The National Election Data Archive, a group of volunteer mathematicians, has released A Novice’s Guide to Why the Ohio 2004 Exit Poll Discrepancy Matters to Americans and How We Can Ensure the Integrity of Future Elections. The report maintains the 2004 Ohio vote was fixed for Bush: “The discrepancy between reported votes and exit poll shares tended to be more severe in precincts that reported more votes more for Bush. The pattern of discrepancy between exit polls and reported vote cannot be explained by random error.”
The group has asked for university mathematics and statistics departments to compare their conclusions with those of an earlier group that concluded the Ohio vote was fair. Any takers here in well-educated Massachusetts?
Looking to the future, the report discusses why current measures to ensure vote count accuracy, such as testing and certification, are inadequate; discusses how evidence of vote miscounts are hidden by current election reporting procedures, and recommends independent vote count audits, public election data monitoring, and public exit poll data in future elections.
I found this post reassuring. I’d love to see the same analyses applied to only the Ohio data; it doesn’t seem implausible that one state would be corrupt, while the others weren’t.
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http://www.mysterypollster.com/main/2004/12/so_why_were_the.html