I was never really good at advanced math, but I could always add and subtract. So why am having problems with Gabrieli’s numbers?
In order to get on the ballot, Gabrieli needs fifteen percent of the delegates at the nominating convention; so does Reilly. Considering that Patrick’s amazing victory in the caucuses gave him two thirds of the elected delegates, it is obvious that the uncommitted are pretty scarce.
My guess is that Gabrieli is much better at numbers than I am, so it is pretty clear that he knows as well as I that his chances are – to be kind – limited. No campaign organization; no broad support, or even name recognition, not to mention a very late start. So what’s his game? He has to know that Patrick’s delegates are zealously devoted to their candidate, so they are not moving. He must also have some inkling that Reilly’s delegates are also committed – although more out of personal loyalty and deal making than anything else. (Yeah I know about the ex-officios and the convention deals, but even with those, I think the margins are not enough to prevent what could be an embarrassment for an already two time looser.)
So I have a suspicion that Gabrieli’s move for governor is not as straightforward as we are being led to believe.
There does seem to be a whiff of a senatorial race lingering in the wind, though. I wonder if this gubernatorial bid is more to get some publicity – and credibility – to get started on the real road. About four hundred miles south to Washington, not three blocks east to the corner office.
Kennedy has already declared he is running this year which will put him in for another six and I seriously doubt Kerry will give up his seat in the next election cycle even if he running for Pres again (no comment) at the same time. Do you?
the only one who’s math doesn’t add up.
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First, barring stumbles by either (which is a big IF) the delegates for Patrick and Reilly are locked in. There are add-ons and some uncommitteds, but not enough to mount a serious challenge.
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Second, the closests Senatorial race is also an IF. It would be 2008, IF Kerry runs for President again. My guess is he will … and it will be a great year to be a political junkie as any of 10 candidates legitimately think they’ll have a shot. However, none of those ten candidates are Chris Gabrieli – my guess is the following will run for the Senate – Joe Kennedy (my vote and the family seat), Meehan, Lynch, Markey, Frank (Markey and Frank depending on the House’s status), Delahunt, Cahill, Coakley (breakthrough the boys club, was about to run if Kerry won in 2004), Tierney, Galvin
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and thats the short list (personally, and this is coming from a Reilly supporter, I’d love to see Deval Patrick running cause I think he’d be a better Senator than a Governor, but thats a personal pipe dream with no reason to believe he’d want to run for it). It adds up, and up, and up … making a tall mountain for Chris to climb.
Hope you didn’t think I meant Patrick will run for the Senate! I HAVE heard from a few people that Gabrieli IS interested in the 2008 run. I don’t think Kerry will run for both senate and president, and his term is up in 2008, no?
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I would certainly not disagree at all with your assessment that Gabrieli’s chances are slim, especially with a field so crowded, but that doesn’t mean he won’t run. Afterall, there really isn’t much chance he will be governor.
on how an office seeker doesn’t necessarily make what we would consider rational decisions
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By law, Kerry can’t run for both Senate and President. I’m not sure what that necessarily means (i.e. what the date is by which he would have to choose to officially enter one or the other, or if by by entering the Iowa caucuses he would be dsiqualified from running for Senate), but I know its the case.
…I’ll offer an insightful opinion. I think the state law prohibits one person’s name from appearing twice on the ballot–unless of course we change that law also. So I’m assuming that Kerry and run in the primaries…Iowa and NH at least and maybe more (depending on MA filing laws) before he has to make a final decision. Poliitically though he’d face a firestorm. As we all know, running statewide–unless your rich–requires lead time to fundraise and all. All of the above candidates, the state party and key money people will be putting losts of pressure on Kerry in Spring of ’07 to announce he will not run for the Senate if he runs for the Presidency again. Of course Kerry could refuse and ruffle lots of important people he’ll need for Senate reelection.
Is that just a MA law. If not how did Lieberman run for Senate and VP at the same time?
just MA law. Each state determines the rules for how many offices you can run for at once, some say only one federal … it also depends at what cutoff point the state has for declaring, etc.
Well that is at least a good example of MA electoral laws making sense.
Here’s what you’re missing from the Globe article:
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Patrick won 2/3 of the committed elected delegates. That says nothing about how many uncommitted elected delegates remain. For example, if Patrick won 1500 delegates and Reilly won 750, there would still be around 1000 uncommitted elected delegates remaining. This is in addition to any uncommitted ex-officio and add-on delegates are out there. (These numbers are for sample purposes only – I don’t know of a source that states approximately how many elected delegates are committed.)
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However, I agree with your main premise that Gabrieli faces an uphill battle.
Supposedly a big name is thinkin of running against Kennedy? I don’t know if this is true or not, cause I haven’t heard it from enough people to make it even a good rumor.
our side or theirs? If its theirs they’ve got no one who can compete against Kennedy, let alone in an open battle.
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If someone from our side took a run it would just be absurd, but could be interesting.