Blue Mass Group

Reality-based commentary on politics.

New Suffolk Poll: “Reilly Would be Nominee, Governor”

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7NEWS/Suffolk University released a new poll today.  Here are some of the highlights from the press release:

  • When asked, if the Democratic primary were held today and the candidates were Chris Gabrieli, Deval Patrick and Tom Reilly, to whom would you lean, 35% selected Reilly, 20% chose Patrick, and 15% picked Gabrieli, while 29% were undecided.

  • Attorney General Tom Reilly continues to lead Democratic voters statewide and would defeat Kerry Healey, 33%-26%.

  • When asked, if the final election for Governor were held today, toward whom would you lean, 31% selected Gabrieli, 25% chose Healey.

  • The poll also showed Healey defeating Deval Patrick for the first time in a general election, 28%-26%.

    “Make no mistake about it, if the election was held today, Tom Reilly would be the Democratic nominee and Tom Reilly would be the next Governor,” stated David Paleologos, Director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center.

    The Suffolk University poll was conducted April 30 thru May 2, 2006. The margin of error is +/- 4.9% at a 95% level of confidence. All 400 Massachusetts respondents indicated they were registered voters and had voted in the 2002 gubernatorial election.

    Love them, hate them, debate them – polls don’t mean mean everything, but they mean something.

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      • State House News Service.  It was under the “Latest Releases” section.  According to the release, the entire poll will be available on Suffolk’s website tomorrow.

    2. If you look back at the last Suffolk poll, the first poll taken after Gabrieli joined, no much has changed. Gabrieli gained as would be expected, though Reilly gain seems odd considering how negative his campaign has been lately, but probably gained some on becoming anti-tax. Patrick’s had a tough week and a one point drop isn’t much. Also, the undecided have to be about 30% in this poll, so it’s clear the field is still open.

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      Also, that’s definitely not the first time I’ve seen a poll with Healey beating Deval, though the first in a while, but again the undecideds are still nearly as high as the 3 candidates, so it’s still quite open. (I’m referencing the wikipedia polls list and the links from there) That said, it’s not good, but the general trend has been all the dems leading in November

      • People often leap to conclusions based on the latest blip. Many had Reilly buried three months ago over St. Fleur. Others are ready to pronounce Patrick finished after his bad couple of weeks on financial disclosure and Ameriquest. Or to find great significance in Gabrielli’s essentially catching the other two in the most recent poll.

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        Duh. If there’s enough bad press (Reilly before, Patrick now), your numbers will go down. If you dump a boatload of money on TV while your rivals are silent, your numbers go up. Patrick will get a bounce in four weeks from the convention, but the primary is still 3 1/2 months — an eternity — after that.

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        Most people still aren’t paying attention. Only a fool would bet too much on or against any of these three guys right now.

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