Make sure you don’t miss the front page report from the Globe today about why folks are leaving the state; the Globe actually did a poll. The reasons are not at all surprising: Jobs and housing costs. Go figure.
The other thing that jumps out at you is that MA expats note that folks are friendlier elsewhere. I lived in the Midwest for ten years, and especially on the roads, I’m sorry, but it’s true. And it doesn’t have to be that way. But how do we change it?
Please share widely!
They only did half the job, here, so don’t jump to conclusions that these are the problems we necessarily need to fix. The other half is, what draws people to come here? Granted, there are fewer of those on balance in the past few years than there are those who left, but that difference is dwarfed by the large numbers of both.
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We can’t be everything to everybody. I know plenty of people who moved here from other states, are extremely happy, and don’t plan to leave. They cite all sorts of problems with the states they left, even though some of those states are gaining population.
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To do well, we can’t be ideal for everyone. We have to figure out what we are good at, and be better at it. What sorts of people do want to be here? How can we be better for them?
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I’m not trying to deny that the high cost of housing is a problem. I just have to say that because I know if I didn’t, someone would blast my comment for exactly that, even though I’m not saying it. It may be that the high cost of housing can’t be solved without undermining other things which are more valuable to us, and that enhancing those things may do more for us. Or that may not be the case. Certainly housing costs a lot for some reasons, and not all of them are bad reasons, though some of them probably are.
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What I’m saying is, we can’t take a survey of why people leave, and use it as grounds for prescribing a cure. We need to know why people stay, and why people come here, too, and only with a combined picture of all of those can we find the right cure.
For example, as you may know, Google is opening up a place in Cambridge.
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Google has recruited a number of my friends in the past couple of years, and several of them moved to California. But none from here. Google has tried to recruit several of my Boston area friends, but with the exception of one English guy who wanted to leave the US and went to work for them in Ireland, all the Boston area people I know who Google wanted said something like, “I’d like to work for you, but I’m not moving”. At least one of them was told by the Google person that, yeah, that’s a consistent problem they have trying to recruit people in Boston – they don’t want to move away. So it seems to me that at least one of the factors that got Google to open up shop here, is that there are lots of people here they want to hire, who don’t want to leave.
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Why do those people like it here so much? They’re not even mostly from here, originally. I have some idea, of course. But I think if we had a survey that tried to answer that question, it would be very useful.
I never really understood what motivates someone to pull up their roots and move away from their family. Is it that people don’t have much family anymore because people are having less kids?
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I probably have 200 family members that live near me, including 25-50 I see around once a month. I just can’t ever imagine saying “f*ck it” and moving to Las Vegas or Phoenix, or even New Hampshire.
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Now I admit I’m doing pretty well. I’m not worrying too much about bills and my job is pretty stable, so I don’t know what it’s like to be on the other side of the aisle. But I still just see myself doing whatever it takes to stay where I live, because my family, my life is where I am now.
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What is there to life if you can’t experience your grandkids or grandparents except via photographs?
How about this: it’s not just the cost of housing; or just job/life’s work opportunity. Rather, it’s the ratio of one to the other.
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If Housing$/Opportunity = high, folks will move out.
If Housing$/Opportunity = low, folks will move in.
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Cos, I know what you’re saying about Google and so forth; this area is unique indeed. It was one of the stars of “The Rise of the Creative Class.”.
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And yet, folks are leaving. That just can’t be denied. So it behooves us to find out why they’re leaving, and yes, how do we get them — or someone else — back.
Why is more population better? Before you answer “more tax dollars”, consider that people are burdens as well as sources of income.
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To be frank, do you want a family of two minimum-wage working parents with 5 kids to move to MA? Their kids will sap tax dollars like crazy, and the parents aren’t likely to be contributing much to the community and they sure aren’t paying very much in taxes.
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I’m not saying we shouldn’t help take care of them if they do move to MA, but it’s not obvious that we want to attract that demographic.
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In fact, the only reason I can think of to pull for population growth regardless of “quality” is to get more blue legislators in Congress and more EVs in presidential elections…
To my mind, the population is one way to measure quality of life. It’s not so much that we want more people for the heck of it — we do want an attractive place to live, so that it’s nice for us to live here.
