Blue Mass Group

Reality-based commentary on politics.

Rasmussen: All Dems Beat Healey

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We’re in good shape, folks: All Dems beat Kerry Healey in Rasmussen poll:

When voters consider a three-way match-up, Democratic Attorney General Thomas Reilly  leads Healey 38% to 26%. Lawyer Deval L. Patrick holds a 36% to 26% edge while wealthy investor Chris Gabrielli leads the Republican 37% to 25%

Christy P. Mihos, running as an Independent, continues to grab support from 14% to 16% of voters.

The survey also found that Governor Mitt Romney would lose his home state Electoral Votes in a match-up with Virginia’s Mark Warner.

Ha! The last one was a little extra for us. (Mark who?)

Interesting that basically, those results are all the same. It would be nice to see one of those candidates reach 50%, though.

Thanks to Political Wire.

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Comments

  1. I know that the early polls suggested that Mihos was drawing equally from Healey and the Dems, but I wonder if that is correct.  Other than the radio ads, it seems like Mihos’ campaign lacks spark.  It is highly conceivable that he could decide to save his money and call it a race, in which case, where would his 14-16% go?  Any thoughts?

    • Mihos hasn’t hit the TV yet.  I’m sure he’s got people whispering in his ear about how great he is and how once the campaign starts Independents will flock to him.

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      Don’t forget, Mihos has got a big enough ego and enough axes to grind that he might just stay in it to spite Healey and the AMG-wing of the state Republicans.

      • I sometimes forget that a few million dollars is like pocket change to some of these guys.  The idea of throwing that kind of money away on a grudge match just blows my mind.

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        That 14-16% block worries me.  It just seems like he could turn this whole race on its head by pulling out at some late stage.

        • If he doesn’t have an LG candidate in the next month or so, then start worrying.  It’s still May, he’s got no primary to win and no reason to spend any money other than for the couple spots on WBZ and RKO to remind people he still exists.

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          Anyway, forget about the 14-16% — a lot can and will change before the dust settles in November.  Concentrate on getting the 600,000+ Democrats who didn’t vote in 2002 out in 2006.  That’s how we’ll win.

        • That 14-16% block worries me.  It just seems like he could turn this whole race on its head by pulling out at some late stage.

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          If we had IRV, it wouldn’t matter đŸ™‚  If he couldn’t win, then staying in or pulling out at the end would make little difference, except as far as what voters his campaign would’ve pulled to the polls who wouldn’t vote if he pulled out.  Which wouldn’t be enough, in this race, to be an important factor IMO.

    • could it?

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      The three Dems have at least 10 point leads, so if it broke 12-2 (13-3) to Healey, it would be a tie race.

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      But, I can’t imagine the Mihos folks breaking 6:1 or even 4.3:1 for Healey.

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      So, it would seem that Mihos staying in the race is good for the Dems, since solid Mihos people just fall off the table and let the Dems focus on their own GOTV effort with fewer participants on both sides.

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      Additionally, I’m hoping that the Dem Party grassroots GOTV effort will bear fruit, resulting in a boost for any of the three…

    • Interesting to compare this poll to the State House News Service poll that came out a week or so ago and was much discussed on this site.  Both the SHNS poll and this Rasmussen poll had Reilly and Gabrielli at the same percentage in the three way match-ups (38% and 37% respectively).  Patrick, on the other hand, goes from 29% in the SHNS poll to 36% here.  Mihos polls slightly better in the Rasmussen poll (by a couple points) and Healy polls about 6 points worse (she was at 30 or 31% in SHNS and 25 or 26% here).

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      So in the Rasmussen poll, it really doesn’t matter who the Dem candidate is because, if you factor in margin of error, the race is exactly the same in all three match-ups.  That would seem to me to be good news for Patrick, as it refutes that assertions made last week that he couldn’t win the general.  If this poll is to be believe, he has just as good a shot against Healy as Reilly or Gabrieli. 

        • Is there a reason you feel that way and is it somehow based on the poll?  Or is it a personal preference sort of thing?  It’s always good to have a little support for a flat statement like that especially on a website like this.

          • In a nutshell, I think trust and sincerity will be a big issue for the “average” voter. And Reilly has that, whether true or not.

            • More trust and sincerity than either Patrick or Gabrielli?  Most people I talk to “around the water cooler” actually feel different about Reilly, that is is more a politician than the other two, and therefore less sincere or trustworthy.  To be honest, I feel the same way (for full disclosure, my opinion is based largely on his handling of the gay marriage issue, which he has botched repeatedly and changed his tune as the winds change). 

