Blue Mass Group

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Dukakis on Patrick

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I got a chance last night to hear Michael Dukakis speak at the Natick Champions event. Very energetic speaker; the event was a blast.

Afterwards, a couple of us got a very brief chance to talk with him, and somebody asked him what he thought of Deval Patrick. He almost immediately began shaking his head, saying, “He doesn’t have the cities.” Didn’t really say anything else (understandable — I’m sure he didn’t want to seem like he was endorsing anybody, plus like I said, it was a very brief conversation), but that got me thinking…

Does Patrick truly “not have the cities”? And if so, why not? Who does?

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Comments

  1. Not sure if Duke meant this as a concern for the primaries or general election, but didn’t O’Brien win the cities in the general election? How about Argeo?

  2. Could be that Dukakis was repeating the common wisdom that Patrick didn’t do as well in the cities as he did elsewhere in the caucuses.

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    That’s certainly true here in the Berkshires. I’m guessing this is probably because (like elsewhere, I’m sure) in the cities there tends to be more of an on-going Party organization, whereas in the small towns people seem to be activated only by each election cycle. Many Party regulars came out early-on for Reilly, not knowing that Patrick would be running (or being part of the large “Deval who?” crowd), and they are sticking with the AG. In contrast, a lot of people who were elected as delegates in the small towns were motivated to run for election after they had met Patrick.

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    As a result of this dynamic, our delgation is nearly 100% for Patrick outside the cities, and much more of a mixed bag in the (two) cities in the District. Still, the majority of our delegation will vote for Patrick at the Convention. So, not doing well in the cities is a relative thing, from my perspective. My hunch is that the same pattern prevails elsewhere in the state, and probably overall.

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    Of course, I could be totally off base here. Maybe The Duke meant something else. But, as noted, it’s way too early to be counting Primary votes.

  3. In the general election, one would presume the cities to remain solidly D, perhaps it is a question as to how much you love you get out of the cities come November.

    • I’m not sure the electoral politics of Massachusetts works quite the same way as when the Duke was king around here.  People are fleeing the cities in droves, and voting along ethnic lines is less pronounced than it used to be.

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      But one thing is for certain – Patrick is winning anything carrying Newton, Somerville and Cambridge.  I’d worry more about him not having Worcester, Norfolk and Essex Counties.

  4. Who are you “dcsohl”? Do you work for the Reilly campaign? Are you a disgruntled Republican looking to trash an up and coming Democrat? This is just gossip and should be ignored.

    • But would it be any less gossipy if the post was signed “David C. Sohl”?  (I have no idea if that is the poster’s name, I’m just using this as an example).

      • If the person used their real name (a) readers could research them, (b) someone who knew them (friends, colleagues, acquaintances, enemies) could hold them accountable, and (c) folks could compare what they wrote here with future comments here and elsewhere: names create a trail. Why do you think newspaper bylines are important, Op-Ed pieces are signed, and members of editorial boards (who write collectively) are identified in newspaper mastheads. Credibility is a composite of content, source, and delivery vector (i.e. who is posting).

        • It took me less than a minute to get dcsohl’s real name.  That takes care of (a) and (b).

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          As for (c), well pseudonyms create a trail as well.  Knowing my real name, for example, does not help you find out my political leanings.  Knowing my handle, however, will lead you to my blog and my postings on other sites.

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          Plus, like dcsohl, my handle IS my name, just not the whole thing.

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          Anyway, sorry to hijack the thread.

              • I don’t want to have to Google every post on this site, or check their entire posting record, before I have some clue about whether they are a nut-case, someone with an absurd conflict of interest, or someone just trying to get people annoyed. It’s a complete waste of time. People should put their real names on their posts and take responsibility for what they write or this place is going to turn into a bullshit factory — and I think we have enough of that in Massachusetts, to be frank.

    • It may prove to be ultimately irrelevant what the Duke thinks of anybody else, but I’m not sure that that qualifies as “just gossip”, any more than anybody else’s opinion is.

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      Hell, anything on this site that isn’t straightforward reporting of news events is “just gossip”, isn’t it? Should it all be dismissed out of hand?

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      You are correct, though, that I should have mentioned that I am a Patrick delegate. Does that make my post any more or less “gossip”, and if so, why?

  5. No matter how much things have changed since Mike Dukakis took that walk down the State House steps in 1990, he still knows something about winning elections and building grassroots support (although I doubt very much that he understands how new technology such as the internet is changing how you do that).  In any event, I’d love to hear his take on this election, and some clarification of what he means by Patrick not having the cities.

    • eager to listen to the Duke’s advice, the party has begun heeding his advice – the victory 2006 campaign. he was the last dem to win the corner office.

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      much as I like to belabor certain governors cough Romney’s a hack cough they do have extensive information networks and I’d take Dukakis at his word. He probably has a lot more inside info than others on this site (at least until John Walsh starts posting.)

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      I also did a quick google on our poster and found what I think is a close match, but I won’t divulge that info here. Just saying it can be done (in 10 seconds.)dcsohl has been pretty open about who he or she is in posts.

  6. This makes sense for the convention, but not necessarily for the general election.

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    I live in Springfield, and I would like to see Deval Patrick become the next governor. There are serious machine politics in Springfield, mostly under everyone’s radar.

