It’s true that Gabrieli is not well known at the moment. But that will change when he hits the airwaves in a big way. His first ads are a bit bland, but establish him as an intelligent, and calm-but-assertive presence, less the soft-spoken nerd some perceive him as. In debates, especially if the two short guys go at each other, the 6’4″ Gabrieli could appear all the more statesmanlike in contrast. Future ads will get more substantive.
Reilly’s flaws have been discussed here. Patrick’s less so. Politically Deval seems vulnerable on two fronts. He’s to the left on some very prominent issues (gay marriage, tax rollback, driver’s licenses for undocumenteds) of the voters who have put Weld, Cellucci, and Romney in office. And then there’s his slightly smelly corporate background. Like most voters, I tend to respect successful businessmen. But Gabrieli has it all over Deval on this score. Deval, to generalize harshly, was a corporate lawyer who got a political appointment and cashed it into board positions for companies doing dubious things. Gabrieli built businesses and ran them. Huge difference. Those who call Gabrieli inexperienced ought to remember Romney’s victory. It wasn’t only that O’Brien handed him the race; those who voted for him also had to be comfortable with someone whose management experience was in the private sector.
The current perception of Deval’s strong position is based on the facts that he got out ahead of the caucuses while Reilly was making his infamous series of cock-ups. But this leading position is more perception-based and less grassroots than his supporters believe. True, Deval has a portion of the left wing locked up. But it’s a very limited base. A lot of Deval’s support comes from those for whom gay marriage is a top priority and those who are in love with the idea of a progressive and black governor. Other liberals, who have heard that Deval is the progressive choice in the race, are sway-able. A family member of mine (not a Gabrieli supporter) was present when Gabrieli recently visited a city health clinic; doctors there reconsidered their support for Deval after listening to Gabrieli on health care. His grasp of the concrete policy issues is deep and he’s a warm, if not inspirational, communicator.
The notion that because he has certain activists firmly in his camp, Patrick therefore has the strongest grassroots base scratches a particular sore spot of mine about current progressive culture. Single-issue activists and people who go to DFA meet-ups seem to think they have invented the concept of grassroots. They talk as if the ward committee members, precinct captains, government workers, and union members who have been beating the streets for decades somehow don’t count as grassroots. It’s an incredibly smug and insular mindset, reminiscent of college-age Greens.
Deval seems inexperienced and tentative. He continues to speak almost exclusively in generalized unifying rhetoric; when he’s asked about specifics, he seems to be speaking only to his quickly established base, giving no sense that he has a plan to win centrist Dems, let alone independents. His supporters seem to be living in a fantasy world at the moment, where his uplifting rhetoric and impressive life story somehow convince the majority of the electorate to become progressives. And that he’s going to do it with a serious financial handicap. C’mon now. Can someone outline a plausible winning scenario for Deval? To my mind he’s the only candidate in the race who could actually lose to Muffy.
Reilly may be a much bigger challenge for Gabrieli than Patrick. Reilly has money, establishment ties (in an establishment that, again, contrary to lefty conceit, has deep roots), and as a home-grown prosecutor has inherent appeal to many voters. I personally find him very appealing; he strikes me as both old-school Democrat tough and emotionally sincere. I also find his personal story more compelling than Patrick’s.
On the other hand, Reilly may well shoot himself in the foot again. And again, and again… I’m not sure voters will be comfortable with a passionate guy who screws up a lot. And his hacky image, while not a problem for me, turns off a lot of voters.
To sum up, in every area where Reilly and Patrick are vulnerable, Gabrieli is strong. TV ads will equalize the publicity gap. Plus, there’s a lot to like about his approach to governing and policy. …
Coming soon: Part II – why Gabrieli may be the best choice.
Gabrieli to me is a guy who looks at the substance of the issues and doesn’t just say yes or no to gain support. Like the Cape wind progect or the tax roll back, Gabrieli wants to do these things but with a certain plan that works. And if after looking at all the facts if its not achievable he is strong enough to say no and do whats best for Mass. This may seem like he is walking on the political line, but to me it’s just being practical. His policies on the issues seem to be on target with the voters more than any other candidate in the entire race. The only problem is his recognition amongst voters but that will change in the months ahead. Some also ague that he is much to bland but the debate showed he can still get his viewpoints outs in an assertive manner. I kind of like to think of him as a normal guy with not much flash seeing how Mass has had 16 years of flashy republicans with names like Weld, Cellucci, Swift and Romney. This guy will show his flash with results and thats what the voters really want. I’d rather have a nerd do my homework than the it girl event though she’s more interesting and I like her better, I also like results.
I can appreciate your points, but let me throw one back at you.
<
p>
I watched both the TV debate and listened to the candidate’s forum in Agawam. I initially started out knowing little about Gabrielli. His performance gave me more respect for him, and I like the ideas he brings to the table.
<
p>
But I honestly found him boring, and I think this state needs some excitement.
<
p>
I think we need a cheerleader, an evangelist, a motivator in the corner office right now. We need someone who makes us believe again.
<
p>
I’m from Springfield. When Deval Patrick said “we need to let the people of Springfield know that they DESERVE to be helped”, that spoke to my heart. It spoke a lot more than Gabrielli speaking of the state stepping up until the economy improves, and it spoke to me a lot more than Reilly saying that everyone needs more aid. Why? Because he cut right to the heart of the matter — living in Springfield is painful specifically because everyone feels that no one thinks we deserve to be helped.
<
p>
Deval Patrick has made me believe again. Not just because of policy, not because of politics, but because he has woven them all into an exciting package that has reached my needs.
For your heartfelt report from last night, NoPolitician. I’m hearing from a few people here that the power of Deval’s message has to be witnessed in person to be understood.
<
p>
To reverse my own formulation, one of Gabrieli’s biggest relative weaknesses – charisma – seems to be a great strength for Deval.
You have to admit at least that wasnt boring!!!
for your really positive comments about the other candidates, it will really help propel us to victory in the fall ….
<
p>
When Chris G. ran for Congress, he used to always talk about how good some of the other candidates were, that’s a better attitude ..