Everything you describe in your ugly post — “who let them in?” “who wants them?” — is precisely what is happening in MA. We’re attracting exactly the demographic you claim you don’t want. Take your head out of the sand and look around. Stop being a wishful-thinking moron.
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I’m in the housing industry and we have the numbers. If you read the Globe article (and the accompanying, in-denial editorial,) the 19,000-person 2003-2005 figure is net population outflow and says nothing about who is leaving and who is arriving.
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The picture is much bleaker than you can imagine. Every year since the 2000 census there’s about a 50,000 person inflow and a 50,000 person outflow — a rough balance each year. I can reliably tell you this figure is understated due to the influx of illegal immigrants who avoid census takers for obvious reasons. We know the offical census numbers are low on the basis of the demand for and sales of entry-level real estate, and from rental and other housing data.
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Who’s leaving? In short, the money’s leaving. Retirees, new-minted college grads (we have a large number of them,) middle-class job seekers, they’re leaving. Drive around the most expensive places on the Cape in July & August and see all the FL license plates. They’re former MA residents who got up and left for FL … perhaps for the weather but … FL has NO INHERITANCE TAX.
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Who’s arriving? Exactly those you do not wish to emmigrate here are emmigrating here: low-income, minimum-wage dual-incomes parents with 5 kids. And lots are illegal. Sure, there are the occasional Google jobs, and “eds and meds”, but for the most part these high end demographics are far and few between.
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And guess what? The newly arriving are the people who will end up using all the Commonwealth’s social services. They are and will continue to put a strain on state and local budgets. And our new health “reform” looks pretty good to a Honduran family … why would they go to NH with no services? Of course they come here. Heck, we almost passed in-state tuition for illegals. Get the idea?
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And despite that draw, the state is still shrinking in net population. What will 2006 bring?
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Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but at this pace MA is scheduled to lose not one but 2 congressional seats and more EVs in 2010. Blue states are losing their apportionment while the red states are increasing there’s.
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From a political point of view, it really sucks being a childless, pro-abortion, non-voting-illegal-immigrant-friendly blue state.
They’re former MA residents who got up and left for FL … perhaps for the weather but … FL has NO INHERITANCE TAX.
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“Perhaps” for the weather?
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Retirees have been moving from the northeast to Florida in increasing numbers for the past four decades. These are not people who otherwise would prefer to sit huddled in a New England home all winter in front of a TV set but go south to avoid inheritance tax –they move to Florida becuase they can be active year-round in what have become very accomodating, highly social communities custom-built for seniors.
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Sure, plenty of these folks return to the Northeast coast in the warmer months (esp. Long Island and the Cape) because it gets too hot in the South and they like it up here when they can go outside and be active.
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Also, as for illegals — I thought they were heading in much larger numbers to Mexican borders states (obiviously) and places like Georgia, Colorado, Florida and the Carolinas because there is so much more illegal work available there in new housing construction/building. You don’t see anything in MA like the day laborer pick-up spots in these states.
To the contrary, more retirees head to NH than to FL, SC, or NC (see an older MassInc emmigration white paper … can’t put my finger on it but it showed exactly where people are moving, state by state. NH was the big winner.)
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The FL Snowbirds, you are correct, have been leaving for 4 decades. For upper-income retirees, FL is doubly attractive because of the inheritance tax issue. Other states have nice climates, like AZ and NM, but not the popularity. So sez my estate planner.
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I won’t say we have a Mexican illegal problem, but illegals are coming to MA (I heard many more from Central America, and not via Mexico.) You only have to drive through Framingham to get a sense that Brazil is send a few folks our way.
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I would look more at the restaurant and commercial cleaning industries than to day laborer pick up. You’re so correct than there’s more work elsewhere than in MA.
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Except, perhaps, on the Cape and Islands. It’s only a guess, but when relators I know on MVY and ACK begin recommending “undocumented” painters who do a better job than US citizen islanders, at a third the price, your know something’s up.
It’s possible that NH is the leading single state, but New England isn’t the leading region. The Globe survey found the warmer Southeast is the most popular destination region for Bay Staters.
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And while there may be an additional inheritence benefit to the very wealthy, the older folks I know who moved from here (and NY and CT) to FL did so mostly because they prefer golfing, walking outdoors, sitting at poolside/beachside, driving (yikes!), and socializing with other seniors rather than sitting in a snow-bound city apartment all day, too afraid to walk on icy sidewalks, stand in the cold outdoors for more than 5 minutes, or drive in the snow.
