One thing the Reilly folks have done well with this week: the meme that he’s not going to do well at the caucuses this weekend.
In the Globe article today: “His supporters predict he will probably have a poor showing in Democratic caucuses this weekend against rival Deval Patrick.”
OK, so I’m a bad linker – I can’t find anymore press stories, but I feel like I read them. Maybe it was on WBUR this AM that I heard this being said too.
My point is this: Deval is in a bind because you know that the Reilly folks will put out a release Sunday in local papers and the Globe and Herald saying that they “won” a lot more caucuses than they anticipated. If Reilly gets solid support in some more “liberal” areas near Boston – like Brookline, Arlington, etc… – I think the media will believe Reilly did better than expected.
So, unless Deval completely blows Reilly away – something that is unlikely – he’s going to be labeled as Kerry and Gore were after the debates with Bush and people/the media will say: “Wow, we thought he was going to do so much better. We heard Deval was so much more organized than Reilly. What happened?”
Not a bad job by the Reilly folks for making him eligible to be the Comeback Kid of 2006. Can’t you just see it? He wins the convention and the media calls it an “upset”? He polls really far ahead of Patrick before Patrick goes on the air and people say it’s a surprise he’s leading by so much?
david says
Reilly’s folks have done a good job on the lowered expectations game for the caucuses. However, it’s such inside baseball that I doubt it’ll really make much difference. Unlike the debates, which really are the marquee event of the presidential campaign, the vast majority of voters don’t know when the caucuses are, or what they do. Frankly, I’m unclear on how they actually work. So I don’t see them as a major factor. Assuming everyone gets their 15%, they’ll be over quickly and will have next to zero impact on the campaign.
david says
Sco has an excellent summary of what to expect if you go.
tim-little says
As I understand it the 15% really comes into play at the convention, not the caucuses themselves.
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The caucuses, of course, are important in that they determine which delegates get sent to the convention to support one candidate or the other. The idea for each campaign is to send as many delegates as possible for its side.
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Of course, I’m sure most people reading this blog already know that much….
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My point (finally) is that I don’t think either side should come away from the caucuses crowing about anything. While both Reilly and Patrick are trying to send as many delegates as possible, I suspect that there may still be some delegates who are on the fence, or who might even “jump” if one candidate or the other does something unforgivably stupid. (Or, if another candidate — e.g., Coakley — enters the race.)
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The crowing about beating expectations can start after the convention.
northshoredem says
The Reilly camp has indeed done a great job at lowering expectations, particularly given the changes in the makeup of delegates to the convention. With ex-officio delegates making up 30-35% of the total, Reilly likely walks in to the convention with 20-25% before anyone at tomorrow’s caucuses even weighs in based on his long relationship with most elected officials. That’s one heck of a head start.
hoss says
I knew I read this somewhere: it was Adam over at The Phoenix who wrote pretty much the same thing as I did. Apologies for plagiarizing.
patricka says
Unlike the Presidential delegate process, where delegates are “committed” to candidates, there are no committed delegates in the Massachusetts party caucuses.
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If I am elected as a delegate on Saturday, I don’t have to do anything about supporting a candidate until it comes time to vote on June 3. I know a number of individuals who will likely be elected as delegates who are uncommitted in the Governor’s race (or committed to “Victory in November”).
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So there are no verifiable ways of claiming delegate counts from this weekend, especially down the ticket.
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By comparison to four years ago, when three of the five candidates were struggling to get the 15% of the delegate vote that they needed to get on the September ballot, there’s no real tension here. (The same cannot be said for Lt. Governor, of course).
david says
I just got a robo-call from the Patrick campaign urging me to show up at my caucus and vote for his slate. Anyone getting similar appeals?
frankskeffington says
I didn’t see you post and wasted a quick diary on it.
frankskeffington says
Based on the volume of comment posting on recent diaries, and new names…I project a 30 % jump in traffic for you guys…
david says
this has been a huge week so far – we’ve cleared 1,500 visitors every day this week and have added 30 registered users since Sunday. Big news in MA politics = big traffic on MA political blogs!
tim-little says
Well, there was this in yesterday’s Globe that has me wondering the same thing:
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“‘There’s shrapnel everywhere,’ said state Senator Steven C. Panagiotakos, a key Reilly supporter from Lowell. ‘On the eve of the caucuses, it’s bad timing for this. It takes the wind out of our sails.’
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“The Patrick forces, already better organized than Reilly’s, now have a chance at winning more delegates on Saturday in Lowell, a city where Reilly has always run well, Panagiotakos said.”
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My sense is that Sen. P. is definitely overstating the impact that this week’s foibles will have going into the caucus tomorrow. Lowell still seems to be either strongly in the Reilly camp or totally uncommitted. I expect things to be close tomorrow, with plenty of diehards showing on either side. I don’t see a Patrick landslide, much as I might hope for one.
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Is this a case of intentionally setting the bar low? I don’t know, but it definitely seems that way.
jaybooth says
Most of the slates coming from Lowell tend to be from Panagiotakos’s camp, which implies that they’ll go Reilly.
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Of course, this year has seen a fair number of new players like most of us on this blog and I’m only repeating what I’ve been told here.