p>
The main reason Reilly has been able to raise money and attract support from the Democratic political establishment has been his supposed electability. For Dems who more than anything want to (a) win, and (b) be with the winner, Reilly is looking less and less like a good bet.
<
p>
If this poll doesn’t turn out to be an outlier, Reilly may not get his 15%. If he doesn’t, Gabrielli will.
<
p>
It’s time for Reilly to start spending money to boost his favorability. Too many more polls like this and he’s finished — in June, not September.
My personal experience (I know, it’s impossible to have impersonal experience) tells me that polls are trailing indicators of public sentiment.
<
p>
Opinion leaders (such as those reading this post) are way ahead of the curve.
<
p>
My point is that it’s been obvious (to me, at least) for quite some time now that Reilly’s star has begun to wane. Around here (Berkshire County), he never did have his 15%. I wonder if he does statewide. With Gabrieli in the race, my guess is that most Patrick supporters will stay firm, and he [DLP] will win on the first ballot. The question is whether there will be 30%+ to split amongst the other two candidates. If not, then only one of them will emerge from the Convention. At this point, I would have to say my money is on Gabrieli, if I had to choose.
smart-sexy-&-liberalsays
So lets not forget that Reilly and Patrick have had numbers like this of awhile. The real reason people have looked at Reilly for his “electability” is because despite all of his F-ups he hasn’t been hurt badly in the polls. Non-activist voters still recognize his name more than Patrick’s. Which is a problem that the Patrick campaign needs to overcome in someway or another. Maybe through a media campaign?
<
p>
Gabrielli took alot of the undecideds, but I don’t think there is enough evidence to say that he is stealing votes from Reilly.
<
p>
But, we shall see. One thing that bothers me about Gabrielli is that he can just pay people to collect signatures for him. And though it is great that he has all this money, I don’t have as much respect for him because of it.
If you compare this poll to the last SurveyUSA poll done in the beginning of March, the effect of Gabrieli’s entering the race becomes clearer.
<
p>
Reilly’s support decreases significantly or stays the same in every demographic group but one. Patrick’s support actually increased measurably among some of those same groups.
<
p>
So, yes, the end result is that the poll is within the margin of error, but the internals and trends tell the story that Patrick is in much better shape than Reilly at this point.
<
p>
But it’s early. Anything can happen between now and September. The way this race is going it feels like anything can happen between now and next week.
p>
I agree with what you say, but my point is that one of the things almost certain to happen between now and September is that one or both of Patrick’s challengers will not be on the ballot. So, in my view, a 3-way race just ain’t gonna happen.
<
p>
SS&L makes a good point about Gabrieli buying signatures. His track record of buying votes isn’t such a good one. Patrick has been tirelessly crisscrossing the state for a year now, making connections at the grassroots level. His campaign staff is dedicated and unbelievably energetic. John Walsh has probably put more miles on his car than has his candidate, and that’s a lot!
<
p>
This campaign will not be won with a media blitz in August. The field operation that Patrick has put together (with, I might add with great immodesty, help from groups like PDM, of which I am an active member) is going to have a huge impact on the way this race is run. Most of the activists I know around here (in the Berkshires) are already working for Patrick. I don’t know where Gabrieli is going to get volunteers from. I’m sure there are some out there, but, boy, have we got a head start!
Of course, in light of my comments, another way to look at this poll is:
<
p>
Patrick 36%
anti-Patrick 52%
smart-sexy-&-liberalsays
So lets not forget that Reilly and Patrick have had numbers like this of awhile. The real reason people have looked at Reilly for his “electability” is because despite all of his F-ups he hasn’t been hurt badly in the polls. Non-activist voters still recognize his name more than Patrick’s. Which is a problem that the Patrick campaign needs to overcome in someway or another. Maybe through a media campaign?
<
p>
Gabrielli took alot of the undecideds, but I don’t think there is enough evidence to say that he is stealing votes from Reilly.
<
p>
But, we shall see. One thing that bothers me about Gabrielli is that he can just pay people to collect signatures for him. And though it is great that he has all this money, I don’t have as much respect for him because of it.
publius says
This will hurt Reilly at the convention. A lot.