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              Aside from my personal feelings and what I have heard, if trust and sincerity were in fact the big issues, wouldn’t that lend credence to the idea that the “average” voter would be more likely to support a non-politican, especially in this era where all politicians are viewed so unfavorably?  And wouldn’t that in fact be a problem for Reilly vis a vis the other two Dems in the race?

              • But the around the water cooler just travel to joe voter. Most believe he is sincere. I think he is a fraud

  3. Charley, thanks for posting.

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    This is good news indeed for those of us who want to see a Democrat as Governor of this Commonwealth after such a long, long drought.

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    What worries me is the 20%+ who don’t seem to have an opinion. I know it’s still early, and all that, but it seems to me that’s a big challenge for all of us, no matter which Dem we support, to get out there and spread the word that there’s an election this year, for gosh sakes, and it’s important!

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    I know when I was collecting signatures for my candidate, I was astounded at how many people didn’t even know there’s an election cycle underway. Let’s hope the unopinionated 20% breaks the same way as those who responded (or stays home). I don’t have time to chase down the original poll, and you didn’t say if these are “likely” voters, but I think it’s probably too early to care about those distinctions…

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    Thanks again!

  4. Seeing all three Democrats poll about the same tells me this: Most of the people polled haven’t been paying much attention to the primary.  They just want a Democrat.  Other than that, I wouldn’t take these numbers to mean much.  Consider it a barometer of how much the election has(n’t) penetrated public consciousness so far.

  5. I’m surprised there hasn’t been a front-page string on this potent Scot Lehigh column in today’s Globe.

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    Gabrieli has a 12-point lead on Healey but is still clawing to get his 15% at the Convention.

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    Rightfully so – getting into the race post-caucuses makes it much more difficult.

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    But Lehigh makes a strong argument that undecided/uncommitted delegates should consider supporting Gabrieli on the first ballot if only to ensure that he gets 15% so that his voice and ideas continue to be present in the debate through the primary.

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    He shouldn’t be “entitled” to 15% – but the case is made that his credibility, electability, ideas, experience, and service to the party warrant his continued presence in the race.

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    Putting aside the argument of who Gabrieli’s entrance impacts more – Reilly or Patrick – I’d love to hear everyone’s thoughts on the column.

      • I think it’s more appropriate to say “if Democratic primary voters hadn’t elected Silber as their nominee” …

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        (what were they thinking???)

        • Against Silber. Seriously, i forget. Evelyn Murphy?

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          Silber was our best shot.

          • Belotti delegates made a deal at the convention to get Silber his 15%.  Would Belotti have won?  Maybe not, since he couldn’t even win the primary, but I bet he’d have had more sense than to cuss out Natalie Jacobson.

            • Of course. Frank had to be a big baby and run out and support Weld. He even turned him on to his big time fundraiser, Peter Belandi. The rest is history. Weld, asleep at the wheel, allowed the wiseguys to get their hands on the big dig contracts and ripped us off blind. Followed all the way through to Jane Swift.

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              Cellucci, the gamblin degenerate was forced to do more and more favors for these people. Remember the teamsters and movie making. Celluch lookin the other way.

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              Thanks Frank Bellotti.

              • has anything to do with wining election. That is the problem. To say someone, like Bellotti, would not have beaten weld because he couldn’t win primary misses the big problem with our party.

    • People may only get to vote once. I’m not going to get into the details because there are those who are far more knowledgable on this subject than I, but the first ballot rules have been changed since the last party convention.

      • Ryan – The major rule that changed from the ’02 convention is that in 2002, candidates could make 15% on the second ballot (a la Tolman).  In ’06, it has to be a first ballot 15%.

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        As far as the convention endorsement, that operates very similar to runoff voting.  Whether it is on the first ballot or the second, Deval is virtually assured the endorsement.  That’s just a procedural point.  I expect a first ballot 50+% endorsement-worthy delegate vote for Deval.  Tom and Chris will split the other -49%.

  6. This confirms my entire thoughts I’ve had all along: In this primary race, vote for who you want to win. Don’t vote for who you think will have the best chance winning the general election, vote for the democratic candidate you like the best in the primary.

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    All three will have a better than even shot in beating Kerry Healey. Vote for the guy you like the best.

    • Before this past January, Reilly had the race locked up by many people’s standards.  Then Reilly had an awful January, and Deval gained much of his momemtum – as much because of his own positives as Reilly’s negative – i.e. people wanted an alternative to Reilly.

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      It’s good to have choices.

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      Vote for the candidate you like best.  But I don’t think it’s foolish to say, as a corollary, that if there is a chance to advance all three legitimate candidates to the ballot, we ought to do it, if only to broaden our choices and have as many voices and ideas and supporters on the Democratic side.

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      Just my humble opinion.

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