I did dwell a lot on criticizing Patrick. Part of the reason for that is my sense that he has enjoyed something of a honeymoon period and it’s time for a reality check as far as electability goes. Another is that I don’t have a problem with negative campaigning, by a candidate or his followers, as long as it’s not lies. As far as working as a team, a case could be made that some negative stuff in the primary race is necessary to dispense with the worst before the election. You’re right, of course, that Gabrieli is a particularly positive campaigner. That means it’s up to jerks like me to make sure his opponents don’t get a free ride on their flaws.
Gabrieli ran for LG and for Congress. He lost both times. What makes him more electable this time around? He is pretty well known since he ran for statewide office before, I do believe his poll numbers will go up in the future. And I do think he has some great policy initiatives. More, he’s funny and charming. But a winner? I’m not so sure.
But I think (hope?) in this race, he has a chance to stand out via the contrasts I mentioned in the post.
But offering wholly unfair and insulting comments like this:
<
p>
<
p>
isn’t going to get you or your candidate far. I do have a brain, thankyouverymuch, and I don’t live “in a fantasy world” at any given “moment” in my life. You aren’t doing your candidate one bit of good with stuff like this. Your criticism, save the wholesale insults, should be leveled at the opposing candidates, not their supporters.
for offending you. The wording was needlessly harsh. Still, I haven’t seen a strong case made for Patrick’s electability, beyond this charisma issue.
Okay. It appears you a true believer in your candidate, and that’s all well and good. But it’s like this: all the things you see in Chris Gabrieli are evident in Deval Patrick for the vast majority of his supporters. It’s fine if you think your guy is better, but you’ve not convinced me–and I’m a Patrick Delegate ignoring phone calls from Gabrieli’s campaign left and right–and you won’t.
I feel the most important issue to voters will be jobs and keeping people in our state. Mass does have healthcare problems like any other state however it is important to note Mass is the only state to have lost population. And we will keep hearing about that as the general election comes. Gabrieli just seems to have the track record of getting things done. We lose focus when we look at the persona of the candidate and not the track record first. All of our governors leave us before they get anything real done, and its obvious that voters are sick of candidates using the governors race to get out of the state like everyone else seems to be doing lately.
Others have lost population as well, especially NY.
I’m supposed to vote for Gabrieli because he’s 6’4″ ??
<
p>
I can’t believe you seriously even mentioned that. I’m going to have to ignore article when it comes to my opinion on Chris Gabrieli, because I don’t think his race should be harmed by a single supporter writing something so ignorant and … well… stupid.
<
p>
“Deval seems inexperienced and tentative. He continues to speak almost exclusively in generalized unifying rhetoric; when he’s asked about specifics, he seems to be speaking only to his quickly established base, giving no sense that he has a plan to win centrist Dems, let alone independents.”
<
p>
Clearly, you’ve never heard Deval Patrick speak. Much of his “quickly established base” are independents! His campaign is directly geared towards getting people who he says have “checked out” back into politics because it doesn’t have to be cynical. It doesn’t have to be everything – EVERYTHING – your peice suggests it is… one where the richest, and apparently tallest, candidate wins.
<
p>
Here’s a tip: voters will vote for the candidate who has the best ideas and the most charisma to make those ideas happen.
You’re right, height is an embarrassingly superficial notion. Probably could have been left out. But I do think physical appearance has a little effect on electability. In a picture from last weekend’s debate, the difference was not subtle but striking. Your larger point seems to be that even mentioning its effects gives it credence, and perpetuates it. And that the whole thrust of Deval’s campaign is to repudiate that level of politics, and to replace it with … charisma, that oh-so-substantive of qualities.
<
p>
As for Deval and independents, I guess I was thinking more about the libertarian types who don’t fit well with either party, rather than those who think politics has been too icky for them to touch in the last few years.
<
p>
Charisma is extremely important. How does George Bush win elections, though unpopular? Charisma. How does George Bush continue to gain huge support among the Republican members of Congress, despite Bush’s vast unpopularity? Charisma. People may not think he’s doing a good job, but people still follow the guy.
<
p>
It isn’t enough to be right on the issues. Being able to get those issues past is what’s essential – and charisma is half the battle.
<
p>
As far as physical appearance, does it effect elections? Of course it does. However, I’ve never seen anyone make a point in what is supposed to be an intelligent article, blog or other peice of writing, that a candidate is taller and therefore has a better chance to win. Let’s focus on real issues, please.
Being tall, or at least physically commanding in some way, can definitely help in politics. Looking good on TV, for example, is very important now. Having a good radio voice was important earlier in the century. Being a good public speaker with a loud voice was important in the nineteenth century — regardless of what one had to say. More generally, just calling your opponents “stupid” is hardly “intelligent” or an effective way to focus on “real issues.”
I’m with Deval Patrick for one and only one reason – he is the Democrat who is mostly likely to take back the Corner Office for the Dems. Reilly is bland and unappealing, and Gabrieli, while a heck of a nice nerdy guy, is really boring. Patrick is the one candidate in the race who really excites people. And I’m no DFA, Green guy in disguise – yellowdogdem describes me perfectly. Patrick is the only candidate who is trying to do what our last Democratic Governor, Mike Dukakis, did – build a strong field organization that can win. Deval has real supporters out on the streets meeting voters and getting signatures to put him on the ballot – while Gsbrieli is paying people $1 per signature because he has no groundswell of support, and he is desperately promising the sky to delegates so he can wind up on the ballot. To me, there is only one choice.
I am an uncommitted delegate and Chris called me and spoke with me for about 20 minutes. Did I miss some opportunity to ask for the sky? While I’d never blog about the conversation (I’ve had conversations with Reilly and Patrick also and I only blog about my impressions I have of them, but never specifics) Gabrieli did not promise a thing…so I’m curious what you mean by that statement.
<
p>
PS) I did not commit to Chris, but after thinking it over I think a guy of his caliber and committment to Democratic change desires a chance to be on the ballot. Anything else would be unDemocratic…with a capitial and a small d.