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    Machines tend to favor established candidates. In this campaign, that means Tom Reilly. Given the fact that Reilly is from Springfield, that makes convention support for him nearly a lock. That doesn’t automatically translate to support in a general election.

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    I believe that the Springfield Republican will endorse Reilly. The tone of their articles has been very pro-Reilly, and the Republican is very, very tied to machine politics. I don’t think that anything can change that.

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    However, I’m hoping that the people of Springfield come to believe that Patrick will be much more on their side.

    • I think you must be “NoPolitician” if you are under the impression that Reilly has “a lock” on the Springfield Convention Delegation. (I suspect that was just a guess on your part.) I’ve been working with some of the Springfield folks supporting Patrick, and my impression is that Reilly cannot even claim the majority of the Delegation. And he grew up and went to college in Springfield!

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      Remember, Reilly did not win a single delegate in Watertown, where he has lived for over 20 years!

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      There is no substitute for grassroots organizing. That’s the message from Dukakis and it is as true today as it was 20 years ago. Yes, our tools may now include the internet, but in the end it’s about getting people to show up at the caucuses and at the voting booth.

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      If you want to get a feel for the level of support Deval Patrick enjoys in Springfield, come to our party on Saturday night. You don’t even have to pay if you don’t want to — we’d love to have you there. (But, since you’re a supporter, I hope you’d be willing to put a few bucks into the kitty.) It should be a blast, with a DJ, live entertainment, and a fun auction (including a Red Sox ticket).

  7. I love Dukakis, I really do, but I have to question where this came from.  Obviously the true measure will be at the convention, but talking to people around the state and following the postings on blogs immediately after the caucuses it sure as heck seemed like Patrick did well.

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    The questions I have are:
    1. How many, if any, will shift to support Gabrielli at the convention? (I don’t think that Patrick supporters will shift to Reilly.)
    2. Boston is a ‘gimme’ to Reilly because of Menino’s support and control of the delegates, but it is not clear to me yet whether other mayors have similar control. Love to hear people’s thoughts on this.

    • Who are you “Political Inaction”? A Patrick delegate? A volunteer? Chris Lydon? The ghost of Henry Wadsworth Longfellow? It’s pretty cheeky to use a pseudonym when you question someone else’s bona fides. Why don’t you use your real name. That’s the first question I’d like answered, with respect.

      • I know anonymous posting is a big issue on BMG right now, but I really don’t think we need to turn every thread into a discussion of the issue — we already have one thread to discuss the issue and the debates on BMG will be a lot less fun if every anonymous post is followed by a snarky “who are you really?” comment.

        • I was being sincere. So, apologies to our beloved commentators for snarkiness, and point taken about general commenting policy, but I actually was being sincere. I personally don’t think it is possible to have a particularly useful discussion — note conditional adjectives — about the assertions in this post without knowing more about the author.

      • BMG,

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        I have re-read my posting three times now and don’t see how I’ve said anything that requires me to ‘out’ myself. I said I disagree with Dukakis and then asked questions, I don’t see how this is a big deal.

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        I will gladly disclose that I am indeed a Patrick delegate and supporter, but I don’t see where I said anything ‘snarky’ or promoting Patrick.

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        Seems to me that it these are the same questions ALL of the candidates should be asking. Don’t you think that Gabrielli, who was not a candidate during the caucuses is asking this? Don’t you think that Reilly is trying to figure out how he can hold his existing delegates and pressuring the power-brokers in the areas he did well to keep the delegates on his side?

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        I just don’t see how the questions I asked rises to the level of concern you seem to have.

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        As for who I am, I am one of those that fears the ‘outing’ of us will be a problem because of my work.

  8. I find Dukakis’ comment completely fascinating.  Seriously, the man won the governorship, lost the governorship, won again, and was re-elected.  He started by running a slate of candidates for the Board of Selectmen in Brookline and never looked back until he was the Democratic nominee for President.  I would love to know what he is thinking.

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    If I had to venture a guess, I would assume that he was referring to Reilly’s support among mayors and/or to the fact that Patrick appears to be appealing to a higher-income, higher education crowd that may tend to reside in the suburbs.  The polls, with their limited value, seem to suggest that is a pocket of strength for Patrick  That being said, my guess is only an opinion and I’d much rather know what The Duke is actually thinking.

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    One final thought: I am hardly an ideological child of Dukakis, but has there ever been a man who has been so neglected by his own party than our last Democratic Governor?

    • Dukakis was cast aside by the national folks, but he’s been getting around the state party.  He’s been pushing the door-to-door neighbor-to-neighbor style campaigning that the Mass Dems are trying to rediscover with their Victory ’06 campaign.

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      He was also appointed, along with Congresman McGovern to chair the commission that was supposed to streamline the convention and nominating process.  The state committee, of course, promptly ignored the reccomendations they made that would open up participation and implemented the ones that increased their own influence.  Go figure.

  9. They’ll be giving an Honorary Degree in this filed next Spring at Northeastern.

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    So Bob, if my real name was John Smith, would that be helpful?

  10. After sneaking forward to an empty table #30 after desert and Al Franken at the Roosevelt Dinner I noticed Mike Dukakis a few tables over.  I was contemplating going over and asking him my favorite question of late, “Will Deval be a great governor, or the greatest governor of Massachusetts?”  Alas, I did not.  Nevertheless, rest assured Mike, Ms. Healey does NOT have the cities either, and never will.

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