Blue Mass Group

Reality-based commentary on politics.

I am voting for Gabrieli on the first ballot this Saturday

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I have been very impressed by Deval Patrick, but am going to vote for Chris Gabrieli on the first ballot this Saturday.  If a 2nd ballot is necessary, I will then switch back to Patrick to help push him over the 50% threshold and win the weekend convention.  The reasons that I am doing this are as follows: 1) Patrick is going to make the ballot and is assured of 15%; 2) Patrick is going to win the convention in any event; 3) Gabrieli is a legitimate candidate with impeccable democratic credentials and intriguing ideas; 4) The democratic party is about inclusion and Gabrieli could be at risk not to get to the required 15% threshold – that would be an embarrassment to the party and hurt us in the Fall; 5) Along these lines, I have not appreciated what I read about Reilly delegates being disqualified by DP supporters; 6) Patrick is fading in the polls and Gabrieli is a good hedge – in the end Gabrieli, Reilly, and/or Patrick are superior to the alternatives and 16 years of Republican rule is enough. Do we want to risk making it 20 years? 

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  1. Your logic is peccable, but it’s your vote to waste, if you so choose.

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    The democratic party is about inclusion and … 16 years of Republican rule is enough.

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    You’ve got that right. By inclusioning countless candidates our beloved party has torn itself apart in Primary after Primary, allowing the GOP to do a cakewalk to the Corner Office.

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    What would be so bad about having a strong candidate that had the support of the entire Party? You don’t see the connection between having multiple candidates and losing?

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    One of the reasons I am supporting Deval Patrick is that he is trying to end politics as a blood sport and make it about governing. Isn’t that (or shouldn’t it be) our goal?

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    … an embarrassment to the party and hurt us in the Fall.

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    Do you mean in the Autumn or in the ruin? Do you really think the average voter in November will give two flops about who got how many votes at an obscure Party Convention on the first weekend in June?

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    Get real!

      • I know that in the world of sound-bites and attack ads and suchlike, this is probably the message that will be sent.  It’s a shame, though, because Gabrieli’s candidacy is a product of insiders.  He was convinced to run by insiders after Reilly’s campaign faltered.  Insiders got the 500 signatures he needed to even go to the convention.  Insiders interpreted the rules favorably on his behalf to expand the delegate pool he could recruit those 500 from.  Insiders — DSC members, anyway — are calling me telling me how great he is and he is owed a place on the ballot.

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        Pardon me if I don’t buy that Gabrieli being left off the ballot proves the party is being run by insiders.  Dysfunctional, maybe, but if he doesn’t make the ballot it won’t be because insiders are keeping him off.

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        Am I an insider, David?

        • That’s really the question.  Compared to the “average voter” who doesn’t really start paying much attention to these races until a couple of weeks before decision time?  Absolutely you are.  Sorry, but them’s the facts.

          • I beg to differ, David.  Just because I’m paying attention doesn’t mean I’m an insider.  It means that I’m paying attention.  Is the person who decides who they want to vote for in July more of an “insider” than the person who waits until September?  If so then the term is completely meaningless.

    • The average voter thinks the party activists are out of touch. That’s why the list of the unenrolled grow relative every year.  How will it look when the person who all polls indicate is in first or second is excluded from the ballot?  I want to win for once and having more time to examine the choices and especially Gabrieli given his late entry is the best way to do that.  Frank Belotti & Steve Pierce won their respective conventions in 1990.  John Silber and Bill Weld won the primaries.  Let’s have a real competitive campaign and not have 4000-5000 people limit the choices.  Gabrieli is clearly gaining momentum with the general public, but if Patrick is as formidable as I (& you) think he is, he will overcome his deficit in the polls and prevail. Note the disconnect between the delegate poll and the broader polls.  So, you get real Michael!! đŸ™‚

  2. I ask you two questions:
    1. When was the last time the Mass GOP has had a primary fight for governor?
    2. How long have they controlled the corner office?

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    The worst thing we can do is force a strategy that tries to make everyone happy for the sake of appearances just because some talking heads think that this could “hurt us in the Fall.”  It never seems to hurt our opponents.

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    Here’s a strategy for all of us: vote you heart on each and every ballot.

    • I believe that the last “real” contested republican convention in our state occurred in 1998 (Cellucci vs. Malone).  You may recall that Cellucci won a tough primary battle & then went on to beat Harshbarger in a very close race.

