Does Deval have 75% of the convention vote sewn up? Doubtful, but it can not be entirely dismissed. He just may have 75% of the delegates elected on Caucus Day (as opposed to just plain old “elected delegates”, but we digress.)
He certainly has his share of State Committee members alsoâprobably a super majority, but is weak among the elected officials. The real wild card is the 700 “add ons” made up of the under 35 crowd, minorities and…is there a 3rd group? One has to guess that the add ons are Patrick naturals, but time will tell. Labor is a wild card, with most unions not picking a horse yet and a couple going Deval’s way and some Reilly’s way.
I would think that the whole “Draft” Gabrieli thing–had to come from Reilly “supporters” who were with him because they thought Reilly’s nomination was inevitable and now they’re looking for a new horse. Deval’s folks certainly are not wavering.
So with Deval having the lion’s share of the delegates, Chris and Tom will be fighting for the crumbs. The question is: are their enough crumbs for both Reilly and Gabrieli to get 15% each? I don’t think so. One will be voted off the Island. And maybe neither can get the 15%…and that is why we all love the game of politics.
Tom Reilly will get his 15%, between ex officios and those elected at the caucuses (From Lowell and Boston and elsewhere) he’s probably got that sewn up today.
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As for Chris Gabrieli, he’s donated so much money to Democratic causes in the past that he’ll be able to pull in enough favors to get 15%. That said, in ’02 Reich and (maybe) Tolman didn’t get 15% on the first ballot. Still, under those rules, that was not the death blow to the candidacy that is now.
Reich cleared 15% on the first ballot. Grossman got it on the first ballot, Tolman got it on the second.
Reich did clear 15% on the first ballot, but just barely. I googled up the results:
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Tom Birmingham : 30.5%
Shannon O’Brien : 30.1%
Steve Grossman : 21.9%
Robert Reich : 15.85%
Warren Tolman : 1.6%
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The Tolman numbers were low because he and Grossman made a deal to both get on the ballot by having both groups of delegates vote first for Grossman and then for Tolman on the 2nd ballot. Tolman got 28.4% on the second ballot.
Thought-provoking post, FrankSkef.
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If Patrick gets 55%, Reilly and Gabrielli probably both get their 15% (assuming Gabrielli gets his 500 signatures).
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If Patrick has 60%, still a good chance for both of them.
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If Patrick has 65%, starts to get dicey for one of the others to qualify.
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At 70.0001% for Patrick, somebody’s not makin’ it.
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For both not to make it, Patrick probably needs 75% or better — but is there any reason to believe he did that well?
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Prediction: Patrick 62%, Reilly 26%, Gabrielli bye-bye.
I was elated on caucus day, because Patrick’s roughly 2-to-1 win over Reilly that day meant he has a serious shot at 50%. But 75%? That would be quite a shock. Patrick will get somewhere in the 40-60 range, I suspect. If Gabrieli is in, it’s pretty likely nobody will get 50% on the first ballot, which is the only ballot that determines eligibility for the state primary ballot.
Ofer, you probably know this, but in case there are others who don’t, I’d like to amplify on your comment.
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It’s true that only candidates who get at least 15% on the first ballot will go on the primary list, but it’s possible there might be a second ballot if no one gets 50%+ on the first one. It will be a runoff between the top two vote-getters from the first ballot. Whoever gets 50%+ on either the first or (if needed) second ballot will get the Party’s endorsement. While some think that’s not worth much, it ain’t chopped liver, either.
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One point to keep in mind is that this structure will (intentionally) prevent the sort of game-playing that Sco described elsewhere, where a “deal” is made to behave one way on the first ballot and another way on the second. Anyone not getting 15% on the first ballot is gone — not in the primary. So, it’s entirely conceivable to me that two of the three participants (assuming Gabrieli is in) could be eliminated on the first round.
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In any case, I will make the bold prediction that our candidate [Patrick] will win on the first ballot.
there is no doubt in anyone’s mind that Deval Patrick will be the convention nominee, so let’s just take that off the table — it does make for a much less interesting convention but it is what it is. i also agree with whoever it was who said that of course Reilly has his 15% plus. I do think though that chris gabrieli is likely not to get his necessary 15% because i just don’t see the ground swell for him. the guy just isn’t that interesting and, as i have said before, a spite filled campaign this late in the game isn’t enough to take support away from Deval Patrick and Tom Reilly.
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I think if Gabrieli had gotten in when Tom and Deval started working — over a year ago — there would be a different story — but he didn’t and there isn’t.
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I agree with the person who said Deval 60+% for DP, 26+% for TR and good bye for Chris.
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To me that spells out — Chris don’t run, it will be the death knell to your career in politics.
“Frank” you know this is absurd. But thanks for the laugh. 🙂
Reilly picking a LG candidate who withdraws in less than 36 hours.
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A frat boy who accomplishes nothing in his life and becomes President of the US.
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A pro wrestler who is elected Governor.
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An actor being elected Governor.
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Yes, my speculation is absurd…but nothing is out of the relm on the possible in the world of politics.
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Hell last year at this time making a prediction that Patrick would get between 50 to 60 percent of the convention delegates would ahve been labeled absurd.
“Frank:” which U.S. President operated a gallows before he was elected. No cheating! Three guesses. (A hint: he hanged two men, and his Mom advised him to pull the lever himself, rather than paying someone $10 to do it for him).
…Andrew Jackson, then I thought of other folks who may have been in the position to hang folks like deserters and Grant came to mind and then I flashed to Washington in the French Indian War. Of by my criteria, Harrision and Tyler come to mind also. So my three guesses (honestly, no internet help) are: Washington, Jackson and Harrision.
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Now I should know better than to play Presidental Triva with an historian (or soon to be one) but I can’t help myself…so here are my two favorite ones. The easy one is which President was born Leslie King? Second, which member of the MASH cast was related to a Vice President?
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Lastly I can’t find the link, but didn’t you once accuse me of a non sequitur, or did I somehow miss the connection between the June Convention and Presidental gallow humor?
Bob’s?
I believe he was the first one in a movie,not sure about the hangings
There is a movie quetion in this thread?
you know I got MUD in my eye!!!!
Not likely that Reilly will cut his own throat to get Gabrielli on the primary ballot. But he could share enough delegates with him to give each of them 15%.
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It’s too early to tell if Gabrielli on the September ballot helps or hurts Reilly. Patrick has to play it straight either way. Keep and get as many delegates to make this a Patrick coronation, regardless of the other two candidates strategies.
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If one get’s knocked off in June, so be it. Both getting knocked off at the convention, will never happen.