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My uncle from St. Albans, VT, who moved with his wife to FL, uses one of those portable oxygen tanks which kept him pretty much homebound all winter. In the FL community where they moved, they have walkways designed especially for these kinds of needs (and stuff like wheelchairs) plus round-the clock medical staff on site. Much better than depending upon an ambulance in St. Albans in February…
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Unfortunately, the Globe didn’t break-out respondents who were retirees & seniors.
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As for illegals, sure they’re coming here. But I don’t think either in total numbers or proportionately it’s anywhere near the public cost issue it is in states like GA, TX, AZ, NM, CA, CO the Carolinas and FL. These people come here mostly to work in unskilled labor, and the available work in those other states make them much bigger magnets for illegals than any free stuff they might get in MA.
Shep, this is against the rules:
“Stop being a wishful-thinking moron.”
Knock off the rudeness. You’ve been warned.
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And, if you can “reliably tell us” something about immigration, why not give us a link, like our rules say? “Link sources.” That’s what that means.
This is the classic sign of a weak argument: invective, rather than reason. More to the point, it broke our rules. I almost hit delete on Shep’s post, which would have been a pity because it must have taken some time to write and there were some good points, but decided C’s warning would be better.
Sorry about my name-calling. Warning heeded.
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About the link on immigration … we purchase whole binders of commercial demographic data for the housing industry. Much of it is updated quarterly. It’s the same data pension funds and national apartment companies use. So no link is available.
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But I think if one looks at MassInc’s 2 or 3 reports on population published in the past few years, you’ll get a sense of the move-in/move-out dynamics we see statistically.
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I stand by my previous statement that of there’s a 50,000-person net replacement of middle-class and retirees with low-income/min. wage, large-family immigrants, many from off-shore. This figure does not include the illegal immigration population.
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MassInc did one such study (can’t find it in their on-line library) “Changing Face of MA” or something like that.
People who APPEAR to be residents are actually spending time in FL not because they like it, but for tax and life insurance reasons. More and more retirees who demand services here plan to take their cash elsewhere. Heck, even Rose Kennedy was magically declared to be a Florida resident when she died, even though she hadn’t been out of Hyannisport in years, and it was Barnstable EMT’s that answered any 911 calls, so her will could be probated in Florida and avoid Mass. taxes.
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I remember when Eric Kriss, former head of Administration and Finance, got into a WORLD of trouble when he gave a speech to the Boston Chamber, saying that the balance of ‘givers’, taxpayers, and ‘takers’, consumers of services, was dangerously out of whack in Mass. and was approaching a tipping point. He was subjected to all kinds of criticism – but then again, so was Sen. Moynihan when he warned about the dangers of the welfare state.
Do you have any hard numbers of people actually leaving MA for Florida solely or even mostly because of tax and insurance advantages –even though they don’t like it there?
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The US population been moving steadily south and west in search of warmer climes and more space for decades now. Even in the Globe survey –which was just 524 respondents and did not denote retirees– the southeast was the most popular destination region.
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People all over the USA have been scamming on residency for years to gain every kind of financial advantage, vote illegally, avoid child-support, etc. FL in particular has long been a destination for less honorable super-wealthy folk who take advantage of the Sunshine State’s homestead law that prevents creditors from seizing your primary residence.
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But I’m not seeing much hard evidence (as opposed to anecdotal evidence) that large numbers of those leaving MA do so because of taxes and insurance.
and while I tend to agree with Cos on most things, I’d like to issue a concurring opinion: we need to focus on what makes it good for people here and acknowledge why they are leaving.
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and the Boston Globe is merely reporting on something that plenty of Massachusetts think tanks have been talking about for at least the past 5 years.
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with housing and jobs, it’s something of a chicken and egg dilemma — although I believe the conventional wisdom is cheap housing first, to attract more emlpoyers who won’t have to pay their employees as much to live here.
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Arguably, this and healthcare are the two most important, over-arching issues the Commonwealth faces. And they are having very real consequences.
to attract more emlpoyers who won’t have to pay their employees as much to live here.
