So, there’s speculation here and apparently elsewhere that Gabrieli’s run has an outside chance of keeping Tom Reilly off the ballot entirely, by depriving him of the 15% of delegates at the convention. Well, that would be shocking, but if Gabrieli’s self-commissioned survey is accurate, you can at least imagine the scenario:
Gabrieli, the party’s nominee for lieutenant governor in 2002, said yesterday that he is encouraged by a survey he commissioned. The poll indicates that about a third of the convention delegates elected at caucuses in February are uncommitted to other candidates, Gabrieli said.
If he can secure the signatures of 500 convention delegates, he will need support from 15 percent of the projected 5,300 party activists who will gather in Worcester June 2-3 to qualify for the primary ballot.
The survey of about 2,000 delegates suggests that Deval Patrick has a 3-to-1 lead over Attorney General Thomas F. Reilly, according to Gabrieli adviser Joe Ganley. Reilly was slightly above the 15 percent mark, and Patrick was just below the 50 percent needed for the convention endorsement, Ganley said.
My emphasis above.
Reilly just above 15%? I tend to doubt that, but if nothing else, this may scare the Reilly folks into really hustling for their delegates among the undecideds, which may be a useful discipline for a campaign that will need volunteer enthusiasm and muscle should their candidate win the party’s nomination.
And this may post-hoc increase the profile of the caucuses, which the press, public, and even campaigns seem to dismiss as inside baseball. Of course, they are; but that doesn’t mean they don’t matter at all.
In any event, here’s the nutshell quote from Patrick campaign manager John Walsh:
”Counting delegates is like holding Jell-O in your hands,” Walsh said.
So, you might say that the situation is still fluid, and that Patrick’s support has yet to gel. Or that Reilly’s still got some wiggle room to get his 15%.
Will Gab500 siphon off delegates who would have otherwise supported Reilly or otherwise supported Patrick?
<
p>
I’d bet more the former than the latter. It seems to me that Patrick secured folks in groups, who are less likely to defect because the rest of the group will be dissapointed. Reilly, on the other hand, may have a chunk of delegates who aren’t committed to each other, and therefore won’t feel as much social pressure from peers to hold steadfast.
<
p>
The next question is: is it good for Patrick if Gab500 makes it on the ballot at the expense of Reilly? How about if Gab500 and Reilly make it on? Hmmm…..
Plus, there’s always room for Jell-O shooters.
The idea that Reilly, the clear front runner and sitting Attorney General, will not get 15% of the delegates at the State Democratic Party convention is just raving by people with more time than common sense — or their own speculative agendas. There is an interesting article on 9-11 conspiracies in this week’s New York magazine if this variety of far out speculation appeals to one.
Where are your numbers?
even Reilly can’t confirm he has 15%, and all the anecdotal evidence is discouraging. If Patrick has 70%, which is not out of the realm of possibility, then the two others are fighting for 30, and it’s down to the wire, friends. Gabrieli might emerge as the viable alternative to Patrick for some folks, and someone not connected to any of the gov campaigns, but with a statewide officeholder told me that Gab was getting his convention signatures from largely Reilly delegates. It’s hard to be the frontrunner for the prom queen title if you first don’t get a date.
but in addition to the numbers being potentially problematic for Reilly (depending on how many delegates Patrick really has sewn up), a friend of mine who regularly talks to people with way more knowledge about what’s really going on than both of us put together thinks that one of the candidates getting shut out is a real possibility, and that it’s not clear who it will be. Now, that’s hearsay on hearsay evidence I just gave you, and doubly anonymous as well – but at least it’s something!
I’ll use your comment for “entertainment” only, and not as the basis for an actual cash wager. (I love that line.)
I posted about this earlier this evening. Gabrieli’s making a hard drive for everyone he didn’t contact via the survey as evidenced by the “please let me on the ballot” letter we got in the mail as delegates. Anyone else get this? It’s posted up on his web site as well.
We both got onr. It went directly into the trash!
I am a delegate from Waltham, but have not as of yet recieved a Gab 500 letter. I would likely send mine directly to the circular file as well.
I dropped it in the trash too. I don’t think a candidate should be able to skip out on the hard work of organizing support.
<
p>
And the idea that “oh, I just now decided to run”…well, maybe if you want to be governor you should have prepared to make up your mind sooner.
Would it be illegal/unethical/immoral to use a white sticker to change the To:address and therefore be able to reuse the stamp? I mean, waste not, want not, right?
maybe i should hold out for the signature payment