Charisma – it’s the one thing Patrick’s supporters really think is going to carry his candidacy. I wonder if enough people will feel the magic.
<
p>
Gabrieli will do his best to win the support of influential grassroots groups, but in the end, it’s true, his money is his power. If Patrick was not such a rich corporate dude himself I might feel guilty about that. We may have a nicely defined test of which is more powerful – TV ads or door-to-door. There’s only so many doors you can knock on…
<
p>
As for the general election, at that point does Patrick’s organization really do so much more than the party as a whole? And does what you say imply that these people in his field organization won’t go to work for Reilly or Gabrieli if they should beat him? That they won’t be able to motivate themselves to knock on doors for a Democrat, a liberal even, who doesn’t electrify them when he speaks? Not cool man.
Gabrieli addressed a DFA statewide meeting last year where about 50 organizers from around the state got together, and that was the first time I saw him speak in person. I agree that he’s very knowledgeable and experienced, and would probably do a good job. I still support Deval Patrick, for a number of reasons, not the least of which is that I think being an inspiring speaker who can talk about values is an important part of the Governor’s job.
<
p>
One thing I’ve wondered about ever since last summer when it seemed like we might have a 3 way race: Since we don’t have instant runoff voting, many votes for one candidate will come at the expense of votes for one of the other candidates. Which candidate will Gabrieli “split” more of the vote from? He’s considered very liberal and could appeal to the progressives who back Deval Patrick (though perhaps not as much to the independents and apolitical centrists who also tend to back Patrick), but my hunch has been that Gabrieli appeals more to potential Reilly voters.
<
p>
One of the things I get from reading your post is that yes, Gabrieli and Reilly do have some crossover appeal for each others’ supporters. I think you’re reinforcing my hunch. Need more data… đŸ™‚
As I stated above, I am offically uncommitted. But if it were a two way race between Reilly and Patrick–dispite concerns I have of Patrick’s electablity in November, I would have to vote for Deval at the convention and the primary. Heck, I’d jump on the bandwagon. Now I suspect you’re more right that Gabrieli will pull more votes from Reilly than Patrick, certainly among convention delegates. But I do think Gabrieli pulls primary voters from both sides.
<
p>
If the convention were today, I vote for Gabrieli because he desires to be on the ballot for Democratic primary voters to decide. I’d then have all summer to see if he has learned from past electoral runs. So far the jury is out, but there are signs that he’s learned somethings.
I think someone who is leaning Reilly is unlikely to end up with Patrick, and someone who is leaning Patrick is unlikely to end up with Reilly. There’s an oil-and-water thing going between the kind of people who instinctively gravitate to either of those candidates. Gabrieli, by this (admittedly oversimplified) logic, has the best chance of getting any given sway-able voter.
I ask these questions respectfully because I like Chris Gabrieli and had hoped to see him run again after 2002, but I am convinced this was not the race. (After two losses, I figure that he had one more shot too.)
<
p>
Why does Gabrieli want to be Governor now?
<
p>
Chris Gabrieli was the party’s candidate for LG in 2002. Many of the same challenges facing our state then still exist. It seems awfully late for a candidate with his experience to decide that he has been moved to run for Governor. Tom Reilly and Deval Patrick were willing to make a commitment to our state and to the Democratic Party over a year ago. Hell or high water, they were in. They felt it in their hearts and they did not wait to “size up the field.” As a Tom Reilly supporter, I respect that about Patrick and I imagine that many Patrick supporters may respect that about Reilly. I am not saying that Gabrieli doesn’t have a purpose, but his late arrival to the race was just plain strange.
<
p>
What, if anything, new does Gabrieli bring to the race?
<
p>
Again, I recognize that it is Gabrieli’s right to run, but this race already has two candidate’s who offer different visions. Gabrieli must believe that there is a gulf that he can fill between Reilly and Patrick, but I just don’t see it. I think Gabrieli’s strengths and weaknesses are already well represented by the two existing candidates. Granted, it is early (especially for Gabrieli), but the Democratic Primary has been defining itself for months. Maybe Gabrieli’s polling told him something I am not seeing or hearing, but I just don’t see his niche.
<
p>
I am passionate about the Reilly campaign, but I am even more passionate about democracy. More people should run and Gabrieli is a credible candidate. However, I think these questions are much more likely to be on pimary voters’ minds than the issues raised in your post. Gabrieli has a long way to go in order to answer them satisfactorily.
Why did he get in late? I don’t know, and I don’t really care. I like him better than the other two guys. I think he wants it for the same reasons they do. Being circumspect for a while doesn’t show a lack of heart, in my book.
<
p>
This notion that the primary has “defined itself” already and there’s no room for a third candidate – I don’t get it at all. There need not be a huge gulf to fill, for a guy to believe he’s the best choice for governor; and I think in fact there are some pretty big gaps left after you consider everything Reilly and Patrick have to offer. I covered some in the post and hope to get to more substantive things soon.
<
p>
I also disagree strongly that primary voters are going to be worried about why Gabrieli got in late, or what the point of having an alternative to Reilly and Patrick is. Partisans who have been thinking hard about the race for a year now may feel that way; but for most voters it’s only just beginning.
Right now, it looks to a lot of us that Gabrielli’s main reason for running is that he got shunned by Reilly for LG and never recovered. I’m not sure how a campaign that is perceived to be based on revenge will go over in the primaries. I agree, Gabrielli knows his stuff and impressed me at the debate. However, he doesn’t seem to distinguish himself much from Reilly or Patrick, and is trying to find a narrow middle ground. I’m not sure if that will hold in september or even at the convention. (Disclosure: I support Patrick)
I’ve been guilty of the same mistake of calling Chris Gabrieli a two-time loser. This is inaccurate and unfair. For elections where he ran as a stand alone candidate, his record is 1 for 2. He lost in the Democratic primary for Congress and won the Democratic (statewide)primary for LG. If you want to saddle him with Shanonn’s lose, go right ahead. I’m not sure how honest that would be, but at least give him an asterisk on that one.
He didn’t loose the general
What does that mean?