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… is why we need statewide universal health care not funded by employers. Salaries are predictable, health care costs aren’t. They’re one of the biggest drains on hiring, and the most common causes of labor disputes. If there were one state where employers just didn’t have to deal with it, at all, they’d come flocking.
That’s it in a word. It isn’t just business, it isn’t just housing – it’s the Massachusetts attitude.
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I always said that if it rained today, by tomorrow somebody will have filed a bill to mandate umbrella carrying, and by next Thursday, somebody else would have filed a bill mandating that all umbrellas be purple, and some other activist would come out against the purple umbrella conspiracy, and claim that they were trying to stifle the proliferation of safety-friendly yellow umbrellas, and then a support group would form and claim that umbrellas were anti-precipitation, and should be banned entirely, while another bill was filed…
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While we all just stood there wet.
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This permeates EVERY aspect of life – cars, homes, business, dogs, cats, cereal boxes, television, telephones, electricity, and ON AND ON.
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THAT is why I am a lonely champion of NOT using the Courts and NOT using the legislature to solve every problem known to humanity.
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After a while, the proliferation of imperative and conflicting mandates just becomes too wearing (especialy since 80% are only enforced on a random basis, creating scofflaws and opportunities for punitive enforcement) and people move on to a less regimented place.
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Not me. I was born here, and I’m gonna take it back!
or should we even bother, and let the cards fall as they may.
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It’s easy to attack trivial legislation and politics, but this housing problem has been percolating for a while. And, as things are now, the market will not fix it.
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what’s the answer?
that restricts the production of housing units in this state.
And how did you get that number, or is this just more “we know the WMDs are there” conservative hyperbole. Remember, this is a reality-based blog: we’re looking for constructive, specific suggestions.
+1
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Where’s it end? Health Care for All begets Home Insurance for All begets Housing for Free for All.
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When voters don’t want it, and legislators can’t pass it, why then get the courts to decree it!
people in other part of the U.S. are much more courteous (and not just on the roads.) although, I find New Englanders to be much more sincere and genuine, which is an important quality not found everywhere. cough Southern California cough
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Regional culture is important (and to some degree, a natural branding for those who wish to market a region. hmmm.)
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But, all in all, I don’t think that’s a serious reason people skip town.
he was in a store and the clerk was just processing the transaction. He said he was a little put off by the apparent coldness. But then he said something, and the clerk responded with some friendly banter. He saw the same thing happen several times.
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He concluded that isn’t wasn’t coldness, it was just some respect for your privacy–unless you initiated conversation.
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I happen to think that’s a regional feature, not a bug. I kinda like the “its none of my business unless you want it to be” aspect of the place. But I grew up here, so maybe I’m just used to it.
The state continues to invest in infrastructure that makes it easier to get more trains a day from Providence into Boston than from Worcester into Boston. With more convenient times as well. AND there’s talk of more trains into/from Prov on track (/pun)
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For the LIFE of me I’ll never understand that.
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Have not read the globe piece so I’m not sure if that’s in there or not.
who lived in Providence and commuted by rail, daily, to work in Boston. The husband had a great job with an ad firm, but their quality of life was much nicer in Providence (as was their apartment.)
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One reason to connect the region is to provide people options, not everyone likes paying more than half of their income in rent each month and being overcharged on simple basics, like groceries.
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It is the market, around Boston, granted, but if you want to keep people in a region and attract people you have make it attractive to live here.
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more options is one way of doing that.
Great. Invest in a rail line to a metropolitan area losing jobs and population.
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Is that a good investment?
Worcester seems to think so. Hard to quantify, I suppose.
Increased home values in Worcester, possibly as result of commuter rail. (pdf, from Worcester Regional Research Bureau.)
One of the main problems I have with the idea that to retain people we create “SmartGrowth” is that it doesn’t seem like people want it. Instead, people want the (expensive in MA) suburban homes. An economic plan can’t work unless people have that economic plan as a goal. As one analyst put it:
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This does not bode well for the price of housing. Questions about housing need to not only deal with zoning laws and creating small, walkable communities, but also how we can make suburbs more affordable for the middle class because that is what drives the market.
Everywhere that really does smart growth, on balance, ends up being highly desired. The downside is that housing prices shoot up. Brookline, Cambridge, heck Boulder Colorado and Santa Cruz California too. Plenty of people want it if you do it well. Catch-22.