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      The R’s have held the Corner Office for 16 years.  Let’s not make it 20 by limiting our options now…

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      Best,
      Southshoreguy

      • Cellucci beat Malone by 20 pts in the primary.  In both examples- ’90 and ’98 the Democrats had a far more bruising primary battle than the Republicans.

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        When Jane Swift bowed out for Mitt Romney and, more recently, Romney and friends cleared the way for Kerry Healey, it was a non-issue.  It certainly didn’t hurt them in 2002.

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        If we come out of the convention with only two candidates, it will be an issue for 3-4 news cycles and then it will go away, but the notion that it could “hurt us in the Fall” is nonsense.  What would hurt us a lot more is if we have a bruising three-way primary with millions of dollars in personal fortunes only serving to drive up all of our candidates’ negatives why Kerry Healey continues to focus on November.

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        Let me clarify- I’m not necessarily against Gabrieli (or Reilly) and will certainly support whoever wins in September. I just think it’s flawed thinking that more choices means better chances.

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        It’s not a coincidence that the R’s essentially hand-pick their nominees, who in turn really do hand-pick their running mates.  They’re gunning for November when far too many of us are still hung up on June.

    • Was the balance of power argument.

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      That goes like this:

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      “Both branches of the Legislature are controlled by Democrats. Elect us (Weld, Cellucci, Romney, Healey) and we’ll keep them in check.”

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      True or not, it has been a very effective argument posed just before the general election on the airwaves.  The swing voter who won’t think about the race until 2 or 3 days out from the general finds that argument very very persuasive.

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      So just because the Republican bench is so so thin and they are good at cutting deals to avoid primary races, the real obstacle for the democrats is the balance of power argument.

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      Five gold stars to the intellect that gives us the argument to counter this one!!!

      • That tired old dog won’t hunt.

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        The reason the Dems haven’t won is they/we (I sometimes find myself distancing myself from losers) haven’t won is that we haven’t put up quality candidates like Deval Patrick.

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        Why would an overwhelmingly Democratic state want the Democrats to be kept in check? I’m so tired of hearing that hogwash I could puke.

        • Is that the implication of your statement? 

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          I heard Kerry Healey speak about a month ago to a group of elected officials. And the “hogwash” argument was there in all it’s glory. And it will be front and center come November. Mark my words. 

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          Instead of calling their tactic “hogwash”, why not humor me and come up with a counter argument to make it ineffective?  Remember, we’re talking about people who don’t look at the election until just before election day. Very illinformed. Very non-partisian.

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          Personally, I think the recent Democratic Gubinatorial debate was better with three candidates, than it was earlier with just two in the race.

  3. In regards to your forth point. The Republicans rarely if ever have primary contests and keep on winning the corner office. How is having a more contentious, more fractious primary season helpful? I really think Chris’ entry in to the race was damaging to our chances and negatively effected the tone of the race.

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    As for this weekend, from my little window on the world I am most concerned for Reilly. I know a large number of DP delegates and a handful of CG delegates, but do not know ANY TR delegates. How is it going to look if he, the supposed front runner, does not make it on the ballot.

    • Why not go back to the most contentious Democratic Primary caucuses in the last 25 years?  Do you know which one I’m talking about?

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      It was 1982. Ed King was the sitting Democratic Governor. Dukakis was the ex-Governor, and add into that mix the son of the sitting Speaker of the US House, and the at the time current Lt. Governor Tommy O’Neil.

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      It was a knock down convention. A very competitive primary. And the Democrats went on to win. Dukakis organized a great grassroots field organization.

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      Didn’t seem to hurt the Democrats prospects then? Did it?

  4. I was called by a friend this evening who knows that I’m a Patrick delegate and asked to support Gab on the first ballot. This person listed all of the arguments… he’s a great dem, more competition, money etc. I ended the conversation semi-undecided and have mulled over some thoughts as the night progressed. Some of my thoughts:

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    1 — What I find fascinating about this whole discussion is that everyone is excited about Patrick and Gab… NOBODY cares about Reilly (except rightmiddleleft, but who takes him seriously?). Why can’t we have an effort to get Reilly off the ballot? Or trade — Sure, we’ll let Gab on if Reilly gets off.

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    2 — Like the process or hate the process, no candidate knows the ins and outs of running for governor or lite gov more than GABRIELI HIMSELF. If he wanted to secure a spot on the ballot he should have done it the way EVERYONE ELSE took the time to do it.

