Blue Mass Group

Reality-based commentary on politics.

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    • One or the other is way off base. Not sure which however. I would not get overly excited about this poll, but it is a positive trend for Patrick. I think as he becomes more visible questions about his relations to Ameriquest, Coca-Cola, Texaco, and his own (quickly paid off) tax lien will come under closer scruitiny. We shall see how those effect him.

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      One thing that IS positive in this is that Heally and Mihos trail both our candidates. Don’t get comfy, but that is a good position to be in at this point in the race. 

      • Is the stumbling of last week from the Reilly campaign. I know it was teh “watercooler” talk all week where I work, but that significant a swing in one week is pretty amazing. The poll ended on Saturday where there was some pretty good net buzz about the caucuses, for Deval, but it had yet to hit the major papers or TV stations. I would have love to have seen the splits for the 3 days. Maybe when the cross tabs come out we can see if there was a trend or not.

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        PS After having worked on the Clark campaign in NH I have learned the only poll that matters is the one on election day. After Iowa we lost almost half our support in a week. Things can change quickly, but this quickly truly shocks me.

      • I’m sure the repugnentcans will try to find a way to spin the tax lein thing, but the “I couldn’t pay my taxes one year, reported it, and paid the balance the next year” isn’t really going to be a deciding factor in most people’s choice.

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        The Ameriquest thing, yes, could become a problem… but he does seem to have an explanation for that… he just has to get that explanation out.  The fact that Ameriquest is currently spending plenty on advertising about how great they are isn’t going to hurt… more people watch the Superbowl commercials than read the business section of the newspaper.

              • … That was settled 10 years ago; let’s focus on the issues that really matter to the people of Massachusetts….

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                Really, trying to spin the IRS lien non-issue into something significant (a la Swift Boat Vets) is just going to make Reilly and/or Healey and/or Mihos look pretty pathetic. (Granted this strategy worked for Shrub, but I think Kerry was in a more vulnerable position to start with.)

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                And honestly, there’s not a damn thing that the Patirck campaign can do about this anyways: either he’ll be Swfit Boated or he won’t. It’s out of his hands. The thing to do is be honest and keep the focus on the real issues.

              • I know, but as I said, I don’t think that it’s going to be a big issue.  Everyone has had financial problems at some point in their lives, and most people step up and rectify the situation as soon as they are able.  Le Fleur is in toruble because it doesn’t seem that she has done anything to fix her situation.  Patrick fixed it almost immediately.  I think that the repugnicants will try to spin it, but I don’t think that it’s really going to hold water with the average voter, so long as he gets his side of the story out at the same time.

                • Maybe it’s just because I’ve been going back and forth with FrankSkeffington so much lately, but it’s a reasonable to wonder how much impact a slogan like “Debeat Democrats” or “Deadbeat Deval” might have with the uber-causal voter in the week or so leading up to an election.

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                  Borrowing from the Everett Rogers diffusion of innovation theory, we’re already through the “innovator” and “early adopter” stages, and approaching the “early marjority” stage.

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                  (As an aside, I wonder how well this model might correspond to the poll results we’re currently seeing: innovators — 2.5%; early adopters — 13.5%; early majority — 34%; late majority — 34%; and laggards — 16%)

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                  DP needs to undercut this by coming out early and often, making his case on the real issues and reaching out to more key voters: the “early” and “late majority,” as it were.

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                  Frank would probably worry that even this might not be enough for the projected 10% (16%?) or so of swing voters — the “laggards” — who won’t even pay attention until the week or so before the election.

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                  (Frank: I’m not trying to put words in your mouth or anything, but you seem to be starting to get through to me. Worrywart!)

                • Lets just hope that plays with the public. I mentioned I ran this weekend to a coworker who is a right wing radio listener and her response was “Patrick… he is a crook too,” bringing up the Ameriquest and lein issues. So we know they are going to use these as ammo and need to stay ahead of the curve on these. That is all I am saying.

                • That DP’s tax issues are about as relevant at the Sean Healey’s sweatheart deal up in Beverly Farms. Both issues should be long dead and buried. If someone wants to dig them up again, however, they need to be prepared for payback.

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                  That being said, DP seems to be running a pretty savvy campaign so far, and I don’t see him getting into any mudslining battles. How well he’s able to stay ahead of the curve on these issues is something else again, but my guess is that the campaign has anticipated these roadbumps and has a game plan ready to go if and when the need arises (case in point: Marie St. Fleur).

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                  Finally, DP’s never going to appeal to the Rabid Right anyways. Unless there seems to be a strong public sentiment along the lines of “he’s a crook,” I don’t think he needs to be too worried. Prepared, yes; worried, no. In the meantime, stay on message.