Active account in the Favor Bank, not so big on Ideas. To the unhappy people who drink Howie Carr’s Kool-Aid this is all a middle-aged Mass. Democrat can be.
it reminds me a lot of John Kerry in the presidential election process. Like Gabrielli, Kerry had a lot of his own money, a great organization and name value within the party, height, some appeal to undecided moderates, and flawed candidates. (I don’t want to rehash the 2004 primaries, but I’ll just leave it by saying that Kerry, with his strengths and weaknesses, won the primaries.)
<
p>
But we saw that Kerry’s strengths in the primaries did not translate into strengths in the general election. Being a policy wonk turned into the incomprehensible and contradictory soundbites that we heard on air. Being honest exposed warts even in the votes that he gave correctly. And the ability to win insider elections like the iowa primaries didn’t translate into national appeal. This should be a warning both to Gabrielli and to Deval Patrick, both of whom share parts of this description, though I think it fits Gabrielli more appropriately.
<
p>
Reilly’s political gaffes so far are really disconcerting especially because his career path has been built towards this moment for years, yet he seems so unprepared for a governatorial race. If he’s screwing up this part of the job, why should I believe that he’ll get it right when he actually has to make executive decisions? I think Reilly’s done a very good job as Attorney General, but I don’t think that those traits translate to being a good Governor.
<
p>
And the Governor’s office, like all major executive offices, requires someone who can be both the top ambassador and the executive decision-maker. Gabrielli hasn’t impressed me as our potential ambassador to the world compared to either Reilly, who seems like a steady hand, or Patrick, who is simply more charismatic and energetic. I do think that Gabrielli is probably strongest on the issues and he’s spent more time than the other candidates thinking about the actual role of the governor.
<
p>
It does also bother me that Gabrielli didn’t start campaigning until after every other governatorial and major Lt. Gov candidate. Throwing his hat in at the last minute seemed far more calculated than looking like he wanted this job more than anybody else.
<
p>
You also seem to be short-shrifting Patrick’s message in terms of the specifics that he has offered (his policy book is a decent start), in terms of his corporate and governmental experience, and in terms of his active outreach of primary delegates and voters. It’s not just that he reaches “Howard Dean” grassroots voters; he reaches new voters and delegates who have never “done” politics before. And in my area, the precinct captains and union members are part of the Patrick volunteer force. Who are the new voters that Reilly and Gabrielli are bringing out?
<
p>
Having been to the South Side of Chicago, which is easily their answer to Roxbury and Mattapan, his story means a lot more to me. I suppose that Patrick’s story might resonate less to those who’ve never been in the inner city, which is a weakness in a fairly segregated state like Massachusetts. (Heck, even in Boston, how many white voters have been to Mattapan?)
<
p>
If Patrick can be tied to Ameriquest, I think that could be a major problem. He hasn’t taken a stand in answering those questions very well and the full Ameriquest story could take corporate-fearing progressives away from Patrick. And both his tax return and his income tax stand could become the types of issues that don’t mean much substantively, but are politically dangerous. Even so, I’m not sure why this would make Deval, or really any of the Democrats, worse candidates than a do-nothing Lt. Governor like Kerry Healey who supported Romney for most of his term.
<
p>
I think it’s going to come down to who the electorate believes is going to provide jobs and affordable housing to the state. Given that Healey hasn’t done it in the last four years, it’s a matter of figuring which one of our three guys can do that best. I’m looking forward to seeing how Gabrielli pushes himself in that regard.
I don’t think what was done to Kerry nationally can be done in Mass. to Gabrieli. Kerry was legitimately vulnerable to being characterized as all ambition, changes of tack, double-speak etc. In Gabrieli’s business and nonprofit career, and in his political efforts, he has been quite consistent. He speaks directly on issues from a standpoint of pragmatic management informed by values that are liberal but not too liberal for the general electorate. The Republicans will be able to demonize Patrick much more easily for some of his positions, not to mention the evidence of opportunism in his career. Remember those suburbs that Romney surprisingly took from O’Brien? How does Patrick win places where majorities were willing to vote for Romney? And O’Brien had a strong field organization too.
<
p>
I think Patrick’s new voters, like the grassroots claim, is a bit exaggerated in its expected effects. Can we really count on Patrick to change the calculus of statewide politics through the force of his rhetoric? How many people can he bring in? If you want a liberal in the corner office, surely Gabrieli is a safer bet.
<
p>
Again with the late entry: I don’t need my candidate to want the job more than anybody else, just to be totally committed to winning it and then doing it. I wouldn’t be surprised if Reilly and Patrick wanted it more, on an emotional level – but there’s no way Gabrieli undertakes this without that commitment. The late entry will be forgotten.
<
p>
As for the personal story, Patrick’s is indeed impressive. You don’t get much tougher than the South Side. But Patrick has also traveled the golden road of prep/Ivy entitlement, become a corporate lawyer, and from that picture in the Globe a few weeks ago it looks like he’s clearcutting the top of a small mountain to build a monstrous second home. If you want to vote for an underdog who fought all the way up and knows how the average voter lives, Reilly’s your man.
<
p>
I don’t think Ameriquest scares only “corporate-fearing progressives” from Patrick. Lots of lefties are on board with him despite it – they’re willing to repress it (unless he decides to tack to the center after the convention – then they might have a traumatic recall, and woe unto him when they do). I’m not anti-corporation, but I am very much anti-predatory-lending.
<
p>
Listen, buddy, you need to get a handle on the Patrick-supporter-as-neurotic-dimwit gibberish quickly. Your posts are filled with this sort of paternalistic condescension and it’s growing tiresome.
<
p>
Patrick supporters are not neurotic people who need to “repress” anything. We are not mentally ill. We are not fools or idiots. We are not dimwitted or gullible.
<
p>
We are capable of reading and making informed decision. Imagine that!!
<
p>
You really need to get a grip.
<
p>
Your comments are increasingly offensive and counterproductive.
I really do feel bad that I’m offending you. But Patrick supporters have been riding so high since the caucuses, and are so passionate about him, that it’s hard not to poke a little fun. Since my candidate is perceived as a big underdog, I sort of take for granted the supporters of the front-runner will allow me some license to be snarky.
