Now, to the arguments I know will come:
(1) the “there are 40% undecided argument” … very true, but if you want to rely on Patrick winning the undecideds at a 70-30 clip, suit yourself, but thats not a position I would want to be in at this point
(2) the “Patrick will get a bounce from the convention” argument. Did it happen after the caucuses, which came in the wake of the worst month Reilly could have had (and therefore the best for Patrick)? Well, these three consecutive polls would say no.
(3)the “Patrick voters are more likely to come out and vote in the primary” argument. Otherwise known as the turnout strategy … I guess theres nothing to say it couldn’t happen, but then again, the Celts could win the NBA title and I could win the lottery.
Is the TRENDS. The poll you linked to didn’t have any trends, so I don’t know waht (if any) previous Merrimack polls said, but I know that Patrick’s deficit in the Globe poll had been substantially reduced since the last Globe poll. At this point in the race, the direction in which candidates are moving is more important than where they are, and Patrick’s numbers have been increasing.
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As to your third point, it’s hardly a speculative or unprovable possibility. Deval’s supporters do seem to be more passionate and dedicated than Reilly’s and Deval, as we saw in the caucuses, has an effecitve field strategy that will translate well to GOTV.
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I’m hardly unbiased here (I am a Patrick delegate to the convention), but I feel pretty good about Patrick’s upward movement in the polls. He has plenty of time to continue making up ground — and the convention IS a much larger media event than the caucuses.
I don’t have the links handy, but in the immediate aftermath of the St. Felur mess, many were ready to bury the AG. In consecutive polls, Deval Patrick gained on him, even tying him in a poll by the (“establishment”) Boston Globe. Heck, I even went so far as to wonder if a new equilbrium had been created. So when I say three polls is a trend, I mean it not only for the AG’s success, but I also mean thats its 3 polls in a row where Deval Patrick has fallen from his early February/caucus highwater mark. Patrick may be trending upward in recognition (although being unknow by 50% isn’t anything to brag about) and other categories, but until that translates into support its only “ifs and buts” … and if they were candy and nuts, well, you get the drift.
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Personally, and I have not gone through the numbers to try and prove this empirically, I think its a combination of AG Reilly righting his ship and the post-caucus buzz Patrick created fading.
But right now, they’re essentially meaningless. Plus, after the St. Fluer debacle, Patrick did get a big bounce – and tied up the race.
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Right now, Patrick and Reilly have both taken slight to moderate hits because Gabrieli just pumped in 2.2 million for commercials in May. He may not even get 15% of the delegates and could be a nonfactor.
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Polls can be helpful, but they’re more fearmongering than anything. Take them with a grain of salt and try not to spread doomsday messages using any polls taken in May. The only polls that are a huge problem are the ones in September… and even then, take them with a grain of salt.
what is going on in your community. Therefore…
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I’ll speak to my own experience – while collecting signatures for Deval Patrick many people told me they were waiting for debates to happen between Reilly and Patrick to find out more about Patrick. The people I spoke to had open minds and I did not meet one person whose support I would characterize as firm for either man. I stood out in a public area for an hour and a half.
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Then I joined with a group collecting signatures a few days later(all of this occurred this past Friday and Sunday). Again, no visible firm support. More than a few worried looks from Repugs, but that is for another post.
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This was not the first time I had collected signatures, or knocked on a door, or phone banked. I’ve done stuff like this since 1980. If I debriefed every time after I had done something like this I always had a sense how things were going for the candidate I was volunteering for.
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This time, at this place(my own little corner of the world)I would say it is very fluid
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Just my 2 cents
Ben, I am sure you are a member of what we like to call “The Reilly Youth.” Unflinching, unthinking loyalty has, I suppose, its virtues. Your comments don’t even carry the petina of balance. What an apparatchik!
I don’t agree with the pro-Reilly sentiment behind this post, but that does not mean that Ben is “unthinking”. As much as I would love to see everyone become a Patrick supporter, there are Reilly supporters out there who have reasons for supporting their candidate and are not just doing it just because they’ve been branwashed. Most of Ben’s comments that I’ve seen (even when I disagree with them) seem well-reasoned.
My comment is based upon a review of all things written by “Ben.” My point is that he isn’t reasoning at all but rationalizing. Everything comes out Reilly. Tom would be much better off if he could brook some dissent, voices that, while supporting him, play the devil’s advocate, the so-called fly in the ointment. Tom is known to view such persons as disloyal and discards them, much to his detriment I might add. “The Reilly Youth” is an insider Democratic Party term. You can’t even get into a decent conversation with these people without them getting all pissed off if you’re saying anything even perceived as negative toward the boss. It’s not healthy, man.
“dude,” I’ve disagreed with the AG in the past on specific issues, just like some of the Patrick supporters here have disagreed with actions or statements of their candidate. I think thats the nature of all this, some disagreement, some defense, all in good spirit. All working (til November) to win back the corner office and help get our 1/50 of this country back on the right track.
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As for being discarded, I think you have to be in, to be tossed out. So I guess I don’t qualify and I guess that means I’m healthy. All is well.
Hey welcome to the site upfront, glad to see you making your first two posts on this diary. Do you always introduce yourself to a community by attacking people?
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But I guess you know more about this subject, because your an “insider”.
First, are the responses weighted? I ask because women are over-represented in the poll: about 63% of respondents. This may skew the results, since women overwhelmingly favor Reilly (Note: this is now the third poll in a row that shows Patrick either winning or near-winning the male vote, but getting absolutely pummelled in the female vote.)
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Second, another thing I find odd is that in both the Dems matchups vs. Healey, the vote of different income levels is exactly OPPOSITE of what you’d expect. As income RISES, people are MORE likely to vote for the Democrat. That seems very odd.
As income rises, people are more likely to vote Republican. However, as education levels rise, they’re more likely to vote Democrat. What you have now are two very loose correllations that aren’t as defined as they were maybe 20-30 years ago.
For what it’s worth, this is the latest from Rasmussen:
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Massachusetts Governor:
Mihos (I) Enters Race, Dems Lead
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March 13, 2006–With the announcement by businessman Christy P. Mihos that he will vie for the job of Massachusetts governor as an Independent, a curve ball has been tossed into the race. But, even with the new candidate line-up, the Democratic candidates still lead.
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In a prospective three-way match-up, Democratic Attorney General Thomas F. Reilly leads with 38% support from likely voters versus Republican Lieutenant Governor Kerry Healey’s 27% and Mihos’s 19%. Seventeen percent (17%) are Not Sure.
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When lawyer Deval L. Patrick is the Democrat in the match-up, he too earns 38% support from likely voters. Healey gets 25%, Mihos 17%, and 20% are Not Sure.
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So far Reilly is taking the greatest hit from the Mihos candidacy and other news of the past month. Our pre-Mihos survey showed Reilly leading Healey 49% to 27%, and Patrick leading Healey 41% to 31%.
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Reilly is viewed favorably by 47%, unfavorably by 42%. Patrick is viewed favorably by 44%, unfavorably by 28%, with 28% having no opinion. Healey is viewed favorably by 47%, unfavorably by 40%.
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About a third of respondents, 34%, don’t know Mihos well enough to give an opinion, but 36% view him favorably and 31% unfavorably.
Did anyone notice the gay marriage numbers?
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57%
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WOW – in a good way “wow”
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