I have family who moved to the Atlanta suburbs (Norcross) from Connecticut about eight years ago. Over the past few years, their county has been growing by an astronomical number of several thousand people a month –people are moving there from everywhere, but especially the northeast and midwest.
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They have a huge brand new house, two expensive nice cars, a plasma TV, and lots of expensive stuff. The local public schools are very good, but they send their 2 kids to an excellent private school nearby.
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All of this is affordable because they get so much more for their dollar in Georgia than New England. But they live in one of dozens of bland, cookie-cutter gated communities in which every house looks pretty much the same, neighbors barely know one another, and you have to get in your car as soon as you walk out the front door because there is literally nothing within walking distance.
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You can do most of everything without ever leaving your car, including shop at dive-through stores and buy lunch at drive-through eateries, so they now have one of the highest obesity rates in the nation and traffic just as bad as in Alanta proper.
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But they love it there, and say they can’t imagine enduring another cold, snow-filled winter up north. They miss some of the cultural opportunities (the arts, proximity to NYC & Boston) but not the “town common” lifestyle; they prefer having their own set-up and not having to deal with other people (they don’t really even like the indigenous Southerners all that much).
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I think a lot of people are making similar values choices, which are fine on one level, but also raise some complex questions about whether its purely “good” or “bad” that people leave MA.
I’ve lived and worked in London, Singapore, Hong Kong, Los Angeles and New York for more than a year each. Massachusetts residents are the friendliest of the lot, I think. They have a common culture that unites them, and a shared sense of history, among other characteristics. They are also among the most tolerant. I think a big reason people are leaving is because of the economic mismanagement of our Republican governor: re-ignite the Massachusetts Miracle under effective leadership and see just how unimportant cold winters are to population stability.
They would never acknowledge that this one-party state has become a moral and political cesspool.
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Family unfriendly, business unfriendly, over taxed and over regulated, this “commonwealth” certainly lives up to it’s motto; “you make it – we’ll take it”.
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I’m currently in the process of converting my business from a brick & mortar to an internet based enterprise.
Once the conversion is complete, I’ll ditch my overvalued Cape home and beat it the hell out of here.
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It’s sad, really. I grew up here, and I love it, from a geographical standpoint.
But I can barely read the local/regional sections these days without wanting to hurl.
We are not overtaxed. Taxes in Massachusetts are a smaller share of personal income than in most states. In FY 2002, state and local taxes were 9.6% of personal income â or 38th out of the 50 states. http://massbudget.org/
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We are Family Friendly. Some of my friends with families can get married in Massachusetts, but can’t get married in any other state.
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The last four Governors in our “one party” state have been Republicans.
I just LOVE IT when you guys use that line! Hahaha!
What line? We got a lot of ’em here, “geo”.
I moved here from Cincinnati, Ohio recently. Here’s a list of some impressions:
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Things I like about Boston/Massachusetts: – Intellectualism (neat intellectual clubs, 100+ universities, conferences, etc.) – Many more (and much higher paying) high-tech jobs – More entertainment – Good transit system – High-tech business community / “startup culture” – No megachurch fundamentalism – Old area with neat history
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Things I don’t like about this area: – Ridiculously high real-estate costs – Ugly residential architecture (BAN VINYL SIDING!!!) – There seems to be more litter and trash lying around, especially near highways and in empty lots and such
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Neutral items about the area: – Weather (Cincy is warmer in winter but gloomier) – Taxes (higher but not much higher than Cincinnati)
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… and now for the flip side:
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Things I liked about Cincinnati: – Low cost of living – Better architecture (I love art deco and high victorian) – Affordable real estate – Pretty land / parks / hills / etc. – Seemed to be cleaner (at least in most areas)
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Things I didn’t like about Cincinnati: – Fewer and crummier jobs (at least in technology) – Seems to be losing high-tech jobs – Very low pay scales (moots the cheap housing point) – Lack of entertainment – Anti-intellectual culture – Ultraconservative risk-averse business climate – No entrepreneurship infrastructure to speak of – Crawling with fundamentalists – Crummy/nonexistant transit system
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Basically, I moved here for career reasons first and then personal/cultural/social reasons second. I had some family in Cincinnati, but I have a little bit in the northeast too which is one reason I chose here over California.