I like Chris and appreciate reading your thoughts on why you support him, but to me I see everything he has to offer being present in Deval, but nothing much more than that. Reilly has the experience in office, but is making a huge mistake running as a republican-lite when there’s already going to be 2 real republicans in the general. Chris and Deval both have the ideas and drive, but I don’t see any of the leadership skills Deval displays. He seems like a great guy but doesn’t seem like a governor. He’d probably be a great LG, and should have run (I’m leaning Silbert in that race, but Murray and Kelley seem great too – I know nearly nothing about Goldberg yet). I think both Chris and Deval would win the general (though Reilly would have trouble), but I think the charisma and leadership gap is the difference between a close victory from a decent campaign and the strong victory an inspired electrified electorate will give – its a bit like the difference between Al Gore and Bill Clinton. Gabrieli is some one I would support, but Patrick is some one I would be excited for.
Patrick certainly seems to be able to inspire people. But I think Gabrieli has a lot more experience in leadership across the board: management, strategy, growth, etc.
most people are going to start focusing on the governors race during and around the primary. So Gabrieli is in a tremendous position to peak during the primary and take the nomination. What Chris offers is the middle ground in between Patrick and Reilly.
Patrick will indeed make new voters but you must remember he looses the moderate dems and republicans who won’t come back to him in the general. Dems who supported Patrick will be more likely to vote for Gabrieli or Reilly because they are serious about getting republicans out after 16 years of them.
“Patrick will indeed make new voters but you must remember he looses the moderate dems and republicans who won’t come back to him in the general.”
<
p>
He “looses” the moderates? First, if you want to make political commentary, I suggest you learn how to spell “lose.” Secondly, what’s your base for such a remark? Seriously, if people are going to make such huge, sweeping pronouncements, let’s bring in a tad of evidence.
<
p>
For example, if you looked at who is supporting Deval Patrick, it isn’t just the ultra liberals of this state. There’s this whole misconception that progressives = ultra liberals: that’s completely untrue. Being progressive isn’t about policy issues, or at least it isn’t mainly about policy issues, it’s about the way of governing.
<
p>
The reality of the situation is a very large amount of moderates support – and have from the beginning – Deval Patrick. He wouldn’t be so high up in the polls right now if that weren’t true.
<
p>
Lastly, vote for WHO YOU WANT TO WIN – don’t vote for who you think would have the best chance. All three of these candidates can win; people may as well vote for the one they like best.
<
p>
Sorry to be rude, but this entire thread is very frustrating. /rant off
What Chris offers is the middle ground in between Patrick and Reilly. As an advocate for after school programs Gabrieli brings education to the table. Every democratic candidate for governor and lietenant governor to me seems to be in the race for change. They all are passionate about helping. Why he got in late is not an issue its just the same distractive type of politics the Reilly people are trying to with tax disclosure. Charisma is especially needed if the candidate doesn’t have a base but Gabrieli has one. Eventually the policy will get out and that will be the deciding part in voters minds.
What a cynical load of tripe this user post is. You’re actually knocking candidates for their height? Is this the type of support Chris Gabrieli wants from his operatives?
<
p>
I also met Chris Gabrieli at the statewide DFA meeting that Cos mentioned. At that time it was rumored he was going to run for governor. I thought he was very well spoken, and very personable. I thought he had some interesting ideas about making state government more efficient.
<
p>
But for whatever reason, he decided at that time not to run. My beef with Gabrieli has to do with timing. If he really wanted to run for governor, why didn’t he enter the race last May?
<
p>
To me, his late decision to run feels like one of two things: either the so-called Democratic establishment felt sucker-punched when Reilly got smoked in the caucuses and needed a do-over and Chris was the only guy ready to cut the big checks to get in the race so late, or Chris was mightily pissed about being passed over for the LG spot because Menino yanked Reilly’s strings to get him to choose St.Fleuriasco.
<
p>
I saw Chris at last months GLAD meeting and one of the reasons he mentioned to support his campaign was that after a costly primary, he’ll have plenty of money to self-fund his campaign. Chris said he’s, “lucky enough to have money to waste on elections.”
<
p>
And I thought this user post was cynical.
1, I’m not an operative, just a supporter. Not paid and never even met the man. 2, I’ll retract the height comment altogether since it upsets some people. Although a lot of people have no problem saying Gabrieli comes off like a “boring nerd.”
<
p>
Once again, the timing of Gabrieli’s entry is irrelevant. When people complain about this, it sounds like they’re just wishing he hadn’t entered, period, because he hurts their candidate and they have to rethink strategy.
<
p>
Who in their right mind would undertake a multi-million dollar governor’s campaign for the reasons you cited (an establishment’s behest, or revenge)??
<
p>
As to Gabrieli’s alleged comment about money, sounds to me like nothing more than honesty in a self-deprecating key.
I’m not an operative, just a supporter.
<
p>
Right. I might just buy that if your first BMG post didn’t read like a campaign press release pushing all of Gabrieli’s talking points.
<
p>
As to Gabrieli’s alleged comment about money,
<
p>
Alleged my ass. I was there taking notes. That is a direct quote.
<
p>
No worries though. For every piece of bulk mail sent to me that Gabrieli wastes his money on, it just makes me work harder for Deval Patrick.
<
p>
For free, by the way.
<
p>
after we communicate privately you’ll retract this accusation. Calling me a paid operative and a liar undermines my entire voice here at Blue Mass Group, right from the outset, by implying that I’m only here to do a job for one candidate. I fully intend to opine and report on a range of issues.
I at least will take you at your word. But even if you were a paid operative for Gabrieli, who cares. The issues under discussion can be raised and debated by anyone. And physical appearance, by the way, is VERY important for politicians, in my opinion at least: those who look good, speak well, and, for the past several decades at least, look good on camera, have an enormous advantage.
And have no intention of retracting anything. At no point in this discussion did I call you a liar. I did say you were an operative, and I stand by that and it is well known that Chris Gabrieli pays his volunteers. It’s also well known that Deval Patrick does not.