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    3 — As someone who has been a strategist for a number of campaigns (and a municipal candidate, I might add), and someone who was elected as a Patrick Delegate, I feel a duty to complete my role as a Patrick Delegate. As such, when the campaign asks me to vote on the first and every ballot for Patrick, and thus fill a campaign promise I made when “running” for delegate, I feel obligated to do so. Because I am not a strategist with the Patrick campaign, I leave that decision to the campaign I pledged to support. If they said vote for Gab, I may be inclined to do so. I hope that every Patrick delegate is loyal to his or her candidate, and doesn’t think they can better articulate his campaign’s strategy (by voting to double his opposition?) than the people paid to do so.

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    4 — I really hope that someone sends the dems a miracle this convention and Reilly falls short of his 15%. (“But he’s earned it…” his supporters and others say) I say not so much.

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    5 — Imagine for a moment, the following: Deval Patrick wins an amazing 76% of the convention vote — Reilly comes in second with 13% and Gab 11%. After the horrors of the establishment candidate and the candidate who forgot the rules from when he was the lite gov nominee 4 years earler getting knocked blow over in 3 days, we have 5 months of pounding Kerry Healey with the failures of the administration she was part of. Tell me that you think she would still win? I dare you! Dream come true.

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    I’m voting for Deval Patrick on every ballot & primary, but I will support Gabrieli if he wins the primary, and I don’t know if I will support DINO Reilly. Income tax? Gay marriage? St. Fleur? Southborough vehicular drunk-driving-double-murder cover-up?

    • “Southborough vehicular drunk-driving-double-murder cover-up?”

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      Come on, Migraine!  I am no Reilly fan, but this is a cheap shot.  There are plenty of real reasons to oppose this candidate on the issues without sensationalizing a family’s obvious tragedy.

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      This is exactly the sort of nonsense that the Republicans want us to harp on.

  5. If you are an add-on, ex-officio, or elected at the caucuses as “undecided”, then I respect your decision but disagree. If, on the other hand, you’re pledged your support for a particular candidate at the caucuses, then you’re going back on your pledge, and I hope those in your town/ward remember that the next time you run.

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    To your individual points:

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    1) Patrick is going to make the ballot and is assured of 15%

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    True, but the higher the percentage he garners, the more momentum, positive media, money comes his way after the convention.

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    2) Patrick is going to win the convention in any event

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    Patrick’s chances of winning a majority of the delegates (and the endorsement of the party) are very good, but not absolutely guaranteed. Regardless, the higher Patrick’s percentage, the more momentum he’ll have coming out the of gate. Winning with 70% says a lot more than winning with 51%.

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    3) Gabrieli is a legitimate candidate with impeccable democratic credentials and intriguing ideas

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    I used to think “legitimate” meant you could mobilize a lot of supporters to your side, but now I guess its synonymous with “wealthy”. The point of the caucuses is to demonstrate that legitimacy through grassroots support. Maybe we should replace the caucuses with an auction.

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    4) The democratic party is about inclusion and Gabrieli could be at risk not to get to the required 15% threshold – that would be an embarrassment to the party and hurt us in the Fall

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    Should we be embarrassed by the fact that we followed our own rules? Should we be embarrassed that our caucuses are meaningful events at which candidates need to demonstrate a threshold of grassroots support? Frankly, I’ll be more embarrassed if he does make the ballot; that would send the message that if your wealthy enough, the caucuses are pointless formalities, because you can just purchase your own “legitimacy”, and buy your way onto the ballot.

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    5) Along these lines, I have not appreciated what I read about Reilly delegates being disqualified by DP supporters

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    So you’re punishing DP because some of his delegates took it upon themselves to enforce the convention rules? I understand if you disagree with the rules on cross-party endorsements — I do too. But it doesn’t make sense to punish DP’s campaign because of something that a) they did not initiate (as far as we know and no one has claimed otherwise); and that b) follows the rules of the convention.

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    6) Patrick is fading in the polls and Gabrieli is a good hedge – in the end Gabrieli, Reilly, and/or Patrick are superior to the alternatives and 16 years of Republican rule is enough. Do we want to risk making it 20 years?

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    I do not want to risk making it 20 years of Republican governorship . . . and that’s a good reason to vote for Deval. If the polls have told us anything at this point, it’s that we have a fluid race between three candidates. Gabrieli’s has boosted his numbers by saturating the airwaves when voters are otherwise not paying much attention to the race. But what’s going to count down the line is the ability to mobilize an army of volunteers — door knockers, phone callers, fundraisers, etc — and that’s what Deval has done better than any other candidate.

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