WHY IS THE PATRICK CAMPAIGN WASTING ADDITIONAL RESOURCES LOOKING FOR MORE VOTES FOR A CONVENTION THEY ALREADY WON!???
The Patrick campaign has the convention won–and all they really need is to get 15% to get on the ballot. Why waste one more dollar trying to get more delegate support? What do they gain. I do not understand. Spend the time and money they are putting into hand delivering a letter to a useless person (that would be me) into fundraising or reaching out to primary voters.
This is a long example of poor allocation of resources that the Patrick campaign has been making for sometime. For example, I’m sure the campaign and supporters had a very inspiring time at Quincy Market a month or so ago. I’m sure it energized the troops and got everybody pumped up.
But for what? Getting out the vote in April? Gearing up for a convention they already won? Maybe it would not have been so bad, had the Patrick campaign not spent $45,000 on the rally. Now I’m sure many supporters will contend it was worth every penny. Well, we’ll see how you feel the weekend before the Primary when you realize that money could buy the campaign another 15 spots on the various local news outlets. Those 15 extra spots could have allowed the campaign reach thousands of undecided primary voters in a very close election…of well, but it was a great rally.
Sorry for the sarcasm. But my point is simple. Thinly financed campaigns must allocate just enough resources to safely make each threshold and no more. Than means getting 11,000 certified signatures and 20% of the convention delegates to safely get on the ballot. Then you spend every penny you have the week before the election on whatever your plan is–TV, GOTV, Phone Banks, whatever–and you only need 51% of the vote.
Aside from talking to the base and making them feel good, I do not understand the Patrick strategy and I’m open to being convinced.
The concept is simple. The more delegates Patrick gets to commit to him, the less go to other candidates. The Patrick campaign is hoping to knock either Reilly or Gabrieli off the ballot by assuring they won’t gain 15% of the delegates. I’m not sure, but Patrick could also gain the official convention endorsement if he wins a certain percentage of the delegates. This would certainly boost his public profile and his ability to fundraise.
…Patrick will gain the offical convention endorsement if he wins a certain percentage of the delegates. That percentage is 50.1%. By all accounts he has that. True he could be scrapping the uncommitted ups to deny Reilly or Gabrieli a spot on the ballot–so much for being an open process liberal–but squeezing another 100 or so delegates to boost his margin (like running up the score in a lopsided football game) will not increase his public profile or ability to fundraise.
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I just can see the press making a bigger deal out of getting 65% of the convention votes comapred to 60%. Nor can I see how a person would be motiviated to give mony to Patrick based on him getting 65% of the delegates vs 60% of the delegates.
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If the Patrick campaign wants to boost their public profile or increase fundraising (which they do) then do it DIRECTLY. Not indirectly by running up the convention vote.
It’s not assumed he has the 50%. That’s a hard figure to get, and as far as I know, they are not assuming it, and neither am I.
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And it will not be a paid campaign staffer. There’s not that many of those anyway. It will be a volunteer.
First, if Patrick crushes the other candidates, it will be a real media coup. A lot of people like Deval Patrick, but aren’t convinced he can win. What better way to show he can win than trouncing his opponents at the convention, perhaps even knocking one off the ballot?
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Secondly, Patrick’s whole campaign has been about the grassroots. It’s worked for him so far, why question it? Furthermore, I’d be less enthusiastic about him if he suddenly shifted course and decided to run a more traditional campaign – it would mean he cares less about people-powered politics, true grassroot efforts, and more about the powerful, special interests. No thanks.
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Don’t forget – there’s a reason why Deval Patrick enjoys the strong support he has from his base. If he shifts strategy, he could alienate that base. He needs to make them energized, not left out of the loop or unhappy with campaign tactics.
You wrote, “Patrick’s whole campaign has been about the grassroots. It’s worked for him so far, why question it?” We will see have the landscape is the day after the primary. Then we can annoint the “geniuses” (sp) or the “worrywarts”. Right now it’s all opinions.
He’s gone from having support from 1-5% of the population to being one of the two front-runners in this race. Why? Because he’s gone school to school, town to town, in a people-powered campaign. That’s why he’s doing well in this race so far, despite the fact that he could have the least name recognition of the three candidates. It isn’t easy matching Tom Reilly’s numbers when 95% of the population of Massachusetts knows Tom Reilly, but only 60% of the population has even heard of Deval.
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Like it or not, up until now, Deval’s grassroots campaign has been very successful. Am I saying he’s going to win the primary? No, it’s too close to call, but he’s run a damn good campaign – one that isn’t traditional, but far healthier for a democratic form of government.
WHY IS THE PATRICK CAMPAIGN WASTING ADDITIONAL RESOURCES LOOKING FOR MORE VOTES FOR A CONVENTION THEY ALREADY WON!???