<
p>
I am as entitled to my opinion as anyone here at BMG is. You feel very free to make dismissive comments about Deval Patrick and his supporters — accusing us of “living in a fantasy world.” Well, welcome to reality-based commentary, Cannoneo. You will be judged by the quality of your comments, just as everyone here at BMG is. For some it’s a steep learning curve.
<
p>
If you take issue with my comments, then by all means respond, but let’s leave the hand wringing out.
You can’t credibly “stand by” a groundless accusation without offering some evidence for it, especially when I’ve e-mailed you offering to tell you anything you’d like to know about who I am.
<
p>
I’m going to leave it alone and hope that people recognize how unfair your comments are. Anyone with similar suspicions can e-mail me.
<
p>
I’m glad I got at least a couple of reasoned responses from Patrick supporters on this thread.
I don’t understand your desire to take this discussion back channel. Do you honestly think that anything you say in e-mail is any more credible, just because YOU say it is? I’m sorry but in the reality-based world, just because it’s in print does not make it so.
<
p>
As I’ve said, your comments are judged by their quality, but they are also judged in context.
<
p>
You show up out of nowhere on the most visited political blog in MA and your first post — your first comments of any kind read like a campaign press release complete with the standard anti-Reilly and anti-Patrick rhetoric. (Reilly is bungling and ineffectual – Deval is a L-I-B-E-R-A-L!!!)
<
p>
You just so happen to be championing a candidate who is right now in the middle of a all-out media blitz to poach* delegates away from candidates who have been in this race from the beginning. Sorry, but I don’t believe the timing on this is just coincidental.
<
p>
So take offense if you wish, but I honestly believe this is all a case of the pundit who doth protest too much.
<
p> *yes, I said poach and I mean it.
<
p>
From a letter I received yesterday from my State Senator, Robert Antonioni, paid for and authorized by the Gabrieli Committee:
<
p>
Whether you are supporting Chris, Tom Reilly, Deval Patrick, or whether you have not yet made up your mind, I think we can all agree that Chris deserves a spot on the ballot. Please join me by lending Chris your support on the first ballot at the Convention.
<
p>
Nice try Chris, but I, and the rest of the delegates in my delegation don’t plan on voting for anyone who isn’t presently Deval Patrick.
The point of the e-mail was that I could tell you stuff that is verifiable. But no matter – you’re obviously not interested.
<
p>
I don’t think my post read anything like a campaign press release – you’ll never hear Gabrieli bragging about his TV money or going negative on his rivals.
<
p>
And you’re right about my simplified negative caricatures. But I think, statewide, it’s what the biggest bloc of voters will perceive. This post was about electability.
<
p>
PS – thanks for the excerpt from Antonioni’s letter – glad to see he’s on board, and that Chris is leaving no stone unturned to get votes.
It’s not just about convincing the 25% of voters who really keep track of all the candidates. Governors also get votes from a lot of people who wake up in late October and discover that there’s an election. In that respect, I think something as superficial as height does matter. It’s not how I want it to be; it’s just the reality of the situation.
this is it, cannoneo! Talk about a trial by fire. This is the sort of vetting a speechwriter should get before the candidate goes public with comments.
<
p>
I liked your post, I think you hit some raw nerves, but that wouldn’t be the first post on this blog to strike up a firestorm.
<
p>
In terms of Chris as a policy wonk, you may want to think some about our past two Dem Presidents, Carter and Clinton. Both were huge policy wonks and both were micro-managers (neither Clinton nor Carter wanted a chief of staff when they began office!) The opposite extreme, of course, is someone like Reagan, who was hardly there for his presidency and for his own sake, that’s probably a good thing.
<
p>
At the state level, I think someone with a strong knowledge of the issues and operations of government will go a long way. But don’t discount the ability of a savvy leader to hire smart staff and policy leaders to fill the gaps. It’s been a while since we had a Dem in the corner office, and I wonder who would be pulled out of the non-profit and public sector to come back.
<
p>
Anyone who’s hung around Mass long enough will tell you that Gov. Dukakis had assembled a team of the best and the brightest. They haven’t gone very far, and they’re not much older.
<
p>
There’s a lot of strong institutional knowledge floating around this state for the right candidate to corral. It appears Deval has done just that.
how this
<
p>
<
p>
could be taken the wrong way…
<
p>
what I meant to say was a lot of Gov. Dukakis’s talented aides and lieutenants are still around Mass. and far from retirement!
<
p>
(early morning posts can be dangerous!)
But I sort of wish I hadn’t opened with the electability angle – it necessarily brings in realities that some people find intolerably cynical. However, I think electability has to be established, especially against this misperception of Gabrieli as a long-shot third candidate, before substance can be addressed.
<
p>
And some of the more intense responses suggest a real anxiety about Gabrieli’s presence in the race.
<
p>
I think Gabrieli is a great combination of policy wonk and manager. He couldn’t have done so well in business and nonprofit without knowing how to assemble a great team and delegate. But importantly, he will also be engaged with that team on the details of the stuff they work out.
IMHO – with this run – Gabrielli is burning the bridge to any future chance he has of statewide office by getting into this race so late and appearing to bend the rules to do so.
<
p>
One question is, does his jumping in to the race now prevent Reilly from getting even 15% at the convention – and is this what Gabrielli wants all along?
<
p>
I and many others see his run as simply something he’s doing to hurt Reilly.
<
p>
Hopefully, Deval’s people will count the votes ahead of time to assure both candidates get JUST their 15% and they can take each other’s votes in September where Deval wins the primary. Easily.
<
p>
And Gabrielli can kiss goodbye any future chance at statewide political office. IMHO.
<
p>
I’d feel differently if he had jumped in the race last year.
<
p>
And I’m sure he IS a good guy like you all say.
<
p>
They all are.
<
p>
People like Deval, including centrists and even some on the right – in part because he has a BACKBONE and tells you what he thinks and what he’s gonna do and speaks to the HEARTS of many people.
