Blue Mass Group

It wouldn’t be BMG without a primary day open thread so I figured I would start.  One of my favorite political websites has taken a nothing-to-see-here attitude, but there are other contested races.  For the statewide races my votes were for Chang-Diaz, Gouveia, Galvin, Palfrey, and DiZoglio.  I’m also supporting Tara Hong’s primary challenge to my State Representative and helping my friend Eunice Zeigler in her race to succeed Diana DiZoglio in the Senate.  I invite others to weigh in with their preferences, predictions, and observations.

Our own Tommy Vitolo (stomv) was a long time climate activist, systems engineer, and wonk blogger right here at BMG before he got into the state house. Since that time he has accumulated a lot of legislative accomplishments on housing, climate, and LGBT issues by working with House leadership and his more moderate colleagues to get things done. This seems to me to be the mark of a reality based approach to progressive lawmaking.

That record of pragmatic progressivism has apparently invited a primary challenge to his left from Raul Fernandez who, like Tommy, is a Brookline selectman and fellow policy wonk (in this case education policy at my graduate alma mater BU Wheelock). This is the rare primary where I happen to know and like both candidates on a personal level, so by no means is this post a dig against Fernandez. I just question the wisdom, timing, and target of his primary challenge.

To Raul’s credit his critique is mostly substantive and wonky hitting Tommy for specific votes around improving transparency on Beacon Hill. I’ve long been on the record here bemoaning our lax rate of permanent incumbency and uncompetitive elections for the legislature. I’ve even been critical of Tommy for votes I disagreed with him on including voting for DeLeo’s last re-election, yet these are not the disqualifying votes begging for a  primary challenger Raul makes them out to be. Particularly one as well financed and staffed as Raul’s.

Tommy does not have a 100% rating from Progressive Mass, which is apparently the main reason the organization is backing this primary which has attracted a lot of outside funding and campaign energy that could be better spent on the Fair Share amendment, protecting undocumented immigrants, and electing a Democrat to the Corner Office. There are also critical elections for Suffolk DA, Auditor, Attorney General, and Lieutenant Governor. Not to mention critical competitive congressional elections in NH, CT, and RI. Any of these efforts would be a better use of time.

At a time when outright anti-democracy candidates are on the ballot in neighboring states and avowed election deniers will win the Republican nominations for constitutional offices in our own state, I question the wisdom of targeting a reliable progressive just because he voted for Ron Mariano. Using that logic previous PM endorsed candidates like Mike Connolly should also be challenged by the organization.

If anything this primary gives truth to the reality that too many progressives cluster in the blue bubbles even within our own state. My own state representative in purple Wakefield is a relatively conservative Republican who is not even getting opposed. His office has yet to get back to me with his abortion stance, although I know from digging he voted against the Roe Act multiple times. I have no idea if PM has even bothered trying to create chapters in districts that routinely send conservative Democrats or Republicans to the statehouse, but this seems like an effort where we are eating one of our own. No offense to PM organizers who are doing important work I largely no longer have time to do, and no offense to Raul Fernandez who is a dedicated educator and activist who should be in the statehouse, but this primary seems really dumb.

The “Reply” button at the bottom of each comment is not working.

Charlie and I (SomervilleTom) have looked into it briefly and don’t see an easy fix. It is still possible to reply to a diary (top-level post), and those with access to the dashboard can still add a reply to a comment from there.

I’ll update this diary if and when we have a fix or workaround.

Yesterday, Senate Democrats passed the $740B Inflation Reduction Act 51-50 with Vice President Harris casting the tie breaking vote.

The IRA reduces the deficit to fight inflation, addresses climate change by reducing harmful greenhouse carbon gas emissions 40% by 2030, promotes healthcare by lowering drug costs, and is paid for through a 15% minimum corporate tax.

President Biden said: “Today, Senate Democrats sided with American families over special interests. voting to lower the cost of prescription drugs, health insurance, and everyday energy costs and reduce the deficit, while making corporations pay their fair share. I ran for president promising to make government work for working families again, and that is what this bill does — period.”

Forward!

Updated (Folded comments into thread-starter):

• $369B in climate change mitigation.

$400B in Tax Reform Revenue including $87B for IRS to go after tax cheats; no tax hike for individuals earning <$400K

$300B in Deficit Reduction

• PUKES blocked $35 insulin for diabetics with private insurance even though Democrats passed it for seniors on Medicare
  $290B saved as Medicare can now negotiate lower prescription drug costs with pharma. Seniors currently pay an average
  of $6,000 annually for Rx. Now, that cost will be capped at $2,000

15% corporate minimum tax

Ed Kilgore, a veteran Democratic strategist and progressive policy wonk, has a must read piece in NY Magazine. He coldly analyzes the pros and cons of Biden running for re-election and seems to pin his 80th birthday (Nov 20) as the day of decision for Democrats. This day comes 12 days after the midterms and if the Democrats lose as many seats as they are projected to and lose the Senate, it could be the day other Democrats start openly preparing for primary challenges or a pressure campaign to get Biden to step down.

Kilgore crunches the numbers and they are not good:

There’s not much ambiguity when you look at the poll’s internals, either. Liberals want a different nominee by a 78-21 margin, but so do moderates by a 72-28 margin. Seventy-eight percent of white Democrats want a new standard-bearer, but so do 73 percent of Democratic people of color. Sure, older folks like Uncle Joe more than younger folks, but even 69 percent of Democrats over the age of 45 want a different 2024 nominee. There’s just no silver lining in the numbers.

I added those italics for emphasis, just so the message is clear. This is a reality based blog and I think it is critical we make our decisions based on empirical evidence and not blind belief. This should be the thing that separates modern liberals from whatever has become of American conservatives. Biden is lower than any other president was at this point in his term, including Carter and Trump. A recession in 2023 is very likely and we know how the 91’ recession cratered HW Bush’s post-Gulf War approval ratings and made him a one term president. If Biden continues to poll below 35% for another year, the reality is he cannot get re-elected.

This should concern all of us especially as the prospect of a second Trump term or a first DeSantis term is becoming more and more likely. We cannot assume the Jan 6 cavalry will save us. We cannot bank on Joe Manchin saving us (although his about face or 3-D chess move was a huge shot in the arm to the administration).

So we have to have two parallel thoughts. We should do everything in our power to raise these approval ratings and support the President. This means calling recalcitrant Democratic lawmakers to support his agenda and working tirelessly on behalf of midterm candidates for the House and Senate. It also means getting ready now think about which alternative candidate can quickly win the nomination, unite the party, and pivot to another bruising primary against Donald Trump or one of his many neofascist clones in the Republican Party. Wishful thinking won’t beat back the Republicans any better.