  3. Hilarious info in this poll, but before that, let me get to the most interesting nuggets buried in the poll:

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    Among Democrats polled who knew both who Reilly and Patrick were (113 people), here are the results after the pollster gave the people more info about each candidate:

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    Silbert 18%
    Goldberg 12%
    Murray 8%
    Kelley 5%

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    Among the Dems and Inds who know Reilly and Healey (143 people), the breakdown is this:

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    Silbert 16%
    Goldberg 14%
    Murray 13%
    Kelley 3%

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    Among Dems and Inds who know Patrick and Healey (107):

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    Silbert 19%
    Goldberg 12%
    Murray 9%
    Kelley 5%

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    All that tells me one thing: people want a woman on the ticket, and, at this point, when they learn about each candidate’s positions, Silbert’s message resonates the best.  A lot could and will change, and lord knows this poll’s mechanics could be off, but it’s an interesting starting point.

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    Now, for the funny part:

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    The pollsters apparently asked 233 people who they preferred for LG:

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    Goldberg 6%
    Silbert 5%
    Murray 4%
    Kelley 4%

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    Then they added in Nancy Kerrigan:

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    Kerrigan 9%
    Goldberg 5%
    Silbert 3%
    Murray 3%
    Kelley 2%

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    Then they told people about the candidates, and left Kerrigan in there (only 181 people):

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    Silbert 13%
    Murray 13%
    Goldberg 12%
    Kelley 4%
    Kerrigan 4%

    • That those were thrown in to guage simple name recognition. In which case, the Lt. Gov candidates have some work to do. Notice Doug Flutie as the Republican Lt. Gov.

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      One very interesting question is Q10. 47% of the independents who were surveyed indicated they typically vote Democratic. 19% republican 27% Swing. Interesting.

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      Oh and if Kurt Schilling ran as an independent (btw he is a big repub supporter) he would take 14% mostly from Heally and undecided. Tom Brady has similar numbers again taking most of his points from Heally and Undecided.

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      Seriously though another good question is Do you know and same sex married couples. A whopping 38% responded yes. I would be in that category, but that number seem VERY high to me. Along with that 16% said it should be absolutely prohibited, 27 percent say civil union, and 46% support legal same sex marriage. Wow.

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      Other things that popped out at me Reilly leads in the 26-35 and 65+ age brackets. Deval leads in all others. Reilly has a lead with women, while Deval leads amongs men. Again scratching my head.

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      The distribution of enrollment seemed about right 48% independent, 36% Dem, 14% Republican, 1% Lib, 1% Green

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      38% of people have never heard of Deval and 33% have heard of him, but do not yet have an oppinion of him. Compare to 8% have not heard of Reilly and 25% have heard but are undecided. WE STILL HAVE A LOT OF WORK TO DO ON THIS ONE AND HAVE ROOM TO GROW!

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      A weak spot after more information only 6% of dems/dem leaners that did not pick went for Deval. 27% for Reilly. We need to work on that too.

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      Well those are my highlights. Time to stop looking at the cross tabs before I go cross eyed.

    • I heard Silbert speak tonight, and I was very impressed with not only what she had to say, but also her personal story.  I’m embarrassed to say it, but I haven’t been paying as much attention to the lg’s race as I really ought to have been… but I’m really glad to hear that she’s doing so well.

    • I love the whole Nancy Kerrigan thing. Kinda wonder how Kristy Yomagushi would do, or Tara Lipinski, haha.

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      Who did the poll?

  4. Hi, newbie posting.  This is a great site, just found it this weekend.  So many knowledgeable and active people.  I expect I’ll mostly just be a reader, but being a nerd I think numbers are fun.  From my first glance at the numbers:

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    I went into Banner 5 of the pdf, and found that there were a total of 334 Dems and Independents in the sample group.  Of these, only 92 ventured an opinion either favorable or unfavorable (60%+ favorable) of Patrick.  Back of the envelope, 92/334 ~ 27.8%.  Cut out the third of unfavorables, and the number that know who Patrick is and have a favorable is about 19%.  And his overall result from that sample was 30%?  That is a result that isn’t really about Patrick at all, it’s about Reilly. It’s not a good one for Reilly, either.  I would read it overall as saying that there is a low threshold of acceptability for a challenge to Reilly among much of the primary electorate. 

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    One other thing I noticed in the small sample of voters that offered an opinion of Patrick is that his name recognition is far higher among males than among females.  Perhaps the smallness of the sub-sample produces a fluke, but interesting and potentially significant if it reflects something genuine.

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