<
p>
Do any of you think that some of the establishment folks fear Deval because he’s NOT one of the good old boys? And if he wins this year, he might cruise to re-election in four years, and 2 years later – what if Teddy doesn’t run again? This is what I think has the establishment (Meehan, others) supporting anybody BUT Deval. Deval could walk right into Teddy’s seat at that point. Marty Meehan and his $4 million be damned.
<
p>
PS – in case you could not read between the lines, I’m a Deval supporter.
<
p>
people really think Chris Gabrieli – who they admit is a nice, intelligent guy – would run for governor out of spite. Really, I hate to do amateur psychoanalysis, but only fear and resentment toward Gabrieli’s candidacy could produce such a belief.
<
p>
Would Reilly failing to get on the ballot help Gabrieli? Probably – it would help him to win the governor’s race, not to punish Reilly for some personal reason. But Gabrieli’s people don’t really expect that to happen. Their goal is to get 15%, period.
<
p>
I respect the facts that Deval is publicly stating liberal ideas, and that he has moved people to be passionate about politics. But I think his supporters are vastly overrating his lead in the primary and his capacity to beat Healey.
It seems pretty clear that, had the discussions between them gone differently, Gabrieli would be Reilly’s “running mate,” himself running for Lt. Gov. Instead, Reilly blows him off, picks St. Fleur, and suddenly Gabrieli is a Governor candidate. It’s awfully hard not to see a connection there. I’m not saying that somehow disqualifies him – if you’ve read my write-up of our conversation with him, you know that I thought he had a lot of good things to say. Still…
<
p>
And as for his people’s “goal” being “to get 15%, period,” nonsense. The “goal” is to get as many delegates as they can, so that they can be absolutely sure to clear 15%. You think they’ll stop making calls and running ads once they’ve got 15% signed up? Of course not – they’d be crazy to, because anything can happen at the convention.
<
p>
Push for your guy, by all means. But don’t overlook reality while doing it!
I meant that his goal is to get on the ballot, not to punish O’Reilly. The way to do that, as you point out, is to get as many delegate votes as possible.
<
p>
If Gabrieli was considering running for LG with Reilly, and when that didn’t pan out, decided to go for the top job, I’m fine with that. I don’t need my candidate to have had a revelation a year ago that he was destined to be governor in 2006, and nothing else would do. That doesn’t mean he’s running to get back at Reilly. I find that preposterous.
His greatest liability IMO is the back door slight of hand way he entered the race in the first place. If he had announced at the same time as Deval and Reilly I might even be a supporter, Ive always been a big Gabrielli fan. But the way he kept flip flopping for three weeks first saying “making the race more crowded is bad” then saying “I like what Deval has to say, leaning towards him” then going in a complete reverse saying “Ive been getting calls that people want me to run and I am taking them seriously” all of that stuff plus the alleged rules bending to even get him on the convention ballot all show me a crass insiders approach to politics that is very juvenille especially after he was not considered for LG showing that this is indeed a grudge match against Reilly.4a7d3d609129a9296bf7ac0608c2097
<
p>
I dont particularly like it when politics become personal or when the Mass DNC is basically picking Gabrielli to be the insiders outsider since their all paranoid of Deval.
<
p>
Also he doesnt seem to be interesting or compelling, he seems to lack a spine, and while I do think he is actually the most qualified to be Governor there is honestly no reason for him to be in this race other than what it seems to me is his own quest to satisfy his ego and have some fun with his surplus millionaires cash.
<
p>
Devals biggest weakeness is that he is not well known in state, he hasnt gone into specifics, and he has taken the wrong position on the liscenses which could be a huge issue since he needs to get the law and order vote that Reilly and Healy could easily pick up.
I just don’t think the way Gabrieli got in will matter to the vast majority of primary voters.
<
p>
Calling Gabrieli circumspect might be justified, but “spineless” is off the mark. Why would he even bother to maintain liberal positions all these years if he had no core values and no willingness to advance them? And the fact that he is “the most qualified to be governor” sounds like a pretty good reason to run, and for Democrats to support him.
Just to set the record straight, Gabrieli did win the Lt. Gov. primary 4 years ago, but he was teamed with Shannon O’Brien at the time. Gabrieli had little to offer the field operation at that time except for money. Does anyone really think he would have won the primary 4 years ago without O’Brien’s support and campaign organization?
He was up against Lois Pines and John Slattery, and he already had the 1998 experience under his belt.
think he absolutely would have won the primary. With Shannons support he did not have to spend as much money to win the primary as he would have without her support.
This is quite a discussion. And really interesting. A trial by fire, indeed, for our Cannoneo, but that’s what we want: fired-up people (although no personal attacks: they don’t help our cause, which is building a tough and effective reality-based progressive voice).
This campaign isn’t about the past several months or how a candidate got into the race, or who screwed up choosing an LG or any other process issue. It’s about the future. It’s about who has a way to move Massachusetts forward boldly into the 21st century and who will talk candidly about the issues. I think all three Democrats will do very well in the general election and all have great public service records. I think all are genuinely concerned for the welfare of the state and its citizens.
<
p>
So who has the best vision? Gabrieli has great policy initiatives, but Deval Patrick came out with similar policy months ago. Gabrieli is hesitant to give drivers licenses to immigrants who just want a better life. Gabrieli has a slick campaign website and good politicos behind him, but Deval Patrick has true grassroots support throughout this state. Deval is the only candidate to support Cape Wind. He’s the only one to even mention environmental justice in his environmental plan. He already has six policy proposals out. He’s the only one with experience in the Clinton Administration, two major Fortune 500 companies, and the non-profit sector. Patrick is the only one to link up the poverty we saw during Katrina with the poverty that plagues us here at home.
<
p>
Gabrieli is good, Reilly is good, but only Patrick articulates a broad vision for Massachusetts that springs from his own struggle to make it in America. He’s the only one I’ve seen reengage college students across the state in the civic process. You can probably hear all this in the Patrick “talking points,” but I’m no operative, just a guy in college trying to get engaged.
