What he’s doing is much better than doing nothing, because it gives us an opening we wouldn’t otherwise have had. View it as an opportunity for us to lead, or at least try to lead, stumble a bit, and learn how to be better at it in the future. Rather than always waiting for the Senators to lead us, and either praising or excoriating them for their success or failure in doing so, how about we do the work, suggest the message, make the calls, write the essays, and lay as much groundwork as we can. No, it won’t be as powerful an effort is at could have been if the Senators had done it as we wish they had. But they didn’t. So let’s start learning how to do it.
I think it is a bit misguided to say Kerry and Kennedy are leading right now. They should have been leading the charge many, many months ago. They should have been whipping up the troops then; now they are just trying to make up for what wasn’t done earlier. Also I have to disagree when you say “something is better than nothing.” Here the filibuster could go quite badly for the Dems, worse than if we did nothing and let the vote happen. This whole effort is poorly coordinated and coming just too late unfortunately.
I think it is a bit misguided to say Kerry and Kennedy are leading right now
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Perhaps so, except that I said no such thing.
“View it as an opportunity for us to lead, or at least try to lead.” Those are your words. I am saying it is sort of late to think we can lead, we missed that opportunity.
I’m once again frustrated that you seem to be responding to me without actually reading what I said. I said it’s time for us to lead. You commented that it would be misleading to say “Kerry and Kennedy” are leading this effort. Kerry and Kennedy are not leading, they’re helping out. It’s time for us to take the lead – and we have been. That’s what my post is all about. Why are you making a mishmash of what I wrote and recombining it in ways that make no sense? It’s really frustrating.
Apologies on the Kerry/Kennedy mistake. I did get that you were say “us” and by us I mistakenly thought you meant Kerry/Kennedy because they are “our” representatives. For that I apologize. Let me clarify by saying this, if you are talking about leadership on the Alito issue and blocking him I don’t care if you are talking about yourself or specific senators, leadership on the issue is too late, at least in my opinion. Leaders are in front of the charge and the charge on Alito left a long time ago. If you are talking about leadership here forward on the multitude of issues in front of us then I whole heartedly agree with you that “we” need to do a better job and actually lead the charge.
You guys are so obsessed by him that you are forgetting the important thing. Democrats are doing what the grassroots asked them, and for a good cause.
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Of course, you can rant because the guy you dont like may get some credit for it. Not really constructive though.
I worked pretty hard to get Kerry elected President in 2004. So don’t go assuming that I “don’t like” the guy. What I don’t like is seeing Democrats, whoever they are, cause the party to self-immolate for no particularly good reason. Did you read the MyDD and Americablog posts? What is your response to their arguments?
I dont like how this filibuster happened any more than you do. Matt has some good points in his posts. I certainly agree that the effort should have been started a long time ago and by the leadership. The problem is that they did not do it despite Durbin and Kennedy pushing for it.
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So some may judge that we should have waited once again for something and that the senators who started the filibuster were wrong. I happen to disagree. I had wanted Leahy or Reid to lead this filibuster. By default, I will be happy with our senators leading the charge and will blame Reid for his inaction.
That Chafee will not support a filibuster is no surprise. I don’t think anyone expected his announcement of a No vote would extend as far as supporting a filibuster.
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Obama, however, is exactly right, and I’m glad he’s reversed his decision on the filibuster. Yes, this was the wrong way to go about things. He’s articulately described what the Democrats should have done. But the fact is, we’re where we are now, and the fact that the way we got here is not what we’d have wished, is no reason not to do all we can now to stop Alito.
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I’m going to call Obama’s office and thank him.
Sure, Linc Chafee will vote against Alito because he knows Alito has 51 votes and the GOP doesn’t need him. He knows as well as anyone that the ‘real’ vote is the cloture vote. The GOP must be getting nervous if they’ve leaned on Chafee to be one of the 60 votes they need.
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I, for one, hope that Rhode Islanders see through this attempt to play both sides and kick this so-called ‘Independent Man’ to the curb in November. Jack Reed at least has the courage of his convictions.
That’s exactly one of the redstate (a right wing blog) gave in an analysis of why pushing for a filibuster would be good for Democrats: because it would force Lincoln Chafee into making a choice, and whichever choice he makes could knock him out of the Senate. If he votes against filibuster, Democrats in Rhode Island can make a strong case that a “moderate” Republican is still a Republican, and that’s not what Rhode Island wants. If he votes for a filibuster, he’s up for a very bruising primary challenge (it’s probably taking shape anyway, but that vote would surely give it loads of ammunition). Not having a filibuster vote would give Chafee a chance to avoid making that choice, since he can vote No on Alito without serious consequences.
I thought much the same thing. He is worried about being booted by the Dem friendly state of RI so this way he looks good because he knows Alito is in.
As I have said before. A coordinated, effective drive to block Alito: all for it. A botched last-minute half-assed drive to an insignificant result: just shows your team is weak and irrelevant.
According to rawstory, the number of Senators now backing a filibuster is up to “the thirties”. They also say Democratic whip Dick Durbin is trying his best to get to 40, and Harry Reid thinks they can’t get to 40. He’s likely right, but we’ll see. The claim that Durbin is really trying, comes from a member of his staff, with name, so I think it’s very credible.