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I don’t know Deval’s answer, but consider this:
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If Deval can lock up a few more delegates, it forces Gab and Reilly to spend even more resources chasing delegates. After all, they can’t afford to leave a stone unturned and end up with a few too few votes at the convention.
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So, maybe Deval has calculated that for every $1 that he spends locking up delegates, he forces Gab and Reilly to spend $1.50 or $2.00 chasing delegates. This way, whichever get through the convention are at a financial weakness to Deval, and Deval can outspend them up through the primary election, helping to make sure he’s the Dem on the ballot in November.
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I think he’s spending money courting Democrats both (a) to force the other guys to spend even more, and (b) to help make sure he’s got more volunteers to run grass-roots GOTV efforts for the primary.
If Patrick spent is entire $650,000 “warchest” forcing Reilly and Gabrieli to spent even $3 to every one that Patrick spends…Reilly would still have about 2.2 million left and Gabrieli would still have a gazillion left.
the only people who show up to the convention are the committed activists. the only people who show up to the primaries are the committed activists.
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it’s not a bad strategy. primaries are about your base, and if the convention proves your base is strong, that will carry you to the primary.
Remember Lois Pines? Remember Steve Pierce? It’s inside baseball, even to primary voters. There’s a huge difference between the people who show up to the convention and the people who vote in the primaries.
but while the endorsement itself is not the end, it could be indicative of a stronger grassroots network, which does translate to victory in 2006.
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and that requires door-knocking, even on Frank S’s door.
Pines ran for LG and Pierce was a Republican.
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And the difference may be much smaller this year, given the huge amount of first-timers (myself included) who are Deval Patrick delegates.
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Granted, there are all of the independents voters who get to vote in the open primaries. But I still think you are overstating your position.
1) Patrick needs the party’s endorsement more than the other candidates. He has the lowest name recognition, and having the party’s seal of approval on the ballot could be the boost that gets him the plurality in September. You seem to think he has this all sewn up, but with all the add-ons and elected officials, there is a risk he could lose. Imagine if he lost the endorsement even after everyone assumes he’s had it won for months. It would be a disaster.
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2) Gabrieli is taking away some of Patrick’s delegates. He’s on TV, he’s got a ton of cash, and he’s been doing a full-court press on convention delegates. Deval can’t match him dollar for dollar, but he can prove to skeptics that he has the volunteer base necessary to run a grassroots campaign. It may not convince you, but it may convince someone else that he’s for real.
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Also, these are not paid staffers doing this. They’re volunteers. This costs the campaign only as much as it costs to print out the materials. It’s no-lose, and good training for when the campaign starts up real voter-to-voter contact as the primary gets closer.
Before anyone criticizes Deval Patrick further, I’d like to know where the delegate count stands now – especially with add-ons thrown into the mix. Anyone have some solid numbers?
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For one thing, my assumption all along is that Chris Gabrieli is the only one who may or may not have 15% – that Reilly has a pretty good padding on that 15% number. Anyone know?
Honestly all of us are just guessing at the numbers at this point. No one know who will vote which way. “Committed” delegates have no legal responisibility (though I think have a moral responsibility) to vote for the candidate they ran for in the caucuses. Therefore putting effort in to securing as many votes as you can, even if everyone thinks you are going to win is not a bad idea.
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Really after the caucuses the presure is on Patrick. Now, the expectation is so high for his performance at the convention, if he did not get the endorsement it would be seen as a failure. The convention is very high stakes for him. The story coming out of that weekend will be Deval (as I do not expect anyone will fail to get on the ballot) and the campaign is much better served with the headlines being that he won the endorsement on the first ballot or by a large number instead of having lost the endorsement to either of the other candidates. The latter situation could be the death knell to his campaign.
In the end the goals for the three campaigns are different. For Gab and Reilly they simply need 15%. Deval HAS to get 50.1% to continue on as a competitive candidate. As such I totally understand the effort he is putting in.
You (and David) seem to think Patrick should just take his convention endorsement for granted.
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That would be very very stupid politics. That’s what Reilly did before the caucuses; assume he would win, and didn’t try. Well guess what happens when you take an election for granted – any election? Your opponents don’t! They work, you don’t, and they stage an upset.
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I know I differ from the majority opinion on this blog when I repeatedly say that Patrick won’t necessarily get the convention endorsement, though he is in the best position to get it. Fine, maybe you’re right, maybe it’s a sure thing.
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But it’s only a sure thing if he works for it, because the other candidates sure as hell will work against it. If you think Patrick will get the convention endorsement without doing the organizing work… perhaps you belong on Reilly’s caucus organizing field team 🙂
Sco and Cos (say, are you two twins, separated at birth?) both make excellent points.
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One of the reasons I’m supporting Deval Patrick (besides the fact that he’s going to make a great Governor) is that I share his vision (or he shares mine) of how politics ought to be conducted in this state.