<
p>
Cannoneo, I want to thank you for your diligence and your post because up until this point, I haven’t heard anybody as passionate about Gabrieli as you are. I’m glad you’re out there. But I’ve gotta say Patrick has inspired me, probably as Gabrieli has inspired you. I’ve never followed a race as closely as I’ve followed this one. To say that Deval is either inexperienced or tentative is just not to pay attention.
for this passionate and substantive argument for Patrick.
<
p>
Regarding him being “inexperienced and tentative,” I meant that he hasn’t yet moved to engage voters beyond his base. It seemed to me that he was riding high on the caucuses and poll #s, and on the love he gets from live audiences; but didn’t have a plan to win the majority of the state’s voters. Who went last time for MITT ROMNEY.
<
p>
People have made some clear objections to this perception, such as your point that Deval is bringing in many people who otherwise wouldn’t have voted, and that he has a strong field organization.
<
p>
Another objection is that Deval, far from being criticized, should be admired for not pandering or triangulating. I agree. But I don’t see how being openly at odds with the opinions of the majority of the state’s voters wins him the corner office. This is where charisma and the New Vision of governance come in – he changes people’s minds, and brings in new voters. I see this expectation as very very optimistic.
<
p>
I think Gabrieli would make a better governor, for reasons I’ll get into more. But the point of this post was that he is a more realistic option for winning back the governorship.
As someone who appeciates Chris Gabrieli’s thoughfulness, sincerety and accomplishments, I have to admit he lacks the fundamental attribute of successful candidate for a major public office: strong communication skills for the media age.
<
p>
My sense is that candidates who are weak communicators –like Mumbles Menino– only get to high office by slowly climbing the political ladder and building key alliances along the way that later deliver them votes. Often when such candidates come from successful private sector careers and have enough wealth to self-finance, they believe they can take a short cut to office (think Al Checchi, Mike Huffington, etc.).
<
p>
In Gabrieli’s case, his late entry also comes-off as a bit dillitentish and therefore unappealing, even though, IMHO, this is at all the case.
<
p>
Gabrieli would probably be a decent Governor with fresh perspectives on issues like education and job creation. Unfortunately, his communication skills are not what they need to be to win an election in today’s political evironment –especially so when entering a race so late.
I think Gabrieli is an excellent communicator and has his own brand of uplifting charisma. Granted, he’s no Deval Patrick on this score. But, frankly, plenty of swing voters are not the kind of people who respond to inspirational oratory.
<
p>
Also, I don’t think any Democrat should call Mayor Menino “mumbles,” the nickname invented for him by Howie Carr. Menino is a very good and very popular mayor.
<
p>
You’re right, someone as un-telegenic as Menino succeeds because of the local nature of city politics. But statewide candidates need those same alliances to win. Deval is building them through people who aren’t already strongly affiliated – I think they are less reliable than the people who will vote with the local person in their life (union president, neighborhood fixer, state agency boss etc.) who they see as most responsible for their well-being. Reilly will have lots of those, and Gabrieli is working hard to get them. It takes a combination of media popularity and these traditional grassroots to win a statewide election. Gabrieli will be strong in both areas.
Not to beat a dead horse, but the only brand of charisma that matters in a political contest is the one that appeals to the masses of voters, not your own personal brand.
<
p>
The bottom line is that Gabrieli starts out this race behind and needs to catch-up. Money certainly helps, but to get people’s attention, a candidate needs to powerfully distinguish himself from the pack every time he gets in front of a crowd or camera (sadly, being intelligent, honest, talented and correct on the issues isn’t enough).
<
p>
I think even an exceptional communicator would be challenged to overcome both Reilly’s establishment support and Patrick’s energized activist base. I do wish Gabrileli well, however; I think he’s eminently qualified.
Uplifting charisma is a stretch. I’ll say he’s positive and upbeat, but admit he’s no orator. His style speaks to me (I’m an academic), but I confess I’m in a small minority there.
<
p>
As for playing catch-up, I think recent polls and debate on these pages has clarified the extent to which Patrick vs. Gabrieli is a well-defined test of activist base vs. media resources. The former will win Patrick the convention, but the latter is a tool tailor-made for the primary and general election campaigns. If Gabrieli gets on the ballot, he will arguably have the upper hand from there on out.
You Say –
“But, frankly, plenty of swing voters are not the kind of people who respond to inspirational oratory. “
<
p>
Show me this statistic? This is crap. They REALLY respond to the guy who puts them to sleep or change the channel
<
p>
You Say –
“Deval is building them through people who aren’t already strongly affiliated – I think they are less reliable than the people who will vote with the local person in their life (union president, neighborhood fixer, state agency boss etc.) who they see as most responsible for their well-being.”
<
p>
Congressman Jim McGovern is not strongly affliliated. Ya, Right. As are the people at Neighbor2Neighbor. As is the SEIU (100 memeber union). You make it sound like Democrats are slighlty retarded and look to others to figure out who to vote for.
<
p>
You say:
“Gabrieli…..has his own brand of uplifting charisma”
<
p>
I say:
You could watch Gabrieli and save the $$ you spend on Ambien.
<
p>
I SAY:
You’re getting paid by Gabrielli – and you’re getting paid by the post.
<
p>
Chris must be worried very about even getting his 15%
<
p>
PS – I’m a Deval guy.
“I’m a Deval guy.”
<
p>
I SAY: I guessed that already when you said, “You’re getting paid by Gabrielli – and you’re getting paid by the post.”
<
p>
It’s too bad for the reasonable Deval supporters that the only people who make bad faith comments are fellow believers.
<
p>
I don’t think it’s “retarded” to vote for the person recommended to you by the most trusted person in your corner of the world. Politics will always work this way, because that’s how the world works.
<
p>
And of course I don’t have statistics on whether swing voters will respond to inspirational oratory. I fully acknowledge the subjective, speculative nature of much of my position. But if they’re the kind of people who have in the past responded to “I’m going to cut your taxes and throw more criminals in jail,” then Patrick’s oratory will have a lot of work to do.
<
p>
Of course I don’t mean that Deval has NO traditional support. But lots of people are making his case based on converting people – undecideds and non-voters – one at a time.
*SEIU – 1,100 MEMBER union
<
p>
Dave – can you get spell check here? đŸ™‚