<
p>
The main reason Reilly has been able to raise money and attract support from the Democratic political establishment has been his supposed electability. For Dems who more than anything want to (a) win, and (b) be with the winner, Reilly is looking less and less like a good bet.
<
p>
If this poll doesn’t turn out to be an outlier, Reilly may not get his 15%. If he doesn’t, Gabrielli will.
<
p>
It’s time for Reilly to start spending money to boost his favorability. Too many more polls like this and he’s finished — in June, not September.
michael-forbes-wilcox says
My personal experience (I know, it’s impossible to have impersonal experience) tells me that polls are trailing indicators of public sentiment.
<
p>
Opinion leaders (such as those reading this post) are way ahead of the curve.
<
p>
My point is that it’s been obvious (to me, at least) for quite some time now that Reilly’s star has begun to wane. Around here (Berkshire County), he never did have his 15%. I wonder if he does statewide. With Gabrieli in the race, my guess is that most Patrick supporters will stay firm, and he [DLP] will win on the first ballot. The question is whether there will be 30%+ to split amongst the other two candidates. If not, then only one of them will emerge from the Convention. At this point, I would have to say my money is on Gabrieli, if I had to choose.
smart-sexy-&-liberal says
So lets not forget that Reilly and Patrick have had numbers like this of awhile. The real reason people have looked at Reilly for his “electability” is because despite all of his F-ups he hasn’t been hurt badly in the polls. Non-activist voters still recognize his name more than Patrick’s. Which is a problem that the Patrick campaign needs to overcome in someway or another. Maybe through a media campaign?
<
p>
Gabrielli took alot of the undecideds, but I don’t think there is enough evidence to say that he is stealing votes from Reilly.
<
p>
But, we shall see. One thing that bothers me about Gabrielli is that he can just pay people to collect signatures for him. And though it is great that he has all this money, I don’t have as much respect for him because of it.
sco says
If you compare this poll to the last SurveyUSA poll done in the beginning of March, the effect of Gabrieli’s entering the race becomes clearer.
<
p>
Reilly’s support decreases significantly or stays the same in every demographic group but one. Patrick’s support actually increased measurably among some of those same groups.
<
p>
So, yes, the end result is that the poll is within the margin of error, but the internals and trends tell the story that Patrick is in much better shape than Reilly at this point.
<
p>
But it’s early. Anything can happen between now and September. The way this race is going it feels like anything can happen between now and next week.
michael-forbes-wilcox says
Sco,
<
p>
I agree with what you say, but my point is that one of the things almost certain to happen between now and September is that one or both of Patrick’s challengers will not be on the ballot. So, in my view, a 3-way race just ain’t gonna happen.
<
p>
SS&L makes a good point about Gabrieli buying signatures. His track record of buying votes isn’t such a good one. Patrick has been tirelessly crisscrossing the state for a year now, making connections at the grassroots level. His campaign staff is dedicated and unbelievably energetic. John Walsh has probably put more miles on his car than has his candidate, and that’s a lot!
<
p>
This campaign will not be won with a media blitz in August. The field operation that Patrick has put together (with, I might add with great immodesty, help from groups like PDM, of which I am an active member) is going to have a huge impact on the way this race is run. Most of the activists I know around here (in the Berkshires) are already working for Patrick. I don’t know where Gabrieli is going to get volunteers from. I’m sure there are some out there, but, boy, have we got a head start!
michael-forbes-wilcox says
Of course, in light of my comments, another way to look at this poll is:
<
p>
Patrick 36%
anti-Patrick 52%
smart-sexy-&-liberal says
So lets not forget that Reilly and Patrick have had numbers like this of awhile. The real reason people have looked at Reilly for his “electability” is because despite all of his F-ups he hasn’t been hurt badly in the polls. Non-activist voters still recognize his name more than Patrick’s. Which is a problem that the Patrick campaign needs to overcome in someway or another. Maybe through a media campaign?
<
p>
Gabrielli took alot of the undecideds, but I don’t think there is enough evidence to say that he is stealing votes from Reilly.
<
p>
But, we shall see. One thing that bothers me about Gabrielli is that he can just pay people to collect signatures for him. And though it is great that he has all this money, I don’t have as much respect for him because of it.