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As a member of PDM, I’m committed to the concept of relational organizing, which includes telling stories of hope (something Deval is very good at), talking (and listening) to people, and engaging in civic life.
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It’s not about money, it’s not about strategy, it’s about reaching out to each and every voter at each stage of the campaign. It just so happens the Convention is next. After that, the focus will be on the Primary.
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Instead of speculating about the motives of the campaign, why not go to the campaign blog and read the letter, listen to Deval’s robocall, and see what John Walsh has to say. I see no reason not to take all of that at face value.
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If you want a snapshot of the impact of grassroots organizing, take a peek at my description of what happened here in Western Mass last week. If this is the future of politics in Massachusetts, we’ll all be better off.
I think the worse thing Deval can do know is to rest on his laurels. This is a genius strategy keeping his grassroots mean and green and his delegates in his basket especially while the other two candidates are breaking their necks trying to pinch his delegates and lower his count…
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This is a marathon and Deval would be foolish to think that anything is in the perverbial bag… it ain’t over till the fat lady sings… and no one even knows the chorus.
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This is a smart campaign that seems to only get smarter… good to see. BTW I have never heard before of the opposition complaining because their opponent won’t take a vacation from campaigning…
I’ve volunteered to deliver letters. The folks I know who are helping aren’t being paid, heavens no. Our conversations – even the ones that don’t go our way – are as valuable as our successful convincing of undecided voters. If the person I’m visiting isn’t voting for Deval, I want to understand why and address that. I won’t convince everyone I’m sure – I’m pretty new at door knocking, and I was a lousy at selling cookies when I was a Girl Scout – but one of the keys to grassroots campaigning is utilizing the down and dirty, one little step at a time method of reaching your voter base. I’m ready and willing to do that. And it won’t cost the campaign a cent. So I answer you with a question: Why not do it?
Time spent by you or any other volunteer on the delegates is time not spent on primary voters. Similarly, resources (like money to make robocalls) spent on delegates are resources not spent on primary voters. It’s just a question of priorities and what the campaign thinks is most important, because resources, whether financial or human, are limited. If they think hauling in as many delegates as possible is the most important thing they can do right now, that’s fine. But it strikes me that it’s fair to question whether that’s the right call.
Do you think convention delegates aren’t going to vote in the primary?
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There are over 5,000 of them and I bet 99% of them will vote in the primary. If you want to target the most likely voters of all, these are them.
Big spread there, never mind the 2 million or so general election voters. And as much as I love BMG, about 2,000 regular weekly posters and lurkers.
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Nope it’s a much bigger world out there than just us.
Yeah, they are primary voters. But since EVERY campaign is going after them it is not smart resource use to target them. From the perspective of gaining votes this is a bad move… but that is a flawed perspective.
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Cos, nobody cares (or knows) who wins the convention and/or gets the party endorsement except the people who were there — and actually it’s not like they care, they just know! It’s not like they’re going to switch who they’re supporting.
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There may be one good reason I can think of why they might be doing it that would make sense.
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Deval has a huge number of “volunteers” but it’s really hard for a statewide campaign to use volunteers in the most effective way — reaching undecided likely voters. But now Deval’s campaign is going to have thousands of people leaving their houses to deliver a message and a letter. They can do this now because of the sense of urgency, and they give the volunteers a sense of accomplishment which is important in maintaining them.
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They are, in fact, USING their volunteers. Without a doubt, everyone who does this will be far more likely to answer the call to go knock on doors or make calls. And they will be starting much earlier than most.
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Most campaigns ask people to sign up to volunteer. And most campaigns then call the people who signed two months later asking them to hold a sign at a busy intersection.
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I think Deval’s campaign knows that the more you engage your volunteer base the more you get out of it.
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Just a thought.
…you have to keep you’re volunteers engaged and if they don’t hear from a campaign in a while, you lose them.
The delegates to the Convention are not run-of-the-mill voters. They are opinion leaders in their communities. They have cared enough to get involved in the process early on.
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Yeah, sure, in the voting booth, their vote counts the same as every other vote, but between now and the election, they will likely influence many voters by the strength of their personal convictions. That’s worth a lot more than all the TV ads money can buy.
That convention activists “will likely influence” voters, then there would be a strong corrolation between convention endorsement and primary win’s and that is not the case. That was not the case in ’98 or ’90 and I forget what happened in ’94…although O’Brien got both the endorsementr and primary nomination. And certainly the convention endorsement has meant nothing in the “down ballot” races historically.
The primary is in September. The convention is next month.
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It seems that the Patrick campaign is treating the convention pretty much the same as an election. Maybe you don’t see it that way. But they do. Now that they are getting close to the convention, it is time to circle back to their base.
It’s about proving that grassroots and hard work is more effective than cash. It’s also about showing delegates respect and letting them know that DP takes every one of them seriously. What could